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一周策略:跨年行情徐徐展开!消费板块正接力,成长反弹在酝酿前期

Weekly Strategy: The New Year's Eve Market Is Slowly Unfolding! The consumer sector is relaying, and a rebound in growth is in the early stages of preparation

券商中國 ·  Dec 5, 2022 07:31

Source: brokerage China

Author: Wang Lulu

CITIC: the new steady state is gradually approaching, and the three main lines are gradually clear.

It is expected that a new steady state of normalized prevention and control will be gradually formed in the process of optimization of the "New 20 articles", and a new steady state of economic weakness recovery will also be gradually formed in the implementation of the "16 articles" and other stable growth policies in real estate. The inflection point of the US dollar interest rate increase rhythm has been established, and domestic monetary policy has concentrated efforts to provide support for valuation repair.

Currently in the first half of the policy-driven period.It is recommended to increase the position, balanced allocation of accurate prevention and control, real estate industry chain, global liquidity inflection point three main lines:

The beneficiary section of accurate prevention and control of ① epidemic, focusing on COVID-19-related vaccines, specific drugs, consumer medical devices, medicine circulation, etc.

The "second Arrow" of ② Real Estate accelerates its landing to boost market expectations, focusing on high-quality real estate developers, building materials of the real estate industry chain, home appliances and high-quality banks whose previous valuations are suppressed, and benefiting from the insurance of long-end interest rates.

③ global liquidity inflection point is expected to occur, focusing on Hong Kong stocks and precious metals.

CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD: the future is bright, and it is inevitable to be bumpy.

December is still in the stage of mobile warfare. From the medium-term trend, the market rebounded after the second bottom of the year. The catalyst for this rally comes from the three big positives that began in early November:

1) continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policy: the "20 articles" on epidemic prevention and control promote China's consumption recovery and economic recovery, and promote the recovery of exchanges between China and the world, which is conducive to the improvement of fundamental expectations and the inflow of foreign capital.

2) overseas contraction is expected to ease after the US CPI is lower than expected, further boosting foreign capital inflows

3) the real estate financing policy turned, and the real estate "three arrows" dispelled the market's worries about the previously uninsured entities of the Baojiao building. Looking back on this market, despite the disturbance in the middle, three medium-term clues promote the overall upward trend of the market. The recent three medium-term clues generally continue the trend of improvement.

The layout direction takes into account policy expectations, economic expectations and industry rotation, focusing on agriculture, computers, photovoltaic, military industry, new infrastructure and so on.

Guotai Junan Securities: appropriately increase risk exposure, blue chip before growth

Reconsider the expected turning point: moderately increase risk exposure and capture new changes. Important expected turning points and still relatively low stock valuations mean that even the room for adjustment is relatively limited, while the moderate enlargement of positions and exposures of risky assets during this period is more helpful to capture new marginal changes and cyclical trends.

Adjustment is an opportunity to increase positions whenever they fall.Portfolio management is moving towards positive: blue chip before growth.

Looking back, although the path to recovery is still complex, the portfolio can be more active, choosing fully adjusted share prices, repairing more "recovery assets" in 2023 and "emerging assets" around transformation and upgrading, substitution rates and growth. Blue chip before growth.

China International Capital Corporation: the mood is picking up, and the market is still in the layout period.

Although the transmission of policy to growth and the effectiveness of economic improvement still need to be further observed, in view of the increasing support policies in areas such as epidemic prevention and control, real estate and other areas, the expectation of stable policy growth continues to strengthen at the end of the year. The superimposed market already has more characteristics of a partial bottom in the early stage of the superposition market. I reiterate that I have a neutral and positive view of the A-share market in the next 12 months in the recently released outlook for the A-share market in 2023. In particular, attention should be paid to the phased opportunities that may be ushered in by the index from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year.

Configuration suggestion: keep pace with the marginal change of policy in the short term and grow in the medium term.

1) areas where expectations are not high and marginal policy changes are greatly affected, such as real estate chains and consumption affected by the epidemic, including food and beverages, household appliances, light industry, household, etc.

2) China's competitive manufacturing growth track with high prosperity, policy support, including science and technology software and hardware, high-end manufacturing, military industry, etc.

3) where the stock price is relatively fully adjusted and the medium-and long-term prospects remain clear, such as medicine and the Internet, the timing of allocation needs to wait for the expected change in policy.

China Merchants: a-share has returned to the upward cycle and entered a two-year structural bull.

Entering December 2022, A shares are expected to continue the previous upward trend. At present, the economy is facing new downward pressure, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic work Conference are about to be held, a prudent monetary policy is beginning to be more robust, and the probability of increasing the policy of stabilizing growth is further increased. The policy of precise prevention and control of epidemic situation is more effective, and the expectation of the market for the improvement of epidemic situation in the future is increased. External liquidity has improved and the RMB has appreciated steadily against the dollar. On the domestic side, due to the reduction of cost pressure and the strengthening of stable growth in the future, there is a greater probability that profits will bottom out after entering the third quarter.

It is expected that there will be more specific measures to stabilize economic growth at the meeting of the political Bureau and the Central Economic work Conference in December, and there will be more clear measures in the areas of stabilizing real estate, traditional infrastructure, medical infrastructure and digital new infrastructure.At the level of epidemic prevention and control, more specific arrangements are expected to further enhance the market's expectations of the impact of China's economy coming out of the epidemic next year. Us inflation data have turned downward, economic data have weakened, and room for further interest rate hikes is expected to be further limited after the December rate hike boots landed.

The depreciation pressure of RMB against the US dollar has been reduced, and foreign capital has continued to return to A-shares. A-shares have returned to the upward cycle and entered a two-year structural bull. In terms of style, before the Spring Festival, it is more conducive to stable growth policy landing related to the performance of the plate.

GF Securities Co., LTD.: dawn breaking! Hong Kong stocks ushered in strategic opportunities, with much greater flexibility than A-shares.

AH dawn, Hong Kong stock bull market, A-share repair market. The bottom of domestic policy has been consolidated again in November, the bottom of overseas policy has emerged, and AH has dawned. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the strategic bottom of Hong Kong stocks.

The biggest opportunity for the equity market in 2023 comes from the relative advantage of "growth and decline" between China and the United States, and the AH market is mainly driven by valuation repair: downward risk premium (capital market positioning is important, more optimistic about stable growth), and downside risk-free interest rates (US debt interest rates are peaking and falling), discount rate downward drive AH shares up, A shares go to repair market, Hong Kong stocks go bull market.

Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive than A shares in both molecular and mother-to-mother ends; the three stages of the Hong Kong stock bull market, in turn, the driving forces come from: the decline of risk premium, the revaluation of value, the realization of corporate profits, and the allocation of the "three arrows" of Hong Kong stock investment in 2023 (steady growth + epidemic prevention optimization + overseas liquidity reversal).

Industry configuration: → reconstruction in the first half of 2023 and → breakthrough in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the focus is on economic "bottom support" and confidence "reconstruction", and the breakthrough of structural "transformation" and competitiveness in the second half of the year.

1. Supporting the bottom: steady growth shows strength and determination, the confidence of the real estate chain builds the bottom (leading housing enterprises / banks / building materials / household appliances), and the enlightenment of the optimal path of epidemic prevention under overseas high vaccination rate (medical equipment / specific drugs / leisure services).

2. Reconstruction: reconstruction of confidence and order, important positioning of capital market and revaluation of central state-owned enterprises (energy central enterprise / science and technology central enterprise / Science and Technology Innovation Board), Internet antitrust policy is expected to be stable (Internet / platform economy).

3. Transformation: explore the backbone of the manufacturing industry, the recovery of the manufacturing industry driven by the warming of medium-and long-term loans (general equipment / new energy equipment), the potential expansion direction of the new energy vehicle industry chain (new energy vehicle chain in energy storage / general equipment), green and intelligent driven by the technology cycle (composite copper foil / temperature control equipment / silicon carbide).

4. Breakthrough: national security concept "top-down" strategic upgrading, energy security / supply chain security / information security / national defense security (oil and gas equipment / machine tools / semiconductor equipment / Xinchuang / aerospace).

Anxin Securities: the consumer sector is relaying, and growth is rebounding in the early gestation.

At present, the incremental funds of A-shares have warmed up, market confidence has improved significantly, there is not much suspense that the RMB exchange rate has reversed to 7, and the core contradictions in the market have shifted to the game of domestic epidemic and policy expectations. At present, the positive expectation of the policy obviously has the upper hand, maintaining the judgment that "facing the tactical rebound with a more optimistic attitude, the small spring in winter is worth looking forward to". The short-term industry rotation follows the deductive path of real estate-consumption-growth, the current consumer sector is relaying, and the rebound around growth is in the early stages of gestation.

Short-term overdistribution industry: real estate (chain); consumption (beer, travel, liquor, etc.); medicine related to epidemic situation; copper and gold; auto parts; domestic substitution represented by CNC machine tools and cutting tools, ultrasonic welding, high-power bearings; digital economy represented by computer (Xinchuang); green power industry chain represented by energy storage. Theme investment: focus on state-owned enterprises and central enterprises around the valuation system with Chinese characteristics.

Societe Generale Securities: the market is expected to pick up further, focusing on large consumption + state-owned enterprises

With the mitigation of internal and external risks, the market is expected to pick up further. Since November, the domestic epidemic has been repeated, which has become the main restraining force on economic expectations and A-share market. And right now:

1) with the optimization of epidemic prevention measures, market worries about the economy are expected to be alleviated.

2) various "steady growth" policies are also accelerating their landing and are expected to underpin the economy. Since mid-November, policy easing measures such as the reduction of reserve requirements, the "sixteen articles of finance", and the extension and expansion of the real estate "second arrow" have been intensified intensively, and on November 28, the CSRC announced that it has decided to adjust and optimize five measures in terms of equity financing, marking the launch of the "third arrow" in support of real estate financing.

3) external risks are also weakening and foreign capital is returning substantially. Although the November non-farm and average hourly wage data in the United States released on December 2 exceeded expectations, the market continued to gamble that the Federal Reserve slowed the pace of raising interest rates in December, leading to a fall in US debt interest rates and the dollar index, and the return of foreign investment. Since November 11, the northward capital of Land Stock Exchange has flowed 80.9 billion.

4) from the perspective of valuation and equity risk premium, the current market is still in the bottom area of high performance-to-price ratio. As of December 2, PE valuations of 12.4 times for the Shanghai Composite Index and 39.5 times for the gem index are still at historic lows, while equity risk premiums are at historic highs of 74% and 95% respectively since 2010.

Structurally, in the short term, we will continue to focus on the repair opportunities of large consumption and central state-owned enterprises.

1) consumption: on the one hand, the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policy is expected to boost the performance and repair expectations of large consumption. On the other hand, there was a sharp outflow of foreign investment from mid-October to early November, which once hit the consumer sector. Recently, foreign investment has been falling rapidly, and consumption is still the direction of its key allocation.

2) State-owned enterprises: intensive catalysis of all kinds of policies and events in the near future. On November 21, Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, proposed to "explore the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics". At the same time, the weight plate in the early internal and external risk impact, the current valuation has been at the bottom of history, there is room for repair.

Yue Kai Securities: the New year market is slowly unfolding, and it is more cautious in short-term optimism.

In December, market expectations for "New year's market / spring restlessness" are gradually heating up.From the review of the past 15 years, the probability of "New year market / spring restlessness" is indeed high, but the duration and amplitude are quite different. It has been more than 20 trading days since the launch of this round of market, during which the biggest increase is about 10%. Combined with the current situation of "weak reality and strong expectations", it is recommended to be more cautious in an optimistic situation in the short term.

The inflection point of the real estate industry policy is the ballast stone to support the economic stabilization and recovery, but from the experience of the relaxation and optimization of overseas epidemic prevention policy, the recovery is not achieved overnight, so the game differences in the market may increase in this process. But it needs to be emphasized that in the long run, the characteristics of the bottom of the market are clear, and the trend of future repair is clear.

In terms of configuration, the layout is low and flexible, and appropriate valuation switching is considered.Focus on three main lines of logic:

First, under the optimization of epidemic prevention, the repair market of the damaged plates in the early stage, such as biomedical, aviation, wine and tourism, etc.

Second, the marginal policy of the industry under the demand for stable growth is loose, such as the real estate industry chain and the Internet.

Third, long-term around the theme of security, energy security, independent control, as well as Xinchuang, traditional Chinese medicine and other plates. In terms of theme investment, it is suggested to pay attention to the reform of state-owned enterprises, La Nina phenomenon and so on.

Huaxi Securities: actively dealing with the closing month, the policy of "stable growth" has become the biggest focus.

Actively respond to the closing month, the "steady growth" policy has become the biggest focus. As A-shares enter the closing month at the end of the year, the slowdown in overseas tightening, the weakening of the dollar index and the landing of domestic reserve cuts, the liquidity environment continues to remain loose, and domestic policies are expected to be the main contradiction.

Focus on the main thread of policy in the meeting of the political Bureau and the Central Economic work Conference in December, the direction of "steady growth" will be the biggest focus, and it is expected that the optimization of epidemic prevention, steady growth of real estate, and active finance are important directions. A shares are expected to climb slowly in the shock, and should dare to make strategic configuration at this stage.

December market, the proposed allocation of undervalued blue chip + part of the growth, attention: real estate and upstream and downstream industrial chain, new energy, military industry and so on. Theme investment focuses on Xinchuang, self-controllable, traditional Chinese medicine and so on.

Edit / phoebe

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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