Today, inner housing stocks are up high, Rongxin China is up nearly 44%, Hejing Pacific and Longguang Group are up more than 24%, and Zhengrong Real Estate is up more than 20%.

12.6 the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee did not mention "housing speculation".

The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 6 did not continue to put forward real estate-related policies, superimposing the recent heavy policy dividends on the real estate financing side, making the market expect further policy action in real estate.Therefore, there is news that the upcoming central economic work conference on real estate policy is still worth looking forward to.

In addition, the recent fine-tuning of housing purchase restrictions in several cities has also further stimulated the bullish sentiment in the market.According to the Financial Associated Press, it has been reported recently that some banks in Nanjing have made adjustments to the commercial mortgage loan policy for second homes. If buyers settle their first home loans, the down payment ratio for second homes will be reduced to 30%; for those who have not settled their first home loans, the down payment ratio for second homes will be reduced to 40%.

In this regard, a number of real estate institutions in Nanjing said that some banks have begun to implement. The staff of the housing loan department of the Nanjing Gulou Branch of the Construction Bank and the Nanjing Maqun Branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said that they did adjust the mortgage rules of the second home, which can now be operated in accordance with the relevant regulations.

Prior to this, Wuhan and Xiamen recently adjusted housing purchase restrictions regionally. Since the third quarter of this year, a number of second-tier hot cities have begun to optimize and adjust purchase restrictions. According to statistics, optimization policies for core second-tier cities such as Qingdao, Jinan, Suzhou, Tianjin, Chengdu and Xi'an have been introduced one after another. Among them, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Xi'an and other places have narrowed the purchase restrictions.

The fourth arrow of real estate is coming?

In fact, inner housing stocks were pulled up on December 6. At that time, it was rumored that the fourth arrow of real estate financing would fall to the ground.

Chinese regulators have asked Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank Of China to provide offshore loans guaranteed by domestic assets to property companies by December 10, according to market news.

Several media have confirmed that the news is true. A head of private equity fund said that if the above news is confirmed, it means the resumption of overseas financing, helping real estate companies to repay offshore debts.

The data show that a number of real estate companies are facing the dilemma of overseas debt maturity. The Kerry Research Center pointed out that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the total maturity of domestic and foreign bonds of 200 core real estate enterprises reached 181.2 billion yuan, of which overseas bonds were about 61.7 billion yuan. In the coming year, the external debt pressure of housing enterprises is still not to be underestimated.

According to the report of the Middle Index Research Institute, the peak of overseas bond repayment of real estate enterprises in 2023 is concentrated in January, April and October, with maturity of 56.8 billion yuan, 55.6 billion yuan and 43.5 billion yuan respectively.

There has been a major logical change in real estate policy this year, and the policy intention before November is very clear-to focus on the real estate demand side, open house purchase restrictions and improve residents' home purchase expectations. However, after November, it is more important to turn to the financing of real estate enterprises, highlighting "stabilizing real estate enterprises" and "protecting the main body of the market". The positive policy attitude also significantly exceeded market expectations.

This round of real estate policy combination starts from three financing channels: credit, bonds and equity, commonly known as the "three arrows". The first arrow supports credit, the second arrow focuses on bonds, the third arrow liberalizes equity, and the three arrows will confirm the inflection point of the financing environment of real estate enterprises.

Summary

For the follow-up investment value of real estate, let's go back to the troika that underpins the fundamentals of China's economy-investment, consumption, export, export and real estate are the top priorities. It can be said that the double cycle pattern of China's internal and external circulation depends on the performance of export real estate.

But falling into the contraction range of PMI in the world's major economies means that the economy will be poor, which will be a drag on China's export performance.

The latest November export figures have indicated that China's exports will not be immune. Since export growth turned negative for the first time this year in October, the contraction intensified in November. In dollar terms, China's exports fell 8.7% in November from a year earlier, compared with a 0.3% decline in previous values.

The meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee set the goal of economic work in 2023 as "highlighting the work of stabilizing growth, employment and prices, effectively preventing and defusing major risks, and promoting the overall improvement of economic operation." to achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.

In order to stabilize the economy, the importance of the real estate support economy has re-emerged under the drag of declining exports. therefore, under the background of the strength of domestic manufacturing and infrastructure investment and the reversal of the real estate predicament, we can appropriately pay attention to the investment opportunities of the real estate industry.

However, the inner housing stock index has risen as much as 67% since the beginning of November, and it is important to grasp the timing and target.