Source: research on Investment Promotion Strategy
Author: Zhang Xia Tu Fengqing
The political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2023, listen to the work report of the Central Commission for discipline Inspection and the State Supervisory Commission, and study and deploy the work of building a clean and honest party style and anti-corruption work in 2023. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.
The meeting pointed out that next year, we should persist in making progress in the midst of stability, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, optimize epidemic prevention and control measures, and form a joint force to promote high-quality development. Pro-active fiscal policy should be more effective, prudent monetary policy should be accurate and effective, industrial policy should be developed and safe at the same time, science and technology policy should focus on self-reliance and self-improvement, and social policy should hold the bottom line of people's livelihood. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment. It is necessary to speed up the construction of a modern industrial system and improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain supply chain. It is necessary to earnestly implement the "two unwavering" and enhance the driving force and vitality of China's socialist modernization drive. It is necessary to promote a high level of opening up to the outside world and make greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign capital. It is necessary to effectively prevent and defuse major economic and financial risks and keep the bottom line that systemic risks do not occur.
The study of investment promotion strategy reviews the market performance before and after the holding of the central economic work conference in the past ten years, and finds that the convening of the central economic work conference, in addition to boosting market sentiment in the short term, often leads to the phased dominance of the market value style. The following is a specific analysis.
In the central economic work conferences over the years, the focus of attention is often the setting of the current economic situation and the marginal changes in the deployment of economic work in the future. From the historical statistics of the past 10 years, the convening of the Central Economic work Conference can boost market sentiment in the short term. After the Central Economic work Conference was held in the past decade, the winning rate of the major market indexes in the last 30 trading days was higher than the excess return of Wande full A, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 winning rate of 80%.
After the Central Economic work Conference was held in the past decade, the probability of market style drifting to the market value is higher, especially when the economic environment is facing greater downward pressure.
The reason is that under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, there is a strong willingness for policy to stabilize growth, and the central economic work conference often makes further arrangements for "stable growth", thus guiding the expectation of social integration improvement and driving up the value style of the market. Of course, sometimes the market reflects this expectation in advance of the meeting, for example, after the third quarter of 12, 14, 17 and 20 years, there has been a market value-led pattern.
Historically, the setting of industrial policy by the Central Economic work Conference can also provide guidance on the performance of the market industry in the coming year.
Take 2012 as an example, the report of the 18th CPC National Congress at the end of 2012 put scientific and technological innovation at the core of the overall national development, established the development line of scientific and technological self-reliance, and the ideological trend of the supremacy of science and technology in the market prevailed. The core of the Central Economic work Conference at the end of 2012 emphasized "innovation", including "accelerating scientific and technological innovation and strengthening product, brand, industrial organization and business model innovation".
Under the guidance of "innovation", gem in 2013 refers to the stunning performance of the main board throughout the year, and the most outstanding industry is the TMT Internet industry. same,Among the top five industries that have performed well in other years, the leading signal can be found in the core setting of industrial policy by the Central Economic work Conference.
Looking forward to this Central Economic work Conference, we believe that under the background of increasing downward pressure on the economy, steady growth is still the core issue.
After the outbreak in various parts of the country, production and construction were disturbed to a certain extent, and the turnover of construction steel once again hit the lowest level in the past eight years. Real estate sales continue to be weak, with 30 large and medium-sized cities with a negative growth of-17%. At present, the real global demand is on a downward trend, with exports growing negatively in dollar terms in October compared with the same period last year. With the further decline of the global economy, China will face tremendous export pressure in the future.
It is expected that the Central Economic work Conference in December will have more clear measures to stabilize growth in the areas of stable real estate, traditional infrastructure, medical infrastructure and new digital infrastructure, so that the market can further enhance the expectation of the impact of China's economy coming out of the epidemic next year.
Edit / phoebe