A new round of oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 today, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

According to the National Development and Reform Commission price monitoring center monitoring, the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (November 21-December 2) international oil prices dropped sharply. On average, WTI oil prices in Brent in London and New York are 8.39 per cent lower than in the last price adjustment cycle. This is also the ninth downgrade this year.In some areas, No. 92 gasoline has returned to the range of 7 yuan.

The agency estimates that as of December 2, the ninth working day of the current round of oil price adjustment cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 82.15 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of-7.96%. Domestic gasoline and diesel are expected to be reduced by about 420 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.31-0.35 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel.

Wang Yanting, an oil product analyst at Jinlian, said that the Group of Seven countries have always been divided on the price of Russian oil, and the price limit policy may be more flexible, which has partly allayed investors' concerns about supply tightening. In addition, economic expansion is expected to slow, demand concerns continue to rise, and crude oil prices fluctuated lower for a time.

Oil price volatility may intensify in the short term

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center pointed out that on the one hand, inflation in developed economies remains high, curbing the growth of the global economy and crude oil demand. The CPI of the United Kingdom and the euro zone reached record highs in October, and the British Chancellor of the Exchequer admitted that the economy had fallen into recession. On the other hand, the continued growth of refined oil stocks in the United States has also put pressure on oil prices.

According to the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, oil price shocks may intensify in the short term.

Specifically, on December 2nd, the Group of Seven and the European Union agreed to set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil exports, which Russia said would be countered. Second, the International Energy Agency expects Russian crude oil production to fall by 2 million barrels a day in the first quarter of next year because of the embargo and price caps. In addition, the "OPEC +" monthly meeting maintained the current production plan and did not implement new production reduction measures to balance the oil market.

On the whole, the global crude oil supply is still fragile, there are many uncertain factors, and the game among all parties will lead to increased market price fluctuations.

OPEC+, stay put.

On the eve of the entry into force of European and American oil sanctions against Russia, OPEC+ held a video ministerial meeting online, which decided to maintain the production reduction route set at the ministerial meeting in October.

According to a statement issued by OPEC, the decision is necessary and the right course of action to stabilize the global oil market because of market considerations. The meeting will adhere to a proactive and pre-emptive approach and take additional measures to deal with price changes in a timely manner to support the balance and stability of the oil market.

Al-Murra, Kuwait's oil minister, said after the meeting that slowing global economic growth, soaring inflation and the impact of high interest rates on oil demand were the reasons for "continued caution" and OPEC+ wanted to ensure market stability.

According to analysts, OPEC+ now hopes to assess the impact of the next series of oil sanctions on the market and observe the oil demand prospects of some countries before making a decision. If necessary, OPEC+ can hold a special meeting temporarily and respond in a timely manner in a very short period of time.

Chuang Information refined oil analysts said that in the later stage, on the basis of "OPEC +" keeping production unchanged, the European oil export ban is about to be implemented, superimposed by the increased probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in mid-December, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in a wide range. Generally speaking, at the beginning of the next cycle, the rate of change of crude oil is still in a negative range, and the retail price of refined oil may have the possibility of "three consecutive falls".

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