Source: Wall Street
Author: Zhou Xiaowen
The last central bank week of the year is approaching, and the world's central banks will announce their latest interest rate decisions within 24 hours next Wednesday.
The Fed will hold its FOMC meeting next Wednesday, and markets expect benchmark US interest rates to rise by 50 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4-4.5 per cent, the highest level since 2007.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, and central banks in Switzerland, Norway and Mexico are also likely to raise interest rates.
In January this year, most policy makers thought they could curb inflation through stable tightening; however, according to media statisticsMore than 50 central banks have raised interest rates by at least one 75 basis point this year, and many have raised interest rates repeatedly this year.
More and more market viewpoints think thatInflation has peaked in most placesIt is also expected that the Fed will turn at some point in the future, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still said in his speechThe focus remains on curbing inflation and mentioning the dangers of premature relaxation.
Us: expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points
The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this week and start to slow the pace of tightening, but that doesn't mean it will stop raising interest rates next year.
If the Fed announced a 50 basis point increase in interest rates at its FOMC meeting this month, it would mean that the US has raised interest rates by 4.25 per cent so far this year.
Next Tuesday, the US government will release the key inflation indicator CPI in November. According to statistics from economists, the overall and core CPI growth in the United States is slowing this year, and the data released this week is expected to reach the last peak.
Europe: expected to raise interest rates by 50 or 75 basis points, QT may be launched next year
Like the Fed, the market also expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week, but it is also possible to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
Last month, eurozone inflation slowed for the first time in a year and a half, but growth is still at 10 per cent, so the possibility of a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike cannot be completely ruled out.
In addition, the ECB is likely to announce quantitative tightening (QT), which economists are now expected to launch in the first quarter of next year.
The ECB board's decision will also be affected by new quarterly economic forecasts, with growth forecasts for 2023 likely to be revised downwards and inflation forecasts raised.
UK: the economy continues to decline as interest rates are expected to rise by 50 basis points
The bank of England is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.5 per cent, the highest level since 2008.
Inflation in the UK has risen to a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent, and the Bank of England said it would take strong action to prevent a wage price spiral.
However, the UK is experiencing the longest recession since records began in the 1920s, and economists expect it to last until 2024, with unemployment rising to 6.5 per cent over the next two years.
At the same time, British households are being squeezed by the tightest cost of living in history-energy prices are at least six times higher than usual and colder-than-normal weather is hitting the UK.
Switzerland: expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, Swiss franc to support economy
As an European country with low inflation, Sweden's inflation rate is only 3 per cent, and the SNB is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points instead of repeating the aggressive pace of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September.
The strong Swiss franc is propping up the Swiss economy and avoiding imported inflation. But the market expects the SNB to reiterate that it will intervene in the money markets if necessary.
Norway: interest rate hike is expected to be 25 basis points, and the interest rate hike cycle is drawing to a close.
The market expects the Norwegian central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and a rate hike in December is likely to be the last of the Norwegian rate hike cycle.
Last month's inflation data showed a slowdown in both overall and underlying price growth in Norway, leading some analysts to expect Norway's interest rate hike cycle to come to an end. At the same time, other recent data have shown Norway's most pessimistic economic outlook since the 2008 financial crisis, supporting this view.
However, the latest forecast from the Norwegian central bank in September shows that interest rates will peak at 3 per cent throughout the winter and will rise by another 25 basis points early next year.
Mexico & Colombia: expected to raise interest rates by 50 and 100 basis points
Mexico and Colombia are likely to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, ending the "unprecedented" year of interest rate hikes in Latin America.
The market expects the central bank of Mexico to raise interest rates by 50 basis points for the 13th time in a row, bringing the key benchmark interest rate to 10.5%.
Analysts believe that Mexico's overall inflation process has peaked, but core inflation is still above 8 per cent, and interest rates are expected to peak at 11 per cent in 2023.
Next Friday, the Bank of Colombia is expected to raise interest rates for the third time in a row by 100 basis points, overall for the 11th time in a row, with the key interest rate reaching 12%.
Some economists see the rate hike as the end of the cycle, while others argue that Colombia will raise interest rates by another 100 basis points to 13 per cent.
Edit / irisz