Configuration main line: pay attention to the catalysis of the actual effect of the policy, and the market is in the layout period.

Since November, the marginal optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policy, we think that its signal significance is worthy of attention. In the near future, the domestic real estate policy continues to make efforts from the supply side to improve the market and the expectations of potential home buyers, and it is necessary to continuously track the extent of improvement in real estate fundamentals after the policy landing. Towards the end of the year, pay attention to the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic work Conference that may be held in December.

From a configuration point of view, we need to pay attention to:

1) marginal optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policy.

The recent epidemic prevention policy optimizes the quarantine time, epidemic-related and immigration management rules, and focuses on correcting "layer-by-layer increase" and other problems. Despite the recent domestic outbreaks, we believe that policy optimization will help improve investors' expectations of future economic fundamentals.

2) the increase of real estate policy will help stabilize growth.

Recently, support policies for the real estate sector have been introduced intensively, including debt issuance and financing by private enterprises, including real estate enterprises, the central bank and the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission launched 16 financial measures to support the stabilization and recovery of real estate, and the Securities Regulatory Commission decided to resume mergers and acquisitions and supporting financing and refinancing of listed real estate companies, and so on.

Generally speaking, the current policies on both sides of supply and demand in the real estate industry have been strengthened, from bank credit support, bond financing to equity financing, which will help to alleviate the credit difficulties of real estate developers and optimize the liquidity as a whole. help to boost market confidence and promote fundamentals to stabilize.

3) build a modern capital market with Chinese characteristics and explore the valuation system with Chinese characteristics.

On November 21, the chairman of the CSRC made an important speech on the construction and development of China's capital market at the 2022 Financial Street Forum, expounding how to build a "modern capital market with Chinese characteristics" and "exploring the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics". We believe that the long-term valuation hub of the A-share market will remain stable and have room for improvement, while paying attention to risk premium fluctuations.

From the perspective of structure, the valuation structure of A-shares has room for improvement, especially for some banks and state-owned listed enterprises. In the process of actively building a "modern capital market with Chinese characteristics", investors are expected to gradually improve their understanding of listed state-owned enterprises and the financial sector.

Configuration suggestions: the area of policy support is expected to maintain relative performance

The market already has many characteristics of partial bottom in the early stage, and the key to expected improvement lies in the repair strength of the fundamentals.

We recommend that you focus on the following configuration ideas in the next 3-6 months:

1) the areas with low expectations and marginal policy changes are mainly affected by the epidemic and real estate-related areas, such as real estate chain, consumption affected by the epidemic, and so on.

We believe that with the marginal changes in the epidemic and real estate policies and the continued efforts of "steady growth", the repair of domestic growth is expected to show an inflection point in the future, which is still the focus of judging the follow-up market interpretation. In this context, the previous plate suppressed by macro fundamentals, such as the real estate industry chain, consumer plate, etc., are expected to have phased allocation opportunities, and the long-term trend still needs to see fundamental repair.

We suggest that we should grasp the sectors that benefit from the policy in the short term, such as the real estate-related industrial chain, and pay attention to the overall allocation opportunities of the pro-cyclical plate before and after the upward inflection point of growth.

2) banks and listed state-owned enterprises.

Under the background of building a "modern capital market with Chinese characteristics" and "exploring the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics", the attention of banks and listed state-owned enterprises is expected to increase. follow-up attention to the possible impact of capital market construction on related fields and possible responses from the level of banks and listed state-owned enterprises.

3) pay attention to the long-term allocation opportunities of the main line of high-quality development.

It includes the computer software industry that deduces the domestic substitution logic, and the new energy industry chain and power operation that continuously maintain high prosperity and high capital expenditure growth under the strategies of "energy security" and "carbon neutralization". At present, the overall expectation of the growth sector is not low, and the position is relatively heavy. Before there is an obvious inflection point in market sentiment and fundamentals, systematic allocation opportunities still need to be observed.

Major adjustments to industry configuration in December

Up-regulationBuilding materials, light industry household, banking, telecommunications services, media, communications equipment, home appliances, hotels and tourism, medicine

Downgrade oil refining and chemical industry, coal, iron and steel, electronic materials, city gas, national defense military industry, computer, trade and retail, textile and clothing.

Conclusion of industry configuration in December

Super matchingHotel and tourism, household appliances, light industry, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing

Low distribution water and environmental protection, city gas, trade and retail, textile and clothing, iron and steel.