Zhitong Financial APP learned that Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report saying that the recovery of consumption in the post-epidemic era has a bright future and is optimistic about the return of the value of the e-commerce sector. The fundamentals have entered the recovery channel, the disturbance of the superimposed supply chain has gradually weakened, and the recovery of terminal consumption is clear. On the policy side, the attitude of domestic regulation to support and encourage the long-term standardized and healthy development of the platform economy is clear. In terms of performance, Internet e-commerce companies exceeded expectations in the third quarter, the core main business growth was resilient, new business accelerated loss reduction, and the performance of all platforms exceeded market expectations. It is optimistic that terminal consumption will accelerate recovery growth after the epidemic, and industries such as e-commerce, takeout and local life will be repaired quickly.
Investment advice:Each head platform continues to tamp the core main business barriers, accelerate cost reduction and efficiency, and the company's value is expected to further pick up. Recommended:$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$、$JD.com, Inc.-SW (09618.HK)$、$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$、$Pinduoduo (PDD.US)$。
The main points of Shen Wan Hongyuan are as follows:
Epidemic prevention policy ushered in substantial optimization, optimistic about the recovery of terminal consumption.
Affected by the epidemic in October, each segment of the consumer track is under short-term pressure. In October, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 1.2132 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3% over the same period last year. The growth rate continued to be better than that of Social Zero, and online channels pulled social zero obviously. On November 11, the "20 articles" announced that epidemic prevention policies have been further adjusted and optimized, new regulations have been gradually implemented in major first-tier cities, epidemic prevention and control has been improved in a more scientific and accurate direction, and demand has been suppressed by the epidemic. Under the protection of the overlay policy, the logistics network is smooth, the implementation efficiency of the supply chain of the e-commerce platform is improved, the impact of the epidemic on compliance is expected to be gradually eliminated, and it is optimistic that terminal consumption will recover steadily, and the marginal improvement of optional consumer goods will be improved. the penetration rate of travel and local life is expected to further increase.
With the diversified development of live e-commerce, real-time retail is beginning to show its edge, and e-commerce has gone out to sea to create a new growth curve.
Comprehensive e-commerce capacity construction, strengthen the concept of content recommendation to cultivate a new growth pole of traffic. Anchors and institutions break down barriers and start the construction of multi-platform and multi-matrix diversification. Among them, Luo Yonghao is stationed in Taobao Live to expand the traffic capacity, and the Oriental selects multi-matrix account operators to gradually establish their minds in subdivision categories. Real-time retail has entered a critical period of development, policy + consumer demand + online and offline retailers work together, active layout, real-time retail performance to achieve rapid growth during the Singles' Day, and gradually become an important incremental field of the retail industry. In terms of e-commerce going out to sea, the risk of global recession increases, and persistent inflation weakens the purchasing power of overseas consumers and stimulates cost-effective demand. It is the right time for Chinese e-commerce to go to sea, relying on the domestic high-quality supply chain and undertaking overseas platforms to leave Chinese merchants. Pinduoduo launched Temu, downloads continue to occupy the top of the list, the first month GMV exceeded 1.5 million US dollars, is expected to become Pinduoduo's new growth curve.
E-commerce has continued high-quality growth, the platform has achieved remarkable results in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and its profits in the third quarter have greatly exceeded market expectations.
The epidemic situation was under control in the third quarter of 2022, the disturbed supply chain gradually recovered in the second quarter, and online consumption maintained the trend of recovery. The revenue of the head platform improved from the previous month. 22Q3 BABA / JD.com / Pinduoduo / Meituan achieved revenue of RMB 2072 / 62.9 billion, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 3%, 11%, 65%, 28%, respectively. In terms of profitability, various e-commerce platforms actively reduce costs and increase efficiency according to different business lines, the profit performance of core business is excellent, and the scale of new business losses is shrinking at an accelerated pace. BABA / JD.com / Pinduoduo / Meituan realized net profit of 338 shock 100amp 124 / 3.5 billion yuan respectively, compared with the same period last year + 19% shock 100% shock 295% / turn loss into profit. On the user side, the platform continues the trend of high-quality growth, by optimizing the user experience, consolidating the size and stickiness of high-quality consumer groups to achieve high-quality growth.
Risk Tips:Market competition intensifies, new business development falls short of expectations, and regulatory cooperation between China and the United States is uncertain.