Zhitong Financial APP learned that Goldman Sachs Group released a research report saying that although there is a shipping downward cycle, it is bullish on Chinese port stocks based on the defensive model and rising rates. Chinese port fees are expected to rise by 2 per cent a year in 2023 / 24, while China Merchants Port (00144) and COSCO Shipping Port (01199) are expected to increase by 3 per cent and 2 per cent per year. The two share prices have adjusted from 20% to 30% from high, and the current price is at an all-time high, which the bank believes is unreasonable because the market ignores the defensive model of the relevant stocks and the stability of dividends per share.

The bank said it was bearish on container shipping and expected COSCO Shipping Holdings's (01919) profits to fall in the face of oversupply and falling freight rates. It is estimated that its freight (adjusted for fuel) will peak this year, falling by 46%, 26% and 21% in 2023-25 compared with the same period last year. At the same time, it is estimated that the unit cost will increase by 2% a year until 2025, bringing the profit margin before tax and interest to 15% in 2023-25. 4% and 11%. COSCO Shipping Holdings's H / A share price has adjusted from a high 40 per cent to 50 per cent, and the current price does not reflect a possible loss in 2025. As freight rates begin to adjust, the group may decline further as the market is not aware of the higher capacity in 2023 / 24.