本文来源于海通国际《消费行业 2023 年度投资策略：消费恢复仍有波折，投资先必选后可选》
海通国际近日发表研报表示消费行业2023年度投资策略，该机构表示，持续看好消费行业，建议前期优先选择需求平稳的必选消费，特别是估值偏低的优秀公司，在疫后变化明朗后再布局可选消费。
需求：疫后消费恢复仍有波折
我们对国外研究发现：去年海外防疫放开后，多数国家和地区零售额实现恢复性增长，今年以来则基本企稳，回归疫前趋势；日本、韩国和台湾地区消费信心在短暂修复后甚至再次回落；疫后非耐用品消费持续温和复苏，耐用品消费快速反弹并于两个季度内完成「填坑」，但服务业消费恢复则相对缓慢且滞后。
结合国内情况，2023年我们相对看好啤酒、乳制品、预制菜等全年增长，白酒、餐饮、纺服等下半年好转。
成本：CPI和PPI背离提高盈利
随着需求恢复、农产品涨价和服务业出清，明年国内CPI大概率温和上行。而国外经济衰退和国内房产低迷，可能导致商品价格下跌并拖累PPI。HTI消费品成本指数显示：目前软饮料、啤酒、乳制品、方便面、调味品现货指数同比分别下降14%、9%、9%、7%和6%，调味品、软饮料、啤酒、方便面期货指数同比分别下降11%、9%、7%和2%。
资金：内外资均有望否极泰来
历史数据显示股市资金面与行情正相关。随着我国基本面和政策面向上趋势进一步确认，市场情绪将得到提振。居民储蓄率可能从22年的约35%高位连续多年下降，基金、股票类投资占比有望低位回升。陆股通资金截至11月上旬今年净流入几乎为零，一改多年持续大幅净流入的状况。而对国外衰退担忧加剧，国内疫情防控和汇率贬值担忧缓解，11月中下旬多日净流入高达百亿左右，2023年有望重回大幅净流入。
估值：A股和H股比美股更低
A股食品饮料行业PE（TTM）处于2011年至2019年（较新冠疫情前）的75%分位（31.4x）；子行业分位较低的是肉制品（0%，17.3x）、保健品（11%，23.0x）和乳品（23%，24.8x）。
H股必需性消费行业处于77%分位（21.6x）；子行业分位较低的是包装食品（0%，12.2x）、超市及便利店（0%，11.2x）和乳制品（4%，13.3x）。
美股日常消费品行业处于100%分位（25.7x）；子行业分位较低的是食品零售（31%，13.5x）、烟草（46%，16.4x）和啤酒（65%，23.9x）。
建议：持续看好消费行业，建议先必选后可选
近日全国所有省级地区都受到疫情干扰，新增患者数量再创年内新高。展望明年，预计疫情管控放宽概率较大，但对照国外消费复苏可能先抑后扬甚至先抑后平。
因此，建议前期优先选择需求平稳的必选消费，特别是估值偏低的优秀公司，在疫后变化明朗后再布局可选消费。食品饮料主要子行业推荐排序为：啤酒=乳制品=高端白酒=养殖业>区域性白酒=调味品>次高端白酒=方便食品。
看多个股为华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、伊利股份、蒙牛乳业、中国飞鹤、贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、洋河股份、迎驾贡酒、金龙鱼、牧原股份、优然牧业、现代牧业等；看空个股为古井贡酒、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、百威亚太、海天味业等。其他消费行业推荐个股为中国中免、锦江酒店、海尔智家、欧派家居、李宁等。
This article comes from Haitong International's "Investment Strategy of Consumer Industry in 2023: consumption recovery still has twists and turns, and investment must be selected first and then optional".
Haitong International recently published a research report on the investment strategy of the consumer industry in 2023. The agency said that it continues to be optimistic about the consumer industry and suggests that priority should be given to the necessary consumption with stable demand in the early stage, especially excellent companies with low valuations. After the change is clear after the epidemic, then the layout of optional consumption.
Demand: there are still twists and turns in the recovery of consumption after the epidemic
We have found that after the liberalization of overseas epidemic prevention last year, retail sales in most countries and regions achieved restorative growth, but since the beginning of this year, retail sales have basically stabilized and returned to the pre-epidemic trend. Consumer confidence in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan even fell again after a brief repair. After the epidemic, non-durable goods consumption continued to recover moderately, and durable goods consumption rebounded rapidly and completed "filling the hole" within two quarters, but the recovery of service industry consumption was relatively slow and lagging behind.
Combined with the domestic situation, in 2023 weWe are relatively optimistic about the growth of beer, dairy products and prepared vegetables for the whole year, while spirits, catering and textile clothing will improve in the second half of the year.
Cost: CPI and PPI deviate to increase profitability
With the recovery of demand, rising prices of agricultural products and clearing of services, there is a good chance that domestic CPI will rise moderately next year. The foreign economic recession and domestic housing downturn may lead to a fall in commodity prices and a drag on PPI. The HTI consumer cost index shows that the spot index of soft drinks, beer, dairy products, instant noodles and condiments is down 14%, 9%, 9%, 7% and 6% respectively from the same period last year, while the futures index of condiments, soft drinks, beer and instant noodles is down 11%, 9%, 7% and 2% respectively from the same period last year.
Capital: both domestic and foreign capital are expected to be extremely successful.
Historical data show that the capital side of the stock market is positively related to the market. With the further confirmation of the upward trend of China's fundamentals and policies, market sentiment will be boosted. The household savings rate is likely to decline for many years from a high of about 35% in 22 years, and the proportion of investment in funds and stocks is expected to rise at a low level. The net inflow of Lukutong funds this year was almost zero as of early November, a change from the situation that has been sustained for many years. On the other hand, worries about recession abroad have intensified, and concerns about domestic epidemic prevention and control and exchange rate depreciation have eased. The net inflow in mid-to-late November has reached about 10 billion yuan, and it is expected to return to a substantial net inflow in 2023.
Valuations: a shares and H shares are lower than US stocks
The A-share food and beverage industry PE (TTM) is in the 75% quartile (31.4x) from 2011 to 2019 (higher than that before the COVID-19 epidemic); the lower quantiles in the sub-industry are meat products (0% menus 17.3x), health products (11% meme 23.0x) and dairy products (23% dairies 24.8x).
The H-share essential consumer industry is in the 77% quartile (21.6x); the lower quantiles in the sub-industry are packaged food (0% meme 12.2x), supermarkets and convenience stores (0% meme 11.2x) and dairy products (4% meme 13.3x).
The US stock consumer goods industry is in the 100% quantile (25.7x); the lower quantiles in the sub-sectors are food retailing (31 per cent), tobacco (46 per cent 16.4x) and beer (65 per cent 23.9x).
Suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the consumer industry, it is recommended that you must choose first and then choose.
Recently, all provincial regions across the country have been disturbed by the epidemic, and the number of new patients has reached a new high this year. Looking forward to next year, it is expected that the control of the epidemic is more likely to be relaxed, but compared with the recovery of foreign consumption, it may first restrain and then rise or even flatten.
therefore,It is suggested that priority should be given to the necessary consumption with stable demand in the early stage, especially the excellent companies with low valuation, and then distribute the optional consumption after the change is clear after the epidemic.The recommended order of the main food and beverage sub-industries is as follows: beer = dairy products = high-end liquor = aquaculture > regional liquor = condiment > sub-high-end liquor = convenience food.
Look at multiple stocksFor China Resources Beer, Tsing Tao Beer, Chongqing Beer, Yili shares, China Mengniu Dairy, China Feihe Limited, Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou laojiao, Yanghe shares, Yingjiagong Liquor, Golden Dragon Fish, Pastoral shares, Youran Animal Husbandry, Modern Animal Husbandry, etc.Be bearish on individual stocksFor Gujing tribute wine, willing wine industry, alcoholic wine, Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited, Haitian flavor industry and so on.Recommend individual stocks in other consumer industriesFor China exemption, Jinjiang Hotel, Haier Smart Home, Oupai Home, Li Ning Co. Ltd. and so on.
