Global macro

• The futures of the three major stock indexes of US stocks rose before the session.

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to December 3 was 230000, compared with an estimated 230000, compared with a previous value of 225000. After the initial data release, US stock futures rose slightly, with the Nasdaq futures up 0.56%, the S & P 500 index futures up 0.49% and the Dow futures up 0.37%.

• Dario: the market underestimates the Fed, and interest rates could rise to a "destructive" level of 6%

Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, warned on Wednesday that the Fed might push interest rates to "damaging and damaging" levels, which the market underestimated and did not react to, and that US stocks could be on the verge of falling. Mr Dalio said that since inflation was likely to remain in the 4.5 per cent range, exceeding the Fed's 2 per cent target, it would mean that the Fed would have to push interest rates closer to 6 per cent; however, the stock market has not yet reacted to the Fed's overshoot, on the contrary, the market has digested expectations of interest rate cuts and future inflation cooling.

Mr Dalio had previously predicted that interest rates above 4.5 per cent would trigger a recession and that US stocks could plunge 20 per cent, in line with forecasts by BofA, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.

• Bloomberg: global economic misery in 2023 is rarely seen in 30 years

Bloomberg economic research economist Scott Johnson predicts that as the energy shock caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to have an impact, the US economy will grow by only 2.4 per cent next year, down sharply from this year's forecast of 3.2 per cent and the lowest since 1993 (excluding 2009 and 2020, which do not include the effects of the financial crisis and the epidemic). The euro zone will fall into recession at the beginning of next year and the United States at the end of next year. By contrast, China's economy is expected to grow by more than 5% next year, mainly due to faster-than-expected optimization of epidemic prevention policies and government support for real estate.

• Dr. Doom Roubini: if the US economy falls into a severe recession, the S & P 500 will fall by 25%

Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini said that if the US economy fell into its worst recession in more than a decade, S & P could fall 25 per cent, the worst level of the bear market. He said the world's largest economy is unlikely to avoid recession because the fed raises interest rates amid high inflation and low unemployment; the s & p 500 usually falls 30% from its peak during short-term and mild recessions, while major stock indexes fell 50% during the global financial crisis in 2008. If we encounter a situation that is worse than a short-term mild recession but not as severe as the global financial crisis, the market still has 25 per cent potential downside.

• Bank of America: technology stocks are "value traps". Investors should not rush to withdraw from US stocks.

Bank of America Corporation strategist Savita Subramanian believes that professional investors will not abandon their long-standing preference for growth stocks and accept inflation trading at least until December.

The reality is that fund managers still largely prefer internet and software companies to oil and gas producers. Although the sub-index that tracks technology in the s & p 500 has fallen 27%, Subramanian still sees technology stocks as a "value trap." She says one of the main reasons there is still a lot of room for the shift to the energy industry is that the industry faces supply shortages. By contrast, technology companies are facing overcapacity and are now having to lay off staff as a result of increased demand from the epidemic.

• The survey shows that most individual investors are betting that the stock market will hit bottom next year and plan to buy large technology stocks.

Despite the cost of living crisis, most individual investors plan to invest the same or more money into the stock market in 2023 as this year, according to a new survey by Finimize, a London-based investment insight platform.

According to the survey, only 1% of individual investors said they planned to sell their investments in the new year, 65% said they would continue to invest, and 29% planned to increase their portfolios. The majority of respondents (72%) plan to increase their shareholdings next year, with 64% favored$Apple (AAPL.US)$、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$和$Meta Platforms (META.US)$And other large technology stocks.

• Russia: oil price cap has limited impact on oil production

Russia's energy ministry has rejected concerns that the oil price cap imposed by the Group of Seven will throw Russian oil production into chaos. Pavel Sorokin, first vice minister of the Russian Ministry of Energy, said, "our products have sufficient market principles in most markets." "any fluctuation in oil production" will not be higher than that in spring. Oil observers are tracking Russian oil production, fearing that the price cap imposed this week could force Russia to limit supply. Russia currently accounts for about 10% of the world's crude oil production. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country would not sell crude oil to any buyer who complied with the production limit agreement, a decision that could lead to a reduction in production.

Hot news

• Star technology stocks rose before the market.

• Oil stocks strengthened before trading, Exxon Mobil Corp rose by more than 2%

$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$、$TotalEnergies (TTE.US)$Increase by about 2%$BP PLC (BP.US)$、$Shell PLC (SHEL.US)$It's up more than 1%. On the face of the news, international oil prices rebounded after adjustments in the previous few trading days, with the United States and cloth rising $0.4 in the short term to $74.05 / barrel and $78.26 / barrel respectively.

In terms of individual stocks, Exxon Mobil Corp announced that the size of the stock buyback program would be expanded to $50 billion by 2024, including $15 billion in 2022.

• Zhu Xiaotong, head of Tesla, Inc. China, was promoted to Tesla, Inc. CEO? Foreign media: Musk Qin asked him to come to the Texas factory to grasp production capacity.

According to the media$Tesla (TSLA.US)$CEO Elon Musk has "named" Zhu Xiaotong to the United States to help run the Texas super factory. Zhu Xiaotong led a Chinese engineering team to the Texas super factory this week to help monitor its capacity expansion, according to sources. People familiar with the matter said it was not clear how long Zhu Xiaotong would stay or whether he would keep his job in Asia. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was down more than 1 per cent before trading.

• Sources say that Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai factory will shorten working hours next week, and the appointment of new employees will be postponed.

Tesla, Inc. will shorten the working hours of production line workers at the Shanghai factory as early as next Monday and has postponed the appointment of some new employees, according to reports. This further shows that the market demand for Tesla, Inc. electric vehicles has not met expectations. Tesla, Inc. 's Shanghai factory currently has two shifts a day, each working 11.5 hours, according to these people familiar with the matter. After the adjustment, there are also two shifts, but the working hours of each shift are reduced to 9.5 hours.

• Bankers who promised to help Musk buy Twitter are considering using Tesla, Inc. shares as collateral to provide margin loans

According to market news, promised to buy for Musk.$Twitter (TWTR.US)$Financing bankers are considering using Tesla, Inc. shares as collateral to provide margin loans to reduce Twitter's debt risk. They said the margin loan was one of several options discussed by the banking group led by Morgan Stanley and Musk's advisers to reduce Twitter's debt burden as a result of the acquisition of Musk. The focus of the discussion is how to replace 3 billion dollars of unsecured debt.

Sources said that the current negotiations are preliminary and no decision has been made. Representatives of Mr Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The revenue of game post station Q3 recorded the biggest decline in two years, and the game market as a whole declined this quarter.

$GameStop (GME.US)$Net sales of Q3 fell 8.5 per cent to $1.186 billion from $1.297 billion a year earlier, below analysts' forecasts of $1.39 billion; a net loss of $94.7 million, compared with $105.4 million a year earlier; and an adjusted loss of 31 cents per share, below expectations of 29 cents.

Ryan Cohen, who became chairman last year, has been trying to revive the growth of GameStop, which has slowed as players switch from buying game CDs to digital downloads. To make matters worse, GameStop's retail business was cancelled during the blockade, and supply restrictions on game consoles further affected performance. As of press time, the game post fell slightly in front of the market.

• Amazon.Com Inc, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Microsoft Corp and Oracle Corp won a $9 billion cloud computing contract from the U.S. Department of Defense.

The U.S. Department of Defense said$Amazon (AMZN.US)$、$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$和$Oracle (ORCL.US)$A $9 billion hybrid contract will be shared to provide the U.S. Department of Defense with secure cloud services worldwide. It is understood that the above four companies jointly provide their Joint Operations Cloud capability (JWCC) to the U.S. Department of Defense, and the related work will be carried out in Reston, Virginia, and completed by June 8, 2028. It is worth mentioning that the award of the contract, known as the "joint operations cloud capability" strategy, is in line with the efforts of the US Department of Defense to rely on multiple providers of remote operating infrastructure technology rather than on a single company. this is a strategy advocated during the Trump administration.

• At one point, Asmai's plate fell nearly 2%, and it was reported that the Netherlands wanted to promote a new ban on the export of chip equipment.

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$It was down 1.8% at $590.55 in pre-market trading. It has been reported that Dutch government officials plan to introduce new controls on China's export of wafer manufacturing equipment, which may ban the sale of equipment that makes 14nm or more advanced wafers, and reach an agreement with the US as soon as next month. The ban could hit ASML Holding NV. According to the latest annual report, China contributed about 15 per cent of ASML Holding NV's revenue last year.

• British American Tobacco PLC: American consumers are turning to cheaper cigarette brands

$British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$He said that with rising prices and a decline in consumer disposable income, more and more consumers in the United States are turning to lower-priced cigarette brands. As inflation in the United States and parts of Europe is at its highest level in decades, the business volume of consumer goods companies is extremely vulnerable to customers reducing their budgets in order to save cash flow. the consumption level of the tobacco market is gradually shifting from high-priced, high-quality products to products with lower profit margins.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Hot Chinese stocks rose collectively before the session.

• Bilibili Inc. rose more than 10% before trading, and the animation of "three-body" will be broadcast on Saturday.

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$It rose more than 10% to $23.97 before trading. The animation of "three-body" will be broadcast at 11: 00 this Saturday, with two episodes in succession on the first day. The "three-body" animation is produced by Art painting Kaitian as a co-producer. Art painting Kaitian Culture Communication Co., Ltd. is about 29% owned by Tencent's subsidiaries and about 30% by Bilibili Inc. affiliated companies.

• KE Holdings Inc. rose nearly 4% before trading, and the agency expects its annual performance to return to positive.

$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$It rose 3.88% to $16.62 before trading. The first Shanghai Research report pointed out that since 2022Q4, the state has improved the financing environment of real estate enterprises from credit, bonds, equity and other aspects, superimposed continuous demand-side stimulus, and the real estate industry is recovering. KE Holdings Inc. Q3 performance fully reflects the company in the real estate market downturn and epidemic prevention and control measures still have a strong operation and profitability. The bank believes that with the recovery of the real estate industry and the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, the company's performance is expected to return to positive in 2022.

• Trip.com released "Plan A for Tourism Revitalization in 2023"

$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$The "2023 Tourism Revitalization Plan A" was officially launched, announcing that it would launch a "triple strategy" to help industries and destinations "reunite" with travelers: "reconstruct the industrial ecology" by building 10 cultural and tourism industry incubators; "reshape brand value" through thousands of local guides to create a thousand destinations "reunion" experience; through hundreds of billions of traffic four seasons marketing to promote trillions of tourism consumption, "restore consumer confidence". As of press time, Trip.com rose by more than% before the market opened.

• The net revenue of Hello Group Q3 exceeded 3.233 billion yuan and the net profit was 535.8 million yuan.

$Hello Group (MOMO.US)$Pre-market growth of more than 14%, the results show that in the third quarter of 2022, Hello Group's net revenue reached 3.233 billion yuan ($454.5 million), exceeding Wall Street expectations of 3.1341 billion yuan, not measured in accordance with US general accounting standards. Hello Group's net profit was 535.8 million yuan ($75.3 million), making a profit for 31 consecutive quarters.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

21:30 initial jobless claims in the United States in the week ended December 3 (10,000)

23:30 US announces EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending December 2nd

02:00, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech

The Biden administration has yet to hold an online meeting with U.S. oil industry executives to discuss how to support Ukraine's energy infrastructure.