The concept of keeping out the cold in winter today has attracted financial attention.The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue an orange warning for the cold wave at 10:00 on the 29th. Today and tomorrow (November 29-30), the cold wave will continue to sweep across most of central and eastern China from north to south, and the temperature will drop sharply.

With the comprehensive arrival of the northern heating season, the domestic natural gas supply work is also carried out in advance before the heating season. The weather cooling or directly catalyze the coal market, winter cold concept stocks.

The cold wave holds the hot concept stock.

As one of the directions of cold wave speculation, gas stocks are strong today. On individual stocks, China Gas rose more than 4%, Tianlun Gas rose nearly 4%, Kunlun Energy rose nearly 3%, Hong Kong China Smart Energy rose more than 2%, China Resources Gas and ENN Energy rose nearly 2%.

In addition to the gas supply sector, Hong Kong A coal stocks are also strong, of which A shares are up by the daily limit of Ningbo, Yuanxing Energy, Huayang Energy and Yanzhou Mining Energy are up more than 3%; Hong Kong stocks South South Resources are up nearly 8%, Yanzhou Coal Australia and Power Development are up nearly 5%, Yanzhou Mining Energy is up more than 4%, Yitai Coal is up nearly 4%.

Cooling supports heating demand, natural gas or coal may open upstream channels.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total profits of the oil and gas mining industry increased 1.1 times from January to October compared with the same period last year. As for the trend of natural gas prices, the East Asian Qianhai Securities Research report points out that long-term and short-term factors are two-way driven, and global natural gas prices may remain high.

Natural gasEarlier, an organization analyzed in the research newspaper that:

In the American marketWeather forecasts show that temperatures in most parts of the United States will drop by the end of November, stimulating increased demand for heating. At the same time, workers' strike action may affect the shipping volume of coal, thereby increasing the purchasing demand for natural gas in power plants, driving the upward trend of NYMEX HH futures prices.
In the Northwestern continental marketThe market supply and demand pattern has not changed much from the previous day: on the demand side, the weather forecast shows that the regional temperature will decline in early December, stimulating an increase in refrigeration demand. On the supply side, the amount of pipeline gas transported from the United Kingdom to Northwest Europe is still at a low level.
In the Northeast Asian marketAs temperatures drop, major consumer countries continue to stock up for the winter. At the same time, the postponement of the reopening of the Freeport export terminal to mid-December also supported market prices in Northeast Asia to a certain extent.

Looking to the future, the analyst said that with the further decline in temperatures in the northern hemisphere, the global natural gas market is gradually transitioning to the winter market, and regional markets are gradually strengthening.

Coal aspectAccording to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national coal output in October was 370 million tons, down 4.3 percent from the previous month, indicating that domestic production still faces certain restrictions. in terms of imported coal, China imported 29.18 million tons of coal in October, down 11.7 percent from the previous month. Indonesia's low-calorie lignite accounted for 40.6%, and the actual calorific value effect decreased. On the demand side, the heating season has arrived, the country has begun to heat one after another, and the daily consumption of power plants has bottomed out and continued to rise.

The Open Source Securities Research report pointed out that on the supply side, the output increment is still uncertain. Although there is a certain amount of guaranteed supply and nuclear increase capacity in the heating season, it is also the norm in the annual heating season. However, the multi-point spread of the epidemic is an important restricting factor affecting the start of construction. At the same time, the rapid increase in production also indirectly leads to frequent coal mine accidents, which further restricts the release of output. On the demand side, the whole country will enter the heating season in November, and there will be a sharp drop in temperature in the south next week, the daily consumption of thermal coal is expected to jump sharply, replenishment will also continue, thermal coal prices still have upward momentum and are expected to rebound after entering the peak season.

The overseas energy crisis is still grim. Imports of thermal coal from Western Europe rose 20.6 per cent in October from a year earlier, up 34 per cent from a month earlier. In addition, the high inventory of natural gas in Europe is based on warmer weather and the fragility of curbing demand. Europe is still likely to increase its procurement of coal and natural gas in winter, which will pose a greater challenge to China's coal imports.

Minsheng Securities said that from 28 to 30, the cold wave will move eastward and southward, and the central and eastern regions will face a wide range of rain, snow and cooling weather, which will boost demand for thermal coal, and domestic coal prices will bottom out.