At present, we are mainly engaged in the production of single crystal silicon wafers and gradually improve the manufacturing process. The company is mainly engaged in monocrystalline silicon wafer manufacturing. In 2021, the company achieved business income of 10.91 billion yuan, of which monocrystalline silicon was 10.75 billion yuan, accounting for 98.4%. By the end of 2021, the company's crystal production capacity reached 30GW, ranking fourth in the industry. Annual silicon wafer sales are expected to reach 30.9/36.0/48.9GW in 2022-23-24. Since the beginning of 2022, the company has rapidly improved the layout of silicon chip slicing, and the ratio of slicing capacity has increased quarter by quarter, reaching 70% by the end of September 2022, and is expected to reach 100% in 2023.
Relying on the advantage of equipment manufacturing, silicon wafer shipments and single watt profits have increased significantly. The company started from the R & D and manufacture of photovoltaic wafer equipment, and transformed the production of photovoltaic wafer in 2019. Relying on its own profound accumulation in the field of silicon wafer equipment, and the increase in the self-supply rate of slicing capacity, the company's profit per unit of wafer products has increased significantly since 2022, and the net profit per watt of 22Q3 has reached 0.13-0.14yuan / W, which is close to the level of leading enterprises, and it is expected that 22Q4 can still be maintained at more than 0.1yuan / W.
Actively expand the photovoltaic manufacturing integration, N-type capacity layout. Taking the wafer as the starting point, the company expands the silicon material link upstream, building 150000 tons of industrial silicon + 100000 tons of polysilicon in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and expanding the battery link downstream to build the N-type battery production capacity of 24GW in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province. Silicon material and battery capacity will be put into production in the first half of 2023. The company is expected to have 5 tons and 10 tons of silicon capacity and 14GW and 24GW battery capacity by the end of 23 and 24, respectively. The integrated and N-shaped production capacity layout is expected to enhance the company's product competitiveness and profitability.
The equipment plate develops steadily, and the self-produced silicon wafer equipment improves the competitiveness of the manufacturing plate. Equipment manufacturing is the company's traditional business, and mainly photovoltaic wafer slicing equipment. In the past two years, with the company increasing the layout of the silicon wafer manufacturing plate, the photovoltaic special equipment produced by the company has gradually shifted from export to self-use, which not only ensures the rapid landing of the company's own production capacity, but also brings certain advantages in terms of equipment depreciation cost.
Profit forecast and valuation: we expect the company's homing net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be 36.5max 55.4 / 6.69 billion, an increase of 113.2%, 51.8% and 20.8%, corresponding to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 and 8.67.1 times on December 5. Combined with the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method, we believe that the stock value of the company is between 122.2 and 133.8 yuan, with a 16% premium over the company's stock price on December 5, corresponding to the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0-10.0 times in 2023. For the first time, the overweight rating was given.
Risk hints: the risk of increased competition in the photovoltaic wafer industry; the risk that the company's new capacity production schedule is not as expected; and the risk that the company's new business and new technology progress is not as expected.
