On December 6, liquor companies collectively pulled up, Chongqing beer hit the daily limit, Tsing Tao Beer rose more than 6%, Yanjing Beer, Hainan Coconut Island and so on rose.

Liquor, Gujing tribute wine, Luzhou laojiao and so on rose sharply.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the tavern leader Helen rose more than 60 per cent last week, while Tsingtao Brewery, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited and China Resources Beer all rose about 20 per cent in the past week.

According to Southwest Securities analysis, policy relaxation is conducive to the recovery of beer consumption scene (night show, catering, etc.), current drinking sales account for about 50%, the current drinking channel as the main battlefield of high-end beer is expected to boost the high-end rhythm.

What is the current situation of the beer industry?

In fact, despite the impact of multiple external factors, such as epidemic suppression, high cost operation, weak consumer demand and so on, the overall performance of beer sales increased during the year.

Judging from the combination of online and offline from January to October, Yanjing achieved sales of 1.7 billion yuan from January to October, an increase of 25% over the same period last year, making it the beer company with the highest growth rate. In addition, Tsingtao Beer increased by 18% year-on-year, China Resources increased by 10% year-on-year, and achieved double-digit sales growth this year.

On the other hand, the current popular World Cup is also driving the industry, and historically, the holding of related events has usually given a small boost to beer consumption: on the data side, beer sales have mostly increased in the month during the recent World Cups, but only fell slightly during the 2018 World Cup due to the overall pressure adjustment of the beer industry.

Craft beer is expected to rise as a new force.

In addition to the sales of the industry itself, the new subdivision of fine brewing is more concerned by the organization. the data show that craft beer can produce a variety of flavors through the regulation of hops, yeast and other raw materials.

In terms of price, taking 500ML cans as an example, the current discount on e-commerce platform is nearly 20 yuan per can, which is significantly higher than the unit price of traditional beer.

Judging from the data, China's beer industry shows a high-end trend, and the craft beer market is developing rapidly. By 2021, the five-year compound annual growth rate of the market scale is 22.63%, accounting for 11.43% of the beer market. There is still room for improvement compared with the 26.8% of the American market.

In this regard, Caitong Securities believes that when beer consumption is being upgraded, craft brewing is expected to open hundreds of billions of markets, and the market size is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2026. Zheshang Securities also said that craft fresh beer is expected to become an important segment of the beer market in the future.

What does the beer industry think next year?

Huaxi Securities said that in the short term, corporate activities during the World Cup are expected to bring brand strength enhancement plus sales increment, and the World Cup is not only in winter, but also concentrated in the early hours of the morning, so the majority of spectators are expected to watch the game at home. and then better match the scene of home consumption of beer. The World Cup is expected to be an important opportunity for the development of non-current beer drinking channels.

The analysis points out that looking forward to next year, the logic of beer will continue to deduce, beer is expected to be a sector with high certainty, and it is expected that the valuation will rise in the peak season. Facing a correction in the off-season at this stage will be the most important time point in the layout of next year. Short-term expectation events catalyse, long-term profit margin improvement and valuation boost are worth looking forward to.

In terms of growth, according to the head Leopard Research Institute, the market size of China's beer industry will reach 417.86 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annualized growth rate of 3.9% in the next five years.

Liquor is also expected to welcome the peak season catalysis.

In addition, the liquor sector, which is also a subdivision of liquor, is also more prominent during the day, with alcoholic spirits, Yingjia tribute wine, Gujing tribute wine and so on all leading the rise, while from the point of time, the Spring Festival is the peak season of traditional liquor consumption.

Zheshang Securities said that under the optimization of epidemic control, the population turnover rate of the Spring Festival in 2023 will increase or promote the mass gift-giving / dinner consumption / banquet consumption band (100-400 yuan) to achieve high dynamic sales growth.

The analysis points out that at present, at the stage of the continuation of the liquor industry + steady growth + the coexistence of extreme differentiation and centralization of the industry, the industry will still take "volume reduction and price rise" as the main theme, and the compound annual growth rate of the liquor industry from 2020 to 2025 is expected to be about 7.23%. Sub-high-end liquor / high-end liquor is still the fastest growing sub-industry.