Global macro

• The short-term diving of the futures of the three major stock indexes of US stocks

In the United States, the annual PPI rate in November was 7.4%, with a forecast value of 7.2%, a previous value of 8%, and a monthly rate of 0.3%, a forecast value of 0.2%, and a previous value of 0.2%. Core PPI grew at an annual rate of 6.2 per cent in November. After the release of PPI data, U. S. stock futures dived in the short term. As of press time, the futures of the three major stock indexes all fell slightly.

• The Fed may raise interest rates to 6.5%! Xiaomo sent me a reassurance: the market selling is limited.

JPMorgan Chase & Co, a strategist led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, decided to study a situation in which the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to 6.5% in the second half of 2023, although the interest rate market thought it was only 10% likely to happen, and it was widely seen as an apocalyptic scenario. After all, the last time the federal funds rate reached 6.5% was in 2000, when the level of the policy rate caused very serious losses to the risk market. However, during this year's market turmoil, investors have generally reduced their positions in stocks and bonds, and if the Fed raises interest rates to levels not seen in 20 years, the market's actions limit more selling, Panigirtzoglou said.

• Global fund managers expect double-digit gains in the stock market in 2023

According to market news, an informal survey of 134fund managers, including Blackrock and Goldman Sachs Group, found that 71 per cent of respondents expected the stock market to rise and 19 per cent expected the stock market to fall. Among those who are expected to rise, the stock market is expected to return an average of 10%. However, 48 per cent and 45 per cent of respondents said the stock market could derail again due to stubbornly high inflation or a severe recession, which was their biggest concern for the coming year. The stock market is also likely to hit a new low in early 2023, and many believe the rally will be skewed towards the second half of the year. In addition, the survey shows that these respondents prefer technology stocks and Chinese stocks.

• Wall Street bullish Jim Paulsen: the S & P 500 will hit 5000 in the next 12 months

At a time when almost everyone on wall street is wary of a recession, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at independent investment research firm The Leuthold Group, thinks u.s. stocks will rise by at least 25% next year. He expects the S & P to hit 5000 in the next 12 months.

Jim Paulsen said investors were too concerned about the impact of the Fed and its rate hikes. He believes that the Fed is not the only policy driver, there are other factors, many of which are beginning to show signs of easing.

• Bank of America: don't bet on the stock market rising after the Fed raises interest rates for the last time

Michael Hartnett, BofA's chief investment strategist, and his team recently released a report saying that while investors generally expect the Fed's last rate hike this year to slow to 50 basis points, historical data suggest that investors in US stocks should proceed with caution.

During the deflationary period of the past 30 years, US stocks fared better than other assets after the Fed's rate-raising boots fell to the ground, according to the data. However, they stressed in their report that US stocks fell after the Fed stopped raising interest rates during periods of persistently high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. In the current cycle, they expect the Fed to raise interest rates for the last time in March 2023, roughly in line with the bets of most interest rate futures traders.

• Top 10 of the 2022 Hurun World Top 500: all from the United States, three Chinese companies failed the list

The top 10 are worth 71 trillion yuan, down 10% from last year, but still account for 21% of the total value of the Hurun G500, according to the Hurun Global Top 2022 released by the Hurun Research Institute today. Alphabet replaced Amazon.Com Inc in third place. UnitedHealth Group Inc Group, Johnson & Johnson, Exxon Mobil Corp and Visa Inc are new in the top ten. The top 10 exits were Meta (down 64 per cent to 13th) and three Chinese companies: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (down 44 per cent to 17th), Tencent (down 62 per cent to 26th) and BABA (down 71 per cent to 48th). The top ten are all from the United States. Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Berkshire Hathaway and Exxon Mobil Corp are the only companies in the top 10 this year that were also in the top 10 a decade ago.

Hot news

• Star technology stocks fell before the market.

• Twitter is heavily in debt, and Tesla, Inc. 's stock may become Musk ATM again.

According to some people familiar with the matter, some Wall Street banks that support Musk are considering using$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Stock backed by a new margin loan to replace him in$Twitter (TWTR.US)$Some of the high-interest debt, that is, directly consider margin loans backed by Tesla, Inc. 's shares to reduce Twitter's risky debt ratio, and Musk will be personally responsible for repaying the loans. According to media reports, these people familiar with the matter said that the margin loan was one of several options discussed between Morgan Stanley's banking group and Mr Musk's personal advisors. the aim is to ease Mr Musk's burden of $13 billion in debt used to acquire the social media company in October.

• It is said that Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai factory will suspend production of Model Y at the end of the month.

According to an internal memo, Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai plant will suspend production of Model Y electric cars from December 25 to January 1, according to people familiar with the matter. The suspension of production of Model Y is also part of Tesla, Inc. 's previous plan to cut production by 30 per cent, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Shanghai factory is Tesla, Inc. 's most important manufacturing center, and the Model Y is also Tesla, Inc. 's best-selling model. Production disruptions at Model Y are likely to last until early January, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

• FTC voted to file a lawsuit to prevent Microsoft Corp from acquiring Activision Blizzard.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is seeking to stop$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Buy for $69 billion$Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US)$, saying that cooperation between the two will hurt competition. The committee adopted the complaint submitted to its internal court by a vote of 3 to 1. Regulators say Microsoft Corp's stake in Activision Blizzard could limit competitors' access to Activision Blizzard's biggest games, hurting other players in the $200 billion game market.

• Costco Wholesale Corp's Q1 revenue fell short of expectations, and net sales increased by 8% over the same period last year.

$Costco (COST.US)$Total revenue in the first quarter was $54.437 billion, up 8.1 per cent from a year earlier and $240 million below market expectations, while net profit was $1.364 billion, up 3 per cent from a year earlier. Basic and diluted earnings per share were both $3.07, compared with $2.99 and $2.98 a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.10, below market expectations by $0.060. Net sales of Q1 were $53.437 billion, compared with $49.417 billion a year earlier, up 8.1 per cent from a year earlier. The company's same-store sales increased by 6.6% year-on-year, including 9.3% in the United States, 2.4% in Canada, 3.1% in other international regions and 3.7% in e-commerce.

• Lululemon fell more than 6% before trading. Q3 profit and Q4 revenue guidance were lower than expected.

Canadian yoga clothing production$Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$It fell 6.34% to $350.78 in pre-market trading. The company's third-quarter revenue was $1.86 billion, exceeding expectations of $1.81 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.62, below expectations of $1.96. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of 26.05-2.655 billion, with a median value lower than expected of 2.65 billion; revenue for fiscal 22 is expected to be $79.44-7.994 billion, including a higher-than-expected $7.96 billion. The company CFO Meghan Frank said that the third quarter will be the peak of inventory, inventory growth will slow at the end of the fourth quarter.

• Broadcom rose more than 4% before trading, and revenue is expected to exceed expectations in the next quarter.

$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$It rose 4.13% to $553 in early trading. The company's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 is $8.93 billion and is expected to be $8.9 billion; net profit is $3.359 billion, up 68.9% from a year earlier; and quarterly dividend rose 12% to $4.60. Revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 is expected to be $8.9 billion, above market expectations of $8.8 billion.

• DocuSign rose 11% before trading, surpassing expectations in the third quarter.

Electronic signature company$DocuSign (DOCU.US)$Pre-market earnings surged more than 11%, with Q3 revenue of $645.5 million, up from $545.5 million in the same period last year and market expectations of $627.2 million. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were 57 cents, down from 58 cents in the same period last year, but higher than market expectations of 42 cents. The company said it expects revenue of $637 million to $641 million in the fourth quarter and $2.493 billion to $2.497 billion in fiscal 2023. In September, the company expects full-year revenue of $2.47 billion to $2.482 billion; analysts expect fourth-quarter revenue of $641.7 million and full-year revenue of $2.48 billion.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Hot Chinese stocks vary in pre-market ups and downs

• Li Auto Inc. made a net loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the third quarter, Shen Yanan stepped down as president

Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $released its results for the third quarter of 2022, which ended September 30th. Financial report data show that Li Auto Inc. 's revenue in the third quarter was 9.34 billion yuan, less than the market expectation of 9.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2% over the same period last year and 7% month-on-month growth. Revenue fell two times in a row at the end of the month. CompanyAt the same time, it was announced that in order to devote more time to personal affairs, Shen Yanan has resigned as executive director and president of the Company, effective January 1, 2023. As of press time, the ideal market was down more than 2% before trading.

• Positive stack, Bilibili Inc. rose more than 4% before trading.

It rose 7.7% in the last trading day.$Bilibili (BILI.US)$It rose by more than 4% before trading. According to the news, the animation of "three-body" will be broadcast at 11: 00 this Saturday. Yipu Kaitian is produced by the co-producer, while Bilibili Inc. 's affiliated company holds about 30% of Yipu Kaitian Culture Communication Co., Ltd. In addition, JPMorgan Chase refers to the growing optimism about the company's long-term earnings outlook, raising the target price to $30 and maintaining an overweight rating.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's November revenue was 222.7 billion New Taiwan dollars, an increase of 50.2% over the same period last year and 5.9% from the previous month.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd today released his revenue report for November 2022. Consolidated revenue in November 2022 was about NT $222.706 billion, an increase of 5.9 per cent month-on-month and 50.2 per cent year-on-year. Revenue from January to November in 2022 was about NT $2.0713 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 44.6 per cent.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

21:30 November PPI of USA

23:00 the initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in December and the final monthly rate of wholesale inventory in October (%)

01:00 the Federal Reserve releases its quarterly financial account report.

02:00 Total number of drilling in the United States for the week ended December 9th

04:30 Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases weekly position report