share_log

恒生科技指数一个多月飙涨50%,2023年将呈现“N”型走势?

The Hang Seng Technology Index has soared 50% in over a month. Will 2023 show an “N” trend?

Wind ·  Dec 8, 2022 17:27

Source: Wind

Hong Kong stocks rose strongly throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.38 per cent to 19450.23, the Hang Seng Technology Index up 6.64 per cent to 4270.21 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 3.63 per cent to 6666.77. Turnover in the market was HK $160.694 billion, with a net sale of HK $424 million for southbound funds. Internet medical stocks broke out again, with Alibaba Health Information Technology leading blue-chip gains by more than 16%, and JD Health and Ping An Healthcare And Technology by more than 10%. Technology, medicine, big consumption and gambling stocks were among the top gainers, with Bilibili Inc. up more than 20%, Kuaishou Technology up more than 11%, and Sands China up 10%.

The bottom of the Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded by more than 50%.

Since October 25, the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen 52%. Judging from the comparison of global markets, it is absolutely alone in seeking defeat. Led by large technology companies, the Hang Seng Index also rose 28.12%. During this period, the continuous landing of various domestic economic support policies has given an important boost to the market.

Whether the science and technology company will come to the top.

Judging from the heavyweights of the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index, Kuaishou Technology, BABA, Meituan, XIAOMI Group, JD.com Group, Tencent, JD Health, NetEase, Inc, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and Sunny Optical Technology are among the top 10. The oversold rebound of large technology companies is also an important driving force behind the surge in the index.

Kuaishou Technology, the heaviest company, for example, has nearly doubled since October 25, closing at HK $68.70 on December 8, but is still at the bottom from its all-time high in 2021.

Buyback helps to support the stock price

Not only the overfall rebounded, the heavy repurchase of listed companies also played a strong support to the stock price.

On the evening of December 7, Tencent announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the company would buy back 1.13 million shares with a repurchase amount of HK $351 million through a centralized bidding transaction on December 7, 2022, with a minimum transaction price of HK $299.8 and a maximum transaction price of HK $315.6. According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, Tencent's cumulative repurchase volume has exceeded 28 billion Hong Kong dollars, far exceeding the buyback level in previous years.

Judging from the buyback situation of Tencent in recent months, excluding the earnings period, he has been buying back a lot of money almost every day. In addition to Tencent, XIAOMI Group, JD Health and other companies have also bought back a large number of people in recent months.

big

Institutions are still bullish on Hong Kong stocks in 2023

Although Hong Kong stocks have rebounded sharply since the end of October, some institutions are still optimistic about the market performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2023.

Prospects for Hong Kong stocks of Guohai Securities in 2023: hopeful N or M type

Guohai Securities said that Hong Kong stocks may show an "N" or "M" trend for the whole year, which may not only have a considerable increase, but also note that the index may rebound by 32%, 26% and 21% respectively in 2023. Based on the assumption that the valuation repair is 9%, 13%, and the profit repair is 11%, the rise in Hong Kong stocks in 2023 may be driven by both valuation and earnings.

As for December 2022, because the mainland has successively introduced epidemic prevention optimization policies and real estate support policies in November 2022, Hong Kong stocks are at a low level after the sharp fall and the Fed has raised interest rates or will continue to rise periodically. Before entering 2023, December 2022 is still a cherished layout period. There are not only major meetings such as the Central Economic work Conference on the mainland, but also the landing of interest rate decisions of the central banks of Europe and the United States. At that time, investors will outline the tone of China's economic policy in 2023 on the basis of marginal relief of worries about raising interest rates overseas, and enter the 2023 year that is worth looking forward to.

The core logic of the rise in Hong Kong stocks in 2023 is that at the end of the Fed's interest rate hike (most likely to end in Q1), financial markets will continue to trade expectations of economic improvement brought about by the optimization of domestic anti-epidemic measures (the logical source of demand-side improvement), except for the Internet, which is highly related to the economy, some cyclical industries and industries that can benefit from beta. The consumption represented by the travel chain and the biomedical industry related to epidemic prevention deserve special attention.

According to the historical experience of the impact of seasons on the epidemic, winter and spring are the periods of high incidence of the epidemic, and steady growth is likely to be carried out at the same time as epidemic prevention. Steady growth means that the logic of consumption improvement represented by the travel chain is the strongest, while the virus has not been completely eliminated means that the performance logic of the biomedical industry has been further strengthened.

It is still possible to cut reserve requirements and interest rates in 2023, but its pace and extent are not very clear; the cooperation between monetary policy and fiscal policy may be further strengthened.

First, China's monetary policy is "dominated by us", and interest rate cuts are conducive to economic recovery, but interest rate cuts cannot completely improve the problem on the demand side, and the effect of broad credit and broad monetary means cannot be equated; second, policies should take into account internal and external balances. if the rate cut is too large, it is not conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate; third, the global high inflation background overlays the continuous recovery of China's economy, and China's inflation level is also likely to rise moderately. Fourth, if China's economy rebounds rapidly in the second half of next year, although the Federal Reserve may have finished raising interest rates and the high inflation in the United States has been alleviated to a certain extent, these external factors will no longer restrict China's interest rate cuts, but the necessity for China to cut interest rates may also decline at that time. In terms of fiscal policy, the United States will not relax excessively. Apart from the background that the debt level is already high, the United States also needs to cooperate with monetary policy to reduce inflation, and some Democratic policies will be restricted by Republicans after the mid-term elections.

Open source securities Hong Kong stock industry investment strategy: fundamentals bottomed out and rebounded, is the spring of Hong Kong stocks

The current valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is on the low side, with the Hang Seng Index FORWARD-12mPE being 8.2 times, much lower than the historical average of 12.4X, significantly lower than the 15 times PE of the Shenzhen Composite Index and 16.4 times PE of the S & P 500, which already has medium-and long-term allocation value. Looking ahead to 2023, the growth potential of China's economy is expected to highlight its comparative advantage over overseas, driving up the performance valuations of Hong Kong stocks.

(1) Molecular side: China's economy is at a low point in 2022, and the economy is expected to pick up in 2023. China's GDP growth rate is expected to be higher than that of European and American economies in 2023. According to IMF forecasts, China's GDP growth rate in 2023 is 4.4% higher than that of the United States and the euro zone. European and American economies face the risk of recession in 2023: according to IMF forecasts, the real GDP growth rate of the US economy from 2022 to 2024 is 1.6%, 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. The real GDP growth rate of European economies in 2022-2024 is 3.1%, 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

(2) risk-free interest rate: Hong Kong stocks track the yield of 10-year US Treasuries as a whole. Under the premise that prices have fallen, the pace of Fed interest rate increases may gradually slow down in the later stage, which is conducive to the performance of Hong Kong stocks.

(3) liquidity risk premium: when the advantage prospect of China's economic growth potential is realized, Hong Kong stocks, as the main channel for foreign investors to buy Chinese assets, are expected to attract capital back again.

(4) Capital structure adjustment: the Hong Kong stock market is still dominated by foreign investors. based on the differences in domestic and foreign confidence in the future of China's economy, it is expected to accelerate the adjustment of Hong Kong stock capital structure and expand the weight of domestic capital. The relationship between China and the United States has become a core variable, and the potential impact of the progress of China's negotiations on the delisting of US-listed stocks on the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks still needs continuous attention.

Edit / Viola

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment