Overview of the company. The first share is a state-owned real estate enterprise in Beijing, led by the controlling shareholder. As of 2022Q3, the majority shareholder first opened a group holding of 52.65%, with a stable ownership structure. Junkang Life, Hengqin Life and Centennial Life also showed the value of the company. The company's real estate business started in Beijing and continued to consolidate its stronghold advantages while expanding into core cities outside Beijing.

Land reserves are of high quality, based in Beijing, the layout of the core of the first and second line. By the end of June 2022, the company had a stock of 2299.7 million square meters of land storage, with a corresponding multiple of about 6.1 times, taking the lead among listed housing enterprises. The company focuses on high-energy cities, 39.6% of the stock is located in Beijing, 83.7% is located in the first and second lines, and core cities such as Suzhou, Fuzhou, Chengdu and Xiamen outside Beijing. Since 2021, with the decline of the real estate market, the company has prudently expanded land reserves and reduced the intensity of land acquisition, but land acquisition has been further concentrated in core cities such as Beijing. Since 2021, the proportion of first-and second-tier land acquisition has remained at more than 90%. From January to October in 2021, the proportion of land acquisition in Beijing reached 72% and 93% respectively.

Strong sales resilience, has been sold and outstanding resources are sufficient. Relying on high-quality and abundant land reserves, the company's sales showed strong resilience during the downward period of the market. The ranking of full-caliber sales from January to October in 2022 rose to 22nd from 38th in 2021, and the sales improvement since September has been more obvious. October sales have changed from negative to positive in the same month compared with the same month last year. In addition, the sales equity ratio rose to 67.7% from January to October this year, which is higher than that in 2021. 9.5pct. The company started actively in 2022, and the area of new construction increased by 27.5% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. It is the only company with positive growth among the 11 listed housing companies in which the data are disclosed, and the subsequent sales growth is guaranteed. 2022H1's contract debt totaled 63.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.5 percent over the end of 2021, providing a guarantee for settlement in the second half of the year.

In line with the trend, debt-paying ability has been continuously optimized and financing channels have been unblocked. (1) companies in the downward period of the industry pay more attention to financial security, and have achieved remarkable results in reducing liabilities since 2021. Compared with the end of 2020, the net debt ratio of 2021H1 and the debt ratio excluding pre-assets have decreased by 33.4pct and 2.6pct respectively, and the ratio of cash and short debt has been maintained at more than 1 since 2021.

(2) under the background of the continuous tightening of the financing environment in the industry, as the head of the local state-owned enterprise, the company relies on Beijing SASAC, and the financing channel is smooth. Since 2022, the company has actively issued bonds for financing. By November 30, the company has issued a total of 20.9 billion yuan of bonds, with a net financing of 14.9 billion yuan. The duration of issuing bonds has been extended and the cost has remained low. In addition, the financing channels of companies under the policy support for high-quality housing enterprises have also been continuously enriched.

Investment advice: (1) real estate business plate. According to the new construction and completion disclosed by the company, combined with the increase in concentration brought about by the supply-side contraction of leading housing enterprises, assuming that the company's sales growth rate is-20%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%, Combined with past income growth and gross profit margin, it is predicted that the company's operating income such as hotel property operation will grow by 5% from 2022 to 2024, and the gross profit margin will be maintained at about 40%. All in all, the operating income of the forecast company from 2022 to 2024 is 4270.532max 61.6 billion yuan, the net profit returned to the mother is 4.2pm 1.23cm RMB, the EPS is 0.16pm 0.48pm 0.75 yuan, and the net asset per share is 12.90pm 13.70max 15.02 yuan. For the first time, it was given a "overweight-A" rating with a 6-month target price of 8.50 yuan per share.

Risk tips: the promotion of real estate policy is not as expected, the caliber deviation of statistics, the decline of real estate sales is higher than expected, and the settlement area is weaker than expected.