The volume of charging pile business is just around the corner, and the company's performance is expected to usher in an inflection point in 2023. (1) from the perspective of Europe and the United States: the new energy vehicle industry in Europe and the United States is in a stage of rapid development. According to the IEA forecast, the sales CAGR of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States will reach 21.4% and 7.9% respectively from 2021 to 2025, and the CAGR of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States will reach 7.9% and 15.3% respectively. Taking into account the construction volume of charging piles in various countries, it is estimated that the market size of rechargeable piles in Europe and the United States will reach US $72.0 billion in 2023-2025, and the CAGR in 2022-2025 will reach 85% compared with the same period last year.
(2) from the perspective of the industry: in recent years, domestic charging pile enterprises intend to go out to sea to promote, but they are faced with many realistic pain points, such as certification standards, product popularity, overseas sales channels and maintenance channels, etc. the pace of domestic charging pile industry to enter overseas is still relatively slow.
(3) from the point of view of the company: Daotong Technology charging pile business has industrial logic, and its reusability of existing business advantages can be noted, including product word-of-mouth and overseas channels (the company's comprehensive diagnostic products are well-known in Europe and America. Comprehensive layout of overseas sales channels), accumulation of existing business technology (technologies such as automobile communication protocols accumulated by comprehensive diagnosis products can make the company's charging pile products have the characteristics of wide vehicle coverage and good vehicle compatibility, etc.), business model (comprehensive diagnostic products have realized the business model of hardware sales + software services Reusability can be realized in many dimensions, such as business model reuse in charging pile business, product competition strategy (high performance-to-price ratio) and so on.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 167 million yuan, 449 million yuan and 748 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 0.37 yuan per share, 0.99 yuan per share and 1.65 yuan per share for EPS. With reference to comparable companies, give a reasonable valuation of 39 times PE in 2023, with a corresponding fair value of 38.72 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The uncertainty of RMB exchange rate: the uncertainty of supply chain, the uncertainty of new energy business expansion, the uncertainty of epidemic and so on.