Core ideas:
Event: on November 15, the company agreed to grant restricted stock to the incentive target for the first time because the 2022 restricted stock grant conditions have been achieved. The number of restricted shares awarded is 1.365 million shares, with a total number of 153.The award price is 12.01yuan per share. We believe that the company's incentive to core employees through restricted stock will help to enhance the cohesion of the core team and the company's core competitiveness, strengthen the company's leading position in the bus industry, and help develop potential businesses such as welding tape and energy storage.
The position of the industry is stable, and the busbar business is growing steadily. As a leading bus manufacturer in China, the company's bus products have been used in a number of national key projects, such as the National Stadium (Bird's Nest), Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, Beijing Daxing International Airport, Shanghai Expo Park, Guangzhou Asian Games venues and so on. and exported to Asia, Oceania, South America, Africa, Europe and other more than 40 countries and regions. With the promotion of the intelligent upgrading and transformation project of the busbar workshop, the busbar manufacturing level has been continuously optimized, and the busbar business is expected to contribute to the company's sustained and stable performance.
Deeply bind customers, the development of welding tape business is accelerated. The company has been deeply ploughing the photovoltaic tape industry for many years, and after continuous accumulation of technology and resources, it already has a strong competitive advantage in the industry, downstream customers are deeply bound to Longji, Jingao, Jingke, Tianhe, REC and other leading enterprises, by binding downstream customers, under the background of sustained photovoltaic demand, the company's welding strip business is expected to continue to accelerate development.
The layout of energy storage business is expected to become a new growth pole. The company is currently actively laying out the energy storage business, the relevant production lines have been gradually completed, and continue to open up downstream customers, considering that the global energy storage installation is in the stage of rapid growth, the new installation is expected to double next year, so although the company started a little late, but through the active business layout is still expected to enjoy the dividend brought by the high prosperity of the industry.
Profit forecast: the bus business is growing steadily, the welding strip business is expected to gradually increase its share in the new technology iteration, and the energy storage business is expected to fully enjoy the development dividend of the industry. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 0.90 / 1.51 / 190 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to a PE of 48 / 29 / 23 times. First coverage, giving 2023 earnings 40 times PE valuation, target price of 38.7 yuan, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream customer development is not as expected, profit forecast and valuation judgment is not as expected