Specifically:

1) there is relatively little real estate in the follow-up policy space, but there are still many points to look forward to in the expectation of epidemic prevention optimization policy.

After the landing of the real estate three arrows one after another, the supply-side policy is basically fulfilled, while the demand-side has successively lowered the LPR5-year interest rate, down payment ratio and so on, and the follow-up policy space is limited.

At present, the optimization policy of epidemic prevention is still in its infancy, with the deepening of the degree of liberalization, if the spread speed and severity of the epidemic exceed expectations, the policy may face a dilemma. According to the experience of the six Asian countries, according to the policy adjustment model and the intensity of control, it can be divided into three modes, and there are many options in terms of policy space and direction.

2) the final effect of investors' real estate policy is better than that of epidemic prevention policy.

Investors' expectations for the follow-up policy effects of the two are different. Although the real estate market has witnessed many rounds of policy effect because of the debt problem, the market has seen many rounds of policy take effect, so the final effect of the policy is still relatively recognized as a whole.

In terms of epidemic prevention policy, in the past two years, the market has repeatedly experienced several policy liberalizations and expected consumer repair, but all of them have been falsified. Therefore, this round of investors are still in the stage of confidence in policy optimization but do not produce consistent expectations for the subsequent actual degree of repair, which remains to be verified by the data.

Follow-up real estate or gradually turn to other directions of the industrial chain to fill up, the medium-term dimension is waiting for data verification.At present, there is a general consensus in the market that the expectations of the real estate sector are more consistent, one is that the current policy is stronger than expected, and the other is that the short-term logic of the real estate sector can be found (2008 and 2015).

Considering that the possibility of further real estate policies exceeding expectations is already small, the current short-term transaction logic is concentrated in the lower reaches of the real estate, and the follow-up probability gradually turns to a supplementary increase in other directions of the industrial chain. the medium-term dimension waits for data verification before it can open the market of the industrial chain. judging from past cases, it generally takes about half a year for real estate sales and house price expectations to stabilize after the refinancing policy.

There are still twists and turns in the follow-up short-term offline consumption after the opening of epidemic prevention, and the growth of demand for medical services in the medium term is relatively certain.

1) the short-term dimension of offline consumption scenarios or repeated twists and turns, while the supply-side logistics production liberalization is more persistent. Referring to overseas experience, even after the release of epidemic prevention, the high probability of offline consumption data will not see a retaliatory rebound, or even a negative stimulus due to the surge in short-term positive diagnosis. therefore, the directions related to offline consumption scenarios are generally thematic, and the follow-up is likely to be repeated under the worries of further policy liberalization than expected and the surge in the number of new diagnoses. However, production logistics and other related directions as long as the release of epidemic prevention, even the rise of positive diagnosis will not curb the recovery of the logistics chain, the continuous logic is relatively smooth.

2) in the medium-term dimension, with the gradual relaxation of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the directly profitable medicine and medical device sectors (pharmacies, specific drugs, antigen testing and medical devices) may usher in a medium-term recovery.

Risk Tips:Overseas accelerated recession, policy is less than expected