Global macro

• The futures of the three major stock indexes of US stocks were mixed before the day of trading.

• The low of MSCI China Index rebounded by more than 1/3, Goldman Sachs Group: the current price does not reflect half of the benefits of China's reopening.

The Dominic Wilson team, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, expects China's economic reopening to accelerate GDP growth to 6.5 per cent over the next 12 months, a significant improvement from just 3.5 per cent in the past few quarters, boosting asset classes that are closely related to the Chinese economy. The bank also said that at present, the market only reflects 40% of the positive results of China's economic reopening, and believes that Chinese and emerging market stock markets, as well as copper markets and North Asian currencies, can continue to benefit from the news of China's reopening.

According to the team's latest scenario analysis, if China reopens, the Hang Seng country Index could rise 22% from its December 1 level to 7768 points, making it the asset class that benefits most from China's opening up. With today's closing price of the national index, Goldman Sachs Group is optimistic that there is still a potential increase of nearly 17%.

• Us recession is expected to heat up, three major Wall Street investment banks sing short US stocks in unison

The three major Wall Street investment banks have issued pessimistic forecasts for the US stock market in 2023, believing that the US stock market will fall by more than 20% next year. Among them, Morgan Stanley expects the s & p 500 to fall 24% in the first four months of 2023 to around 3000 to 3300. Bank of America Corporation predicts that US GDP may show negative growth of 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, with the S & P 500 falling as low as 3000. Deutsche Bank estimates that US stocks will hit bottom in mid-2023, and the S & P 500 will first rebound to around 4500 in the first half of next year, then plunge 25 per cent in the third quarter, because the Fed's tightening policies will lead the US economy into a full-blown recession.

• Will the Fed stick to the "raise interest rates and wait and see" strategy? Traders don't agree.

Recent revelations from Fed policymakers show that almost all of them have pledged to slow the pace of rate hikes at next week's December FOMC meeting and to try to raise policy rates high enough to hold down inflation but not so high as to cause the economy to collapse in the coming months.

However, traders do not seem to be convinced. Since the Fed accelerated policy tightening this summer, traders have more or less insisted that the path of interest rates in the coming year will be humped. If the recession does come, the market expects the Fed's response will most likely be to cut interest rates.

• Standard Chartered Bank's "surprise Forecast" in 2023: the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 200bp, oil prices fall to $40

Eric Eric Robertsen, head of global research at Standard Chartered Bank, recently released his annual surprise report on financial markets, predicting that it is "unlikely" to happen in the coming year, but once it happens, he predicts eight major events that will subvert the market, including: 1: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 200bp; 2: oil prices fell to $40; 3: Bitcoin fell to $5000; 4. EURUSD rose to 1.25. 5. The Nasdaq plunged 50%, RMB rose to 6.4% against the dollar, food prices plummeted 15%, and Biden was impeached.

• Us service sector activity accelerated faster than expected in November, while US factory orders grew faster than expected in October

Us service sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in November as production accelerated and demand continued to grow strongly. The Institute of supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its service sector activity index rose to 56.5 in November from 54.4 in October, rebounding to September levels and exceeding economists' forecasts of 53.7.

Us manufacturing orders rose for the third month in a row in October, reflecting resilience in demand for goods but also rising prices, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Monday. Factory orders rose 1 per cent in October from a month earlier, after rising 0.3 per cent in September.

• EU countries argue over the ceiling of natural gas prices, and a week later they reach a consensus that is doubtful.

EU countries remain deeply divided over how to design European gas price caps, with only a week to go before ministers meet to try to reach an agreement. According to media reports, according to an internal document, the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency, has proposed a second broader compromise on the price ceiling-lowering the price intervention threshold to 220 euros ($230.61) from the 275 euros recommended by the European Commission last month. Most member states had previously strongly criticized the standard proposed by the EU administration. In addition, two groups of countries have proposed their own solutions.

Hot news

• Star technology stocks were up and down before the market.

• Musk's brain-computer interface company faces federal investigation on suspicion of animal cruelty

According to foreign media citing some documents and sources, Elon Musk's "brain-computer interface" medical equipment company Neuralink is under federal investigation because it may have violated the Animal Welfare Act during animal experiments.

Employees inside Neuralink allegedly complained that the company's animal trials were in such a hurry, causing unnecessary suffering and death, and raising questions within the company about the quality of the test results. It may even delay the company's plans to start human trials in the future.

• GitLab rose nearly 17% before trading, and Q3 realized revenue of $113 million, exceeding expectations.

$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$It rose 16.62% to $44.7 in pre-market trading. GitLab Q3 realized revenue of $113 million, with a previous value of $66.8 million and an expected value of $106 million; earnings per share were-0.10 and-0.34, exceeding market expectations by 33.33%.

• Intel Corp executive: the company will regain its leading position in the chip manufacturing industry.

Monday local time$Intel (INTC.US)$Ann Kelleher, vice president and head of technology development, said Intel Corp was achieving all the goals set for the company to regain its leading position in semiconductor manufacturing. "We are completely on track, and we have milestones every quarter that show that we are in the lead or on the right track," he said. "

In addition, Kelleher noted that the company is ready to start producing 4nm chips and will produce 3nm chips in the second half of 2023.

• It is reported that the price of NVIDIA Corp RTX 4080 graphics card will be reduced, and the price is expected to be close to AMD RX 7900XTX

There is news that$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Preparations are under way for a price reduction for RTX4080 graphics cards, which is expected to be announced in mid-December, and the final price may be close to AMD's upcoming RX7900XTX. The official price of AMD RX7900XTX is 7999 yuan, while the price of RTX4080 is 9499 yuan.

• The game post station has begun to lay off staff, and the blockchain wallet team has been seriously affected.

According to people familiar with the matter and those who claimed to be affected, they posted on LinkedIn that$GameStop (GME.US)$Layoffs have begun, and the company was the leader of the 2021 boom in meme shares. Some media quoted sources inside the company as saying that this round of layoffs seriously affected the construction team of the company's blockchain wallet.It is understood that at least six software engineers of the game station claimed on LinkedIn that the game station had not responded to multiple requests for comment from the media.The exact scale of layoffs has not been reported。

• The stock price is close to a record increase, and the salary of Exxon Mobil Corp's senior executives has increased by 10%.

$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Darren Woods, the chief executive, will receive an annual salary of $1.88 million, up from $1.7 million, while senior vice presidents Neil Chapman and Jack Williams will receive similar increases of about $1.2 million, the regulatory filing said. Exxon Mobil Corp's share price has risen 78 per cent this year, the biggest increase since at least 1990, according to the data. Annual salary usually accounts for less than 10 per cent of Exxon Mobil Corp's total executive compensation. According to company filings, Woods's compensation totaled $23.6 million in 2021.

• COVID-19 's patent war for vaccine escalated, Pfizer Inc and BioNTech launched a counterattack against Modena.

$Pfizer (PFE.US)$The company and its German partners$BioNTech (BNTX.US)$Fought back in the patent lawsuit for COVID-19 vaccine on Monday.$Moderna (MRNA.US)$The company, which asked to dismiss the lawsuit in federal court in Boston, pointed out that Moderna Inc's patent was invalid and not infringed. Moderna Inc first sued Pfizer Inc in August, accusing the company of infringing on three innovation-related patents it first developed before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Popular US-listed stocks rose collectively before trading.

• It is reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's Arizona fab is facing construction and operation challenges.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US)$It fell slightly before the day. It is reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's new wafer plant in Arizona is scheduled to start production in December 2023. But the company said it had encountered problems such as high costs, a lack of talent and unexpected construction obstacles. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd said in a letter to the US Department of Commerce last month that the plant faces a series of construction costs and project uncertainties, compared with the much lower capital intensity of building an advanced logic chip factory of the same level in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd says the real obstacle to building a production line in the United States is the comparative cost of building and operating.

• Bilibili Inc. rose more than 2% before trading, and UBS reiterated its buy rating target price of $32.
  

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$It continued to rise more than 2% to US $20.1 before trading. UBS reported that Bilibili Inc. reiterated that he would break even by 2024 and stressed the goal of achieving a gross profit margin of 30 per cent by 2024. At the same time, management expects operating expenses under non-GAAP to peak in the fourth quarter of this year and gradually decline next year. UBS maintains a "buy" rating on Bilibili Inc., with a target price of $32 for US stocks.

• Lufax Holding rose nearly 4% before trading, and its withdrawal from retail business will focus on financial institutions.

$Lufax (LU.US)$It was up nearly 4% before the day. The company's Lufax Holding retail business in Hong Kong will be suspended indefinitely from January next year. This business adjustment is based on the overall business strategy of Lu Hong Kong, in order to better integrate resources and will focus on the business of financial institutions. Lufax Holding Ltd co-CEO Ji Kuisheng said earlier that in order to further support the main business development of small and micro enterprises, Lufax Holding Ltd recently tried to launch a new small and micro business owner service ecology.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

21:30 US trade account for October

23:00 US November New York Fed Global supply chain stress Index

At 01:00 the next day EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report.

API crude oil inventory for the week from 05:30 to December 2nd