On Wednesday, according to data released by the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 8 basis points to 6.41% in the week ended December 2, the lowest level since mid-September.

This is the fourth week in a row that US mortgage rates have fallen, the longest since 2019. In the past four weeks, 30-year fixed interest rates have fallen by about 73 basis points.

The rise and fall of mortgage rates is usually in line with the trend of benchmark 10-year Treasury yields. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are largely influenced by Fed interest rate expectations. Recently, as the Fed hinted that it would soon slow the pace of raising interest rates, the rate increase at the FOMC meeting in December is expected to be reduced to 50 basis points from the previous 75 basis points, pushing 10-year Treasury yields down significantly from their highs of the year.

Although mortgage rates fell again, MBA's overall mortgage applications fell last week. Of this total, the purchasing index fell 3 per cent for the first time in five weeks, while refinancing activity increased but remained at a 20-year low.

Us mortgage rates have soared this year as the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to help reduce inflation. At the beginning of this year, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage was only about 3%. By October, it had soared to 7%.

The real estate market is one of the most sensitive areas of the economy to changes in interest rates. With the sharp rise in interest rates, the US real estate market has been hit hard, mortgage purchases and refinancing activities have also shrunk rapidly, and other data in the real estate market, such as home sales, house prices, builders' confidence, construction permits and so on, are also mostly very depressed.

However, although mortgage interest rates have picked up, the cold winter of the real estate market may not be over. Some analysts pointed out that although the Fed has slowed down raising interest rates, the tone in the coming months is still to raise interest rates, and some even predict that the ultimate point of mortgage rates this round may reach 8%. However, some market participants said that the Fed's subsequent rate hike has been taken into account, interest rates should stabilize.

Since 1990, MBA has conducted a weekly survey of mortgage loans, including mortgage lenders, commercial banks and savings institutions, covering more than 75 per cent of retail residential mortgage applications in the US.