In November, under the triple expected improvement of the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy and the expected inflection point of external liquidity, the market bottomed out.

The performance of Hong Kong stocks is extremely eye-catching, forming a more optimistic market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index rose 26.62%, the China Enterprise Index rose 29.07%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 33.15%. In addition, domestic capital represented by southward capital continued to strengthen Hong Kong stocks, with a combined net inflow of more than HK $50 billion in November.

At the same time, foreign capital gradually dissipated, also ushered in a liquidity inflection point, northward capital net purchase of more than 55 billion yuan, for the weighted blue chip injection of incremental capital.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing PMI in November was 48, lower than the previous forecast of 49, a month-on-month decline of 1.2 percentage points, and the non-manufacturing PMI in November was 46.7, a month-on-month decline of 2 percentage points. Economic indicators continued the downward trend in October, which generally reflects that the current economic recovery process is still slow, facing problems such as insufficient aggregate demand, triple pressure and so on.

It's about to enter December.From the perspective of the capital market, the traditional "spring restlessness" and "New year's market" are expected to heat up gradually.

The logic behind it mainly lies in:

1) expectations of the economy and policies for the new year

2) the peak of bank lending at the beginning of the year and abundant liquidity

3) domestic and foreign funds will be arranged in advance.

According to the law of historical statistics, the probability of the occurrence of the New year market is relatively high. The probability of occurrence in the past 3 years, 5 years and 10 years is 100%, 60% and 60% respectively, with an average rise and fall of + 3.58%, + 1.36% and + 3.55%.

From the perspective of economic cycle, Yue Kai Securities mentioned in its investment strategy last year that this year can be compared with the year of steady growth in 2012.Take history as a mirror, the New year market is worth looking forward to, steady growth to the main line of growth in turn.

Yue Kai Securities believes that under the triple expected improvement of the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy, and the expected inflection point of external liquidity, the characteristics of the bottom of the market are gradually emerging, and the repair trend is determined. However, the rebound process still needs to be further verified by fundamental data.

In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on three main lines of logic:

First, under the optimization of epidemic prevention, the repair market of the damaged plate in the early stageSuch as biomedical, aviation, wine travel and other sectors

Second, the marginal relaxation of industry policy under the demand of stable growth.Industries such as the real estate industry chain and the Internet

Third, under the theme of security for a long timeEnergy security, self-control and Xinchuang, traditional Chinese medicine and other plates.

In terms of theme investment, it is suggested to pay attention to the reform of state-owned enterprises, La Nina phenomenon and so on.