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美股“年末红包”会出现吗?大摩:是时候再度抛售股票了

Will there be a “year-end bonus” for US stocks? Daimo: It's time to sell stocks again

Wind ·  Dec 6, 2022 08:23

Three major indexes of US stocks fell overnight as investors worried that strong economic data would prompt the Fed to reconsider maintaining hawkish monetary policy.

Specifically, the s & p fell 72.86 points, or 1.8%, to 3998.84, falling back after rebounding in November on expectations that the fed would slow the pace of rate hikes. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 482.78 points, or 1.4%, to 33947.10, while the Nasdaq index fell 221.56 points, or 1.9%, to 11239.94.

The Institute for supply Management's services index stood at 56.5 in November, up from 54.4 in October and higher than expected at 53.7. Factory orders rose 1 per cent in October, higher than market expectations of 0.7 per cent, according to the US Department of Commerce (Commerce Department). The figures follow a relatively strong employment report.

David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co Fund (JPMorgan Funds), said the rally in both U.S. stocks and Treasuries in November was enough to make a correction like today inevitable. "We expect some kind of pullback," he said. "

Karl Chalupa, chief executive and co-founder of Gamma Investment Consulting, said investors had focused more on the good news and were betting that the Fed would be more dovish. But he expects the economy to slow and the stock market to turn lower after the holiday. "the market is trading driven by good news," he said. "from our point of view, this is impossible. "

Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) strategist Mike Wilson also warned that the rebound that has enveloped the market in recent weeks has been too long and should take a breath.

"as expected, the fall in back-end interest rates contributed to the continuation of this bear market rally," Wilson wrote in a new report on Monday. "however, given last week's price movements, the S & P is now just entering our initial target range of 4000-4150. Although the index has slightly exceeded the 200-day moving average and the upside continues to expand, the downward trend since the start of the year remains. This makes the risk and return of chasing more upside opportunities at this point very low, and we are now selling again. "

A few weeks ago, Wilson correctly predicted a rebound in the market. In the past month, the s & p 500 and NASDAQ are up more than 6% and 7%, respectively, while the Dow Jones industrial average is up 5%. The dollar's rally was fuelled by a pullback in the dollar, signs of inflation peaking and the possibility that the Fed may be about to slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

But last week's better-than-expected November jobs report raised questions about whether the Fed could adopt a more dovish policy, undermining investor optimism.

"maintain defensive [healthcare, utilities and Staples] allocations as interest rates are likely to fall further next year and economic growth and inflation continue to slow," Mr Wilson said. Given the profit risks faced by companies, growth stocks are unlikely to benefit from the current fall in interest rates, especially technology and consumer-oriented companies with a large weight in the growth index. "

Other Wall Street strategists are also cautious about the stock market in 2022. Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) said that earnings growth for the S & P 500 is expected to be zero next year, and the index will be the same as this year.

Goldman Sachs Group strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said: "as real yields are likely to rise and economic growth uncertainty lingers, we remain relatively defensive for the next three months. "

Edit / phoebe

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