美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。
增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大
三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。
可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。
纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。
整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。
能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。
受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。
相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。
此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。
从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。
值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀「三重压力」，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。
英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。
FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。
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需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强
需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。
标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。
与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。
分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。
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库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。
例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。
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反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。
但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。
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增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降
增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。
现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：
过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。
受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。
分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。
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标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。
对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。
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三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。
分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。
库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局
企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。
美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。
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资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。
三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。
从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关。
不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制。
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综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。
前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力
考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。
不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成，因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。
这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。
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现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。
当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。
但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机。
假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%。
Source: the finishing touch of Zhongjin
Authors: Li Hemin, Liu Gang, Wang Hanfeng
The performance of US stocks slowed further in the third quarter of 2022, basically approaching zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the earnings prospects of US stocks under the increasing growth pressure and the impact on the follow-up trend of US stocks.
Growth trend: profits continue to slow, approaching zero growth; energy and transportation are the main contributions, while finance and technology are a big drag
U. S. stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.
In comparable terms, the EPS of the S & P 500 grew just 0.6 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter (4.9 per cent non-financial), down from 2.9 per cent in the second quarter (10.5 per cent non-financial).
EPS in the third quarter of the Nasdaq 100 was-1% year-on-year, up from-5.1% in the second quarter. The S & P 500 exceeded expectations to 1.9% from 2.9% in the second quarter (the pre-epidemic average was 5.4%), and the higher-than-expected share also fell to 70% from 76% in the second quarter (the pre-epidemic average of 71%).
Overall, a further slowdown in US stock earnings is also expected under high costs and low demand.
Energy and transportation are the main contributions; financial pressure, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and the Internet are also slowing.
Driven by a low base and a rebound in oil prices (oil prices averaged $98 per barrel vs in the third quarter. In the third quarter of last year, EPS in energy, consumer services and transportation grew by 152 per cent, 149 per cent and 68 per cent respectively compared with the same period last year, while cars and parts and real estate were also among the top growth rates (40 per cent and 39 per cent).
By contrast, financial pressure, third-quarter EPS year-on-year-19% (vs. Second quarter-26%). Loan losses of the big four banks (Bank of America Corporation, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co) rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, as a slowdown in loan demand combined with weakness in investment banking also weighed on profits.
In addition, the growth rate of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and clothing, semiconductors and media entertainment also declined significantly.
In terms of contribution, energy (4.1ppt), optional consumption (1.2ppt) and transportation (1.1ppt) are the main contributions, while communication services, diversified finance and insurance are obvious drag.
It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, the leader of US stocks, have fallen and turned negative for five consecutive quarters, mainly due to the "triple pressure" of weak demand, a strong dollar and high inflation, and management said to control costs by slowing recruitment and layoffs.
Intel Corp, NVIDIA Corp and META technology leaders all missed expectations in the third quarter, with net profit falling 89%, 72% and 52% respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, due to the high proportion of overseas income of technology leaders (53% vs on average FAAMNG. S & P 500 39%), the strong dollar also had a negative impact.
FAAMNG's non-financial share of net profit in the S & P 500 also fell from 27 per cent at the end of 2020 to 17.7 per cent in the third quarter. Many companies say they will slow down hiring or layoffs to control costs, and Intel Corp has proposed a $10 billion cost-cutting plan.
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Demand and cost analysis: high costs continue to squeeze profit margins, and industries with low inventory have stronger bargaining power when demand falls.
Revenue continues to fall as demand cools, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.
Revenue of the s & p 500 rose 9.3% year-on-year (non-financial 9.6%) in the third quarter, down from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. From a sub-sector point of view, compared with the second quarter, cars and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors fell significantly.
At the same time, high costs continued to squeeze net profit margins, with the s & p 500's third-quarter net profit margin of 11.3%, down from 11.7% in the second quarter, while non-financial net profit margins also fell to 11% in the third quarter from 11.3% in the second quarter. Excluding the energy sector, net profit margin fell back to 10.3 per cent in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter).
In terms of sub-sectors, the sectors of consumer services, household personal goods and public utilities have risen significantly, but software and services, raw materials, and media entertainment have dropped significantly.
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Industries with low inventories can still rely on price increases to ease the pressure on the profit side.
For example, semiconductors have insufficient bargaining power due to high inventory and weaker demand, sales have declined significantly, and interest rates have also continued to be under pressure (third-quarter gross margin 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, an average of 52.5% since 2013; net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter.
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In contrast, as inventories are still insufficient, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average of 4.1% since 2013).
But we expect weaker overall demand to erode its profitability as real recessionary pressures magnify next year.
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Quality of growth: slower bond issuance, lower cash flow and cash on hand; reduced buybacks; flat leverage but reduced solvency
In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of the S & P 500 fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by a decline in net profit margin), while non-financial non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter).
In the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, operating cash flow and cash on hand decreased, buybacks fell, and capital expenditure rose. From the perspective of leverage, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:
In the past 12 months, the non-financial non-energy operating cash flow of the S & P 500 continued to decline in the third quarter from a year earlier (3.8 per cent vs in the third quarter. 8.3% in the second quarter). Rising funding costs as a result of the Fed's continued tightening slowed corporate credit bond issuance further in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33 per cent from a year earlier).
As a result, the amount of non-financial non-energy cash on hand fell from $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8 per cent of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter).
From a sub-sector point of view, the proportion of cash in hand to total assets in optional consumption, communications services and information technology has dropped significantly.
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S & P buybacks fell to $196 billion in the third quarter from $225.7 billion in the second quarter, or 2.8 per cent of market capitalization from 3 per cent in the second quarter. However, energy sector buybacks are still strong (from 6.1 per cent of market capitalization in the second quarter to 6.4 per cent in the third quarter), while information technology fell from 3.8 per cent in the second quarter to 3 per cent in the third quarter.
In terms of contribution to EPS, buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurrent EPS growth in the third quarter, up significantly from 3.3% in the second quarter, while Nasdaq buybacks contributed slightly more to recurrent EPS growth (2.4% vs in the third quarter. 2.2% in the second quarter).
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In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt / net assets) of the S & P 500 remained basically unchanged at 77% of that in the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (60% in the second quarter). However, the non-financial overall interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/ (interest expense + capitalized interest) fell from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest reserve ratio for individual stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter).
In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, health care and real estate fell in the third quarter, but information technology rose.
Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active de-treasury cycle; investment increases but it is difficult to hide the slowing pattern
Enterprises have entered the stage of taking the initiative to go to the warehouse, and the inventory of finished goods has dropped.
The United States has entered the stage of voluntary destocking. Total non-financial inventories of the S & P 500 continued to rise in the third quarter, but inventories of raw materials, especially finished goods, have gradually fallen, and inventory growth has peaked and declined year-on-year (17.5 per cent vs in the third quarter. 21.3% in the second quarter). The profit reduction during the active destocking phase (12-month dynamic EPS) averaged 7%, with the financial crisis in 2008 and the epidemic in 2020 having an even greater impact.
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Capital expenditure is rising, but it may be hard to hide the overall slowdown.
Non-financial capital expenditure of the S & P 500 in the third quarter was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; excluding energy, capital expenditure was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale is also rising, such as energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, science and technology hardware, semiconductors and so on.
From a macro point of view, non-residential fixed asset investment in the United States actually grew by 3.2% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year (vs. (2.4% in the second quarter), the scale was also higher than in the second quarter, with intangible assets and facility investment falling year-on-year, but equipment investment (third quarter compared with 5.3%vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially the marked rise in information processing equipment and transportation equipment, which may be related to the promotion of the Biden government's adoption of the inflation reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act in August 2022, respectively.
However, given the increasing downward pressure on US growth, corporate willingness to spend capital is also likely to be further curbed.
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Scoring on demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we foundSemiconductorWeak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage,Media entertainmentWeak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity,Telecommunication service(weak demand, high inventory and leverage) more pressureRetail sales(weak demand, high inventory) andTransportation(demand is OK, but inventories, investment and leverage are higher, and capacity is lower.) it is also noteworthy.
Outlook: under the pressure of recession, US stock earnings may continue to decline, which is expected to be 2023-5%. If the market wants to rise, it may need to be suppressed first, and it will be under molecular pressure in the second quarter.
Considering that the current financing costs of all lines in the United States have exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield on investment-grade bonds exceeded the actual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in November by 342bp, the spread is currently upside down by 75bp, and the interest rate on high-yield bonds was once close to 10%, which is only lower than the 30-year mortgage rate of S & P 500 ROIC 265bpX once close to 7%).So a gradual recession may be a high probability event.According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread upside down, recessionary pressure is likely to come in the first or second quarter of next year.
However, by reviewing the experience of 18 recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by high leverage, tight monetary policy, or external shocks, so as long as the Fed can stop raising interest rates in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on return on investment will not be obvious.So as not to cause a very deep recession.(reviewing the historical experience, the average upside-down amplitude of 3m10s is 150bp).
In this context, U. S. stock earnings are likely to continue to fall, but the adjustment is not very large. At present, we expect earnings growth to slow to-5.5% in 2023, which is still lower than the 5.3% currently expected by the market.
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Valuations that are still not cheap add up to increased recessionary pressure in the first and second quarters of next year, which may dampen the desire for US stocks to rise first.
The current 12-month dynamic Ppace E of the S & P 500 is 17.7 times, higher than the historical average of 16.2 times since 1990. The current retrenchment and the elimination of upward risks in US bond interest rates provide support for interest rates and risk appetite for US stocks.
However, under the increased recessionary pressure in the second quarter of next year, the denominator may not be compensated immediately, and after market fluctuations may force loose expectations, the rapid fall in US bond interest rates may gradually bring more opportunities for the allocation of growing stocks.
Assuming the equity risk premium rises to 2.7% of the low at the end of September and the 10-year Treasury interest rate of ~ 3.8%, the S & P 500 is reasonably valued at ~ 15 times. Our reasonable valuation based on growth and liquidity measurements is also roughly the same (48 per cent of ISM manufacturing PMI corresponds to a reasonable valuation of 14.5-15 times the 10-year US Treasury interest rate of 3.8 per cent), with implied support 10-15 per cent lower than the current level. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~ 5% higher than the current level.
