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观点 | 港股当前处于牛市“徘徊期”!行情开启的信号有哪些?有何行业配置策略?

Opinion | Hong Kong stocks are currently in a “hovering period” of a bull market! What are the signs that the market is opening? What is the industry allocation strategy?

廣發證券 ·  Dec 8, 2022 09:25

This paper synthesizes fromGF Securities Co., LTD., by Dai Kang and Li Xuewei

Introduction: GF Securities Co., LTD. released on November 18th"Hong Kong stocks" three stages of bull market ""This paper puts forward the theory of "three stages of bull market" in Hong Kong stocks. At that time, it was believed that the first stage of the bull market had entered the recuperation period, and the revaluation was expected to be the second stage of the relay. In this report, GF Securities Co., LTD. continued the judgment on the strategic opportunity period of Hong Kong stocks pointed out in the previous three reports, and began to answer: what are the signals for the opening of the current round of Hong Kong stocks'"two-stage" market? At present, Hong Kong stocks are in a "lingering period" of the bull market at the turn of one and two stages, how to grasp the main line of industry allocation?

The specific analysis is as follows.

GF Securities Co., LTD. judged that the "bull market stage" of Hong Kong stocks driven by the decline in sovereign risk premium is basically in place.

After the rebound since November, sentiment in Hong Kong stocks has improved significantly, with the ratio of short selling to trading and the CDS of Chinese sovereign bonds falling back to normal levels. Prior to the "Hong Kong stocks" at dawn, the "three arrows" recommended by "steady growth policy" + epidemic prevention and control policy optimization + overseas liquidity relaxation, since November, Hong Kong stocks in information technology, non-essential consumption, health care, real estate and other sectors led the rise in line with expectations.

GF Securities Co., LTD. judged that the bull market is currently in a "lingering period" at the turn of the first and second stages of the bull market.

GF Securities Co., LTD. previously proposed that the second phase of the Hong Kong stock bull market (value revaluation), which is expected to be carried out in the future, is reflected in the landing based on the optimization of real estate regulation / epidemic prevention and control, the enhancement of policy certainty in key sectors, and the confirmation of market expectations for fundamental repair, driving valuations back up.Recently, the rhythm of the optimization of epidemic prevention policy is far more positive than the market expected, and the low economic and credit environment is expected to pick up.

The epidemic situation is the blocking point of economic policy since the beginning of this year, and the further optimization of epidemic prevention policy is extensive in terms of the expected improvement of consumption repair, production, employment and market subjects. Looking back in history, the trigger of the two-stage "revaluation" of Hong Kong stocks is often the low improvement of credit environment indicators represented by social finance.This path is relatively optimistic, the Hong Kong stock bull market will soon enter a two-stage market, the current one-stage two-stage bull market at the turn of the "lingering period".

We are determined to stabilize growth in the future and are optimistic about its strength. Historically, a rebound in credit lows tends to correspond to policy increases, including a combination of monetary / fiscal and investment / consumption stimulus.

If there is a correction in the bull market, it is a good opportunity to increase positions.

Optimization of epidemic prevention policy-> the process of economic recovery may have ups and downs in rhythm, and if there is a correction in the bull market of Hong Kong stocks, it will be a good opportunity to increase positions.

First: if the credit environment is low, it is natural for earnings expectations to improve. Reviewing the two-stage market in the past 10 years, after a period of time after the low level of social finance stabilized and rebounded, the macro vitality was transmitted to the micro, and the profit forecast of Hong Kong stocks was significantly revised up.

Second:The difference between the two stages of this round is that after the regulatory environment tends to be stable, the endogenous profitability of companies represented by the Internet is restored.

Investment advice:Hong Kong stocks bull market "lingering period", GF Securities Co., LTD. suggested to continue to focus on the "three arrows", the allocation of "performance increase" + "high dividend strategy".

GF Securities Co., LTD. previously recommended development to promote security.Grasp the "three arrows" of Hong Kong stock investment: increase the policy of "steady growth" (moderate credit sinking of real estate leaders, completion chain of real estate sales) + optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies (optional consumption, service industry, health care) + overseas liquidity mitigation (platform economy).After a large increase in the short term, we can adopt the configuration strategy of both offensive and defensive.

1. Performance increase

Industries that have raised their earnings forecasts for Hong Kong stocks have seen more excess earnings at the turn of stages 1-2.Concerns: information technology (takeout, e-commerce), health care (medical services, specific drugs), optional consumption (gold jewelry / clothing / duty-free, beer / supermarket).

2. High dividend

Taking history as a mirror, the high dividend strategy, on the one hand, its offensive and defensive attribute is suitable for the 1-2 stage transition period-either excess returns or steady absolute returns. On the other hand, if the steady growth policy combination serves as the driving force of the market, the high dividend style also resonates with the traditional value style. Attention: first echelonEnergy, telecommunications; second echelonFinance, real estate.

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