智通财经APP获悉，华泰证券发布研究报告称，12月7日，国务院应对新冠肺炎疫情联防联控机制综合组印发《新冠病毒抗原检测应用方案》。该行认为，该方案的印发再次强化了抗原自测在国内疫情防控优化新阶段下的重要作用，建议关注有产品、有获证、有产能的相关厂家。产业链相关公司包括东方生物(688298.SH)、乐普医疗(300003.SZ)、明德生物(002932.SZ)、热景生物(688068.SH)、奥泰生物(688606.SH)等。
适用人群及场景广泛，需求量或较大。《方案》指出，新冠抗原检测适用对象包括：1)有自主抗原检测需求人员;2)人员密集场所人员;3)居家和养老机构老年人。其中，《方案》对第二类和第三类对象的检测频次和试剂储备作出细化，明确规定：1)人员密集机构应储备适量试剂以备检测;2)居家和养老机构老人应每周开展2次检测，且各基层医疗机构按照服务人口总数的15-20%进行储备抗原试剂。我国21年65岁及以上老人约2亿人(Wind)，在检测持续1-2个季度的假设条件下，则对应居家和养老机构老人抗原检测需求约50-100亿人次，按终端价3.91元/人份(广东联盟集采最低价)测算，对应市场规模或超百亿元。
抗原检测简单便捷，重要性有望提升。新冠抗原自测产品具备使用便捷、检测快速等优点，能够实现“快筛快检”，是疫情防控筛查的重要手段之一。由于国内人口基数较大且自测刚需人员较多(人员密集场所的人员、居家老年人及养老机构中的老年人等)，叠加抗原自测试剂价格相对较低且购买相对便捷(药店、线上等渠道)等因素，抗原检测在国内疫情防控中的重要性有望逐渐提升，建议关注板块潜在的市场需求。
风险提示：产品招标降价，产品销售不达预期等。
Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huatai released a research report saying that on December 7, the State Council's comprehensive team of joint prevention and control mechanisms for COVID-19 's epidemic situation issued the "novel coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Plan." The bank believes that the issuance of the program once again strengthens the important role of antigen self-testing in the new stage of domestic epidemic prevention and control optimization, and suggests paying attention to relevant manufacturers with products, certificates, and production capacity. Related companies in the industry chain include 688298.SH, 300003.SZ, 002932.SZ, 688068.SH, 688606.SH and so on.
It is suitable for a wide range of people and scenes, and the demand may be large.The Program points out that the applicable targets for COVID-19 antigen detection include: 1) people with independent antigen testing needs; 2) people in densely populated places; and 3) elderly people in home and pension institutions. Among them, the Program refines the testing frequency and reagent reserve of the second and third categories of objects, clearly stipulating that: 1) densely populated institutions should reserve an appropriate amount of reagents for testing; 2) the elderly in home and pension institutions should be tested twice a week, and primary health care institutions reserve antigen reagents according to 15-20% of the total service population. There are about 200 million people aged 65 and above in China in 21 years (Wind). Under the assumption that the test lasts for 1-2 quarters, the corresponding demand for antigen testing for the elderly in homes and pension institutions is about 50-10 billion person-times. According to the final price of 3.91 yuan per person (the lowest price adopted by Guangdong Alliance), the corresponding market size or more than 10 billion yuan.
Antigen detection is simple and convenient, and its importance is expected to be improved.COVID-19 antigen self-test products have the advantages of convenient use and rapid detection, and can realize "rapid screening and rapid detection", which is one of the important means of epidemic prevention and control screening. Due to the large population base in China and a large number of people in need of self-test rigidity (personnel in densely populated places, the elderly at home and the elderly in pension institutions, etc.), the price of superimposed antigen self-test reagents is relatively low and it is relatively convenient to buy (pharmacies, online channels, etc.) and other factors, the importance of antigen detection in domestic epidemic prevention and control is expected to gradually increase, it is suggested to pay attention to the potential market demand of the sector.
Risk Tips:Product bidding and price reduction, product sales are not up to expectations and so on.
