On November 28, a spokesman for the Securities Regulatory Commission answered a reporter's question on the capital market supporting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, saying that the Securities Regulatory Commission decided to adjust and optimize five measures in terms of equity financing. including: 1) resume mergers and acquisitions and supporting financing of listed real estate companies; 2) resume refinancing of listed real estate enterprises and real estate listed companies; 3) adjust and improve the overseas market listing policy of real estate enterprises. 4) give further play to the role of REITs in invigorating the stock assets of real estate enterprises; 5) give full play to the role of private equity funds.

In early trading on November 29th, Hong Kong stocks rose due to the good news. R & F Real Estate rose more than 18%, Baolong Real Estate rose more than 19%, Poly Real Estate rose more than 13%, Metro Development and Agile rose more than 10%, and China Vanke rose more than 11%.

Property management plate followed the rise of inner housing stocks, Sunac Services rose more than 26%, Shimao service rose more than 25%, Country Garden Services Holdings rose more than 17%, Kaisa beautiful, new city service rose more than 15%.

According to the expectation of market participantsFinancial real estate is expected to continue to lead the market at the end of the year, the "New year market" is expected to continue, and the upper and lower reaches of the real estate industry chain are also expected to benefit.

Ping an Securities said that the policy wind is accelerating change, it is recommended to actively grasp the real estate sector market. In addition, the policy frequently supports the Baojiao building, and the valuation and repair of building materials can be expected.

S & P also recently estimated that November's round of support measures will inject 1 trillion yuan of new liquidity into the real estate sector, much of which will be reserved for private developers. The recent introduction of policies is of great significance, which may lead to an inflection point in the real estate dilemma in the next 3-6 months, and will also strengthen the newly acquired market dominance of state-owned developers.

The specific analysis is as follows:

CICC: fundamental indicators or overall performance is sound in 2023, listed real estate enterprises are expected to continue to benefit from multiple dimensions.

CICC pointed out that the equity financing policy of the real estate industry has been tightened since 2010 and continued to increase in 2013 and 2016. Since then, the listing, refinancing and major asset restructuring of housing-related companies have basically stagnated.

On November 21, Yi Huiman, chairman of the Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that "support the implementation of the plan to improve the balance sheet of high-quality real estate enterprises", equity financing-related policies have a marginal adjustment tendency.After this policy optimization and adjustment, in addition to IPO, listed housing enterprises and housing-related enterprises equity financing regulations will be fully normalized.This policy adjustment plays a positive role in reducing the leverage of real estate enterprises.

CICC believes thatThe industry will continue the recovery trend of "policy landing-credit recovery-expected reversal-sales recovery", and the fundamental indicators or overall performance will be sound in 2023.

In addition, with policy support,Listed real estate enterprises in the real estate sector will present multi-level benefit logic:

1) High-quality enterprises can achieve a virtuous circle of improving their balance sheet and continuously increasing their shares under the conditions of the recovery of operating cash flow, abundant debt financing cash flow and supplementary equity financing cash flow.

2）Enterprises with infrastructure assets and REITs activation opportunities that meet the requirements

3）Some financially distressed enterprises with high asset quality and low debt complexityThere may be potential opportunities for mergers and acquisitions.

4）Hong Kong H-share structure listed real estate enterprisesRefinancing is consistent with domestic financing.Red chip structure inner room enterpriseIt is also expected to benefit indirectly.

Ping an Securities: the strength and breadth of the policy exceed market expectations, which is conducive to improving the balance sheet of real estate enterprises.

Ping an Securities believes that the strength and breadth of this policy exceed market expectations, and the funds raised by merger and reorganization will be used for stock housing-related projects, payment of transaction consideration, replenishment of working capital, debt repayment, and so on. The funds raised by refinancing can be used for real estate projects related to "Baojiao Building and protecting people's livelihood", as well as supplementary liquidity that meets the requirements of the refinancing policy of listed companies, which are conducive to alleviating the short-term financial pressure of real estate enterprises and improving their balance sheets.

The new policy also helps to improve the M & An enthusiasm of high-quality enterprises, acquire high-quality assets through refinancing on the basis of controllable liabilities, and at the same time supplement and expand capital to achieve rapid scale breakthroughs.

In addition, the CSRC announced the resumption of mergers and acquisitions of listed real estate enterprises and supporting financing, superimposed the previous financial 16 and other policies, intensive increase at the central level, on the one handHelp to improve market expectations and promote the valuation and repair of the building materials sectorOn the other hand, drive the real estate demand to repair gradually, especially under the "guaranteed delivery", the follow-up completion and repair can be expected.It is good for pipe, hardware and other post-cycle building materials enterprises.

In terms of individual stock investment, Ping an Securities recommends to pay attention to four main lines:

First,Small companies and large groups, listed housing enterprises relying on high-quality resources and expectations of merger and reorganization

Second,High-quality central state-owned enterprises that are expected to become bigger and stronger with the help of refinancingSuch as Poly Development, Investment Promotion Shekou, etc.

Third,Overvalued private enterprises with high debt ratio and expected to improve the company's cash flow.Such as Metro Holdings, Jindi Group, etc.

Fourth, local state-owned enterprises that actively support the bottom in the current round of land market and have financing to improve their capital situation.At the same time suggestPay attention to the opportunities of property management enterprises and industry chainSuch as Country Garden Services Holdings, Xincheng Yue Service, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun shares, Weixing New Materials and so on.

Guojin Securities: restore the equity financing of housing enterprises and housing-related enterprises, the parent company has housing-related assets and the head of the central state-owned enterprises may benefit the most

Guojin Securities pointed out that real estate enterprises are allowed to reorganize and list, issue shares or pay cash to buy housing-related assets, and supporting financing, this policy is most beneficial to the parent company's high-quality housing-related assets, such as China Jiaotong Real Estate, Chinese Enterprises, Huafa shares, Jianfa shares, first shares, Nanshan Holdings, etc., and the marginal income of real estate enterprises with low PB valuation and higher asset-liability ratio is greater.

The plate valuation will benefit from the overall improvement of the policy, the valuation of central state-owned enterprises will be repaired steadily, and the land reserves can be expanded through mergers and acquisitions, such as Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Investment Shekou, China Resources Land and so on.

Mixed ownership and high-quality private housing enterprises can also alleviate the financial pressure through equity financing and tide over the current cash flow dilemma, such as Metro Holdings, Midea Real Estate, Jindi Group and so on.

In addition, the main purpose of liberalizing equity financing is to "guarantee delivery" and prevent the current risk from spreading, which is conducive to the repair of market expectations as a whole.It also has obvious advantages for real estate post-cycle industries such as building materials, property management and so on.

S & P rating: real estate, will reach an inflection point in the next 3 to 6 months

S & P recently said it expected several rounds of support measures in November to inject Rmb1,000bn of new liquidity into the property sector, including the 250 billion yuan bond financing facility announced in early November. The Bank of China Ltd. Inter-Market Dealers Association, which launched the tool, did not specify the amount allocated to each developer, but it is estimated that a large portion of it will be reserved for private developers.

S & P believes that recent policies are significant and could lead to an inflection point in real estate woes in the next three to six months, as well as entrenching the newly acquired market dominance of state-owned developers.

In view of this, S & P rating continues to maintain expectations of an "L"-shaped recovery in China's real estate sector, which is likely to take place in the second half of 2023. Sales are expected to fall a further 5 per cent by 8 per cent in 2023, mainly due to a fall in house prices. Developers may maintain liquidity through price cuts and promotions, and some will give discounts to digest unsalable inventory. Under the effect of price reduction, housing sales should stabilize.