November 28, A-share power plate shock higher, Ganeng shares rose, Changyuan Electric Power, Huadian International, Guangdong Electric Power A, Huaneng International and so on rose.

Virtual power plant concept stock is also rapidly rising, Jinzhi science and technology limit, national energy daily up more than 14%, Canaan intelligence, far-light software, Jicheng electronics and so on.

On the news side, after the 25th session, the National Energy Administration solicited opinions on the basic rules of the Electric Power spot Market (draft for soliciting opinions) and measures for the Supervision of the spot Market of Electric Power (draft for soliciting opinions).

CITIC pointed out that this is the first framework document on the basic rules of the electricity spot market nationwide since the continuous promotion of several pilot provinces in 2017. The clarity of power spot trading rules will help to further promote the market-oriented discovery of electricity prices, and speed up China's power market reform.

Huachuang Securities pointed out that the release of the draft is expected to accelerate the construction of energy storage, power trading platform, virtual power plant, energy management platform and so on.

What is the main content of the document?

According to Huachuang Securities, the draft for soliciting opinions defines the short-term and medium-and long-term construction tasks of the power spot market, and determines the development direction of the power spot market.

Specifically, the main tasks of power spot market construction in the near future are put forward: to build inter-provincial, provincial / regional spot market, to establish and improve pre-day, intra-day and real-time markets.We will promote new energy to participate in the electricity market in a safe and orderly manner, and promote emerging market players such as energy storage, distributed generation, load aggregators, virtual power plants and new energy microgrids to participate in transactions.

At the same timeMain tasks of medium-and long-term constructionImprove the connection between the medium-and long-term market and the spot market; explore the trading of power transmission rights, power futures and derivatives; promote the gradual integration of provincial / regional markets, expand the scope of provincial / regional markets, and transition to a national unified electricity market system.

According to the research report of Shen Wan Hongyuan, the spot market of electric power in China has been put forward for a long time.

In the 2015 "implementation opinions on promoting the Construction of electricity Market", it is proposed to "gradually establish a market-oriented electricity balance mechanism based on medium-and long-term transactions and supplemented by spot transactions". China launched the first batch of spot power pilot projects in 2018, including eight regions, and then added a second batch of pilot projects in 2021.

Shen Wanhongyuan believes that the document issued this time puts forward the basic rules of the power spot market nationwide, which means that the spot market will soon be rolled out from a pilot project to an all-round way, and is an important guarantee for the establishment of a new power system with new energy as the main body. it is also an important milestone in power marketization. At the same time, the most important significance of this document is that the transmission mechanism of the construction cost, fuel cost and regulation cost of the whole power industry to the downstream is gradually smooth, and the industry space will be fully opened.

What are the effects?

Shen Wan Hongyuan said that it may have an impact on the following links:

First, the impact on traditional power sources.-- cost pressure is expected to be channelled. In the case of electricity price limit in medium-and long-term market-oriented transactions, the implementation of spot transactions will effectively transmit the cost pressure of traditional power sources such as thermal power.

Debang Securities said that the document proposes to explore the establishment of a market-oriented capacity compensation mechanism, and the revenue model of thermal power is expected to be diversified. With the increase in the proportion of new energy generation, the revenue mode of thermal power units in China may gradually change from electricity service to electricity service, capacity service and auxiliary service.

Second,Impact on new energy sourcesThere is no need to worry about lower electricity prices, green power trading is expected to accelerate.

Shen Wanhongyuan believes that there is no need to worry about a sharp reduction in new energy electricity prices after the release of this document: 1) first of all, the document proposes to "promote new energy to participate in the electricity market in a safe and orderly manner and link up with existing new energy security policies." it means that new energy participation in the spot market will be moderate.

2) in addition, the gradual expansion of the scale of new energy participation in spot is an inevitable trend, but it needs to be used in conjunction with green power trading market and carbon trading market. This document is not the only factor that determines the electricity price of new energy. And with the introduction of this document, it is expected that the green power trading and carbon trading market is expected to accelerate.

Third,Impact on energy storage-- the sources of income and business patterns will be greatly rich.

It believes that energy storage is one of the most beneficial directions of the spot market, and the reasons include: 1) the peak-valley spread of electricity price is expected to further open and directly increase the rate of return of energy storage; 2) energy storage also has the ability to guarantee supply in an emergency. will also be one of the beneficiaries of the market-oriented capacity mechanism. 3) Energy storage has obvious advantages in participating in FM auxiliary services, which will further realize the market pricing of FM auxiliary services, give full play to the advantages of energy storage and frequency modulation, and improve the rate of return of energy storage.

FourthImpact on power grid-- the demand for the construction of power grid supporting facilities is extremely urgent. 1) the construction of power spot market requires high-quality metering equipment, which is expected to greatly increase the demand for equipment such as intelligent watt-hour meter, gate meter and so on. 2) the inter-provincial and inter-regional spot market is expected to continue to promote, the national unified power market will be gradually established, and the national resources will be mobilized to achieve carbon neutralization through the price mechanism, while opening up the space for new energy construction, the demand for UHV, UHV and other main grid construction is also extremely urgent.

Which subdivisions are worth paying attention to?

Huachuang Securities pointed out that the release of the draft is expected to accelerate the construction of energy storage, power trading platform, virtual power plant, energy management platform and so on.

CITIC said that the release of the basic rules of the Electric Power spot Market (draft for soliciting opinions) will further promote the construction of a unified electricity market across the country. Under the background of "double carbon", the certainty of the medium-and long-term prosperity of electric power IT is high, and attention will be paid to the two main investment lines of new power system and power market reform.

The former, such as power prediction of new energy generation on the power side, multi-energy complementary collaborative optimization, distributed smart grid on the grid side, charging piles, distributed power sources, construction and operation of virtual power plants brought by electrification on the load side, as well as the opportunities of power informatization, transaction-aided decision-making, energy storage and integrated energy services in the whole industry chain.

In the field of power marketization, the construction of new energy and the spot market of electric power further improve the fluctuation range of electricity price, and open up the profit space of multiple subjects while optimizing the allocation of market resources. With the gradual maturity of the spot electricity market, the price difference of electricity price fluctuation is expected to further increase, and thermal power enterprises will change from "scrambling for electricity" to "profit"; new energy enterprises will improve the efficiency of consumption and the income of electricity consumption by improving the accuracy of power forecasting and participating in market-oriented transactions; electricity sales companies will change from "earning price differences" to "doing services", managing users' load curves and optimizing electricity consumption behavior. New business forms such as energy storage and virtual power plants will also open up more profitable space.

According to the data of the State Grid, the peak cutting and valley filling of the power system can be realized through thermal power plants, which requires an investment of 400 billion to meet 5% of the peak load, while through virtual power plants, the investment in construction, operation and incentives is only 50-60 billion yuan. Debang Securities pointed out that for virtual power plants, at present, China is mainly invitation-based, the source of income is the subsidy income obtained by participating in demand-side response, and the profit model is relatively simple. By encouraging load aggregators and virtual power plants to participate in power spot transactions, the operation mode of virtual power plants will be gradually promoted to change from invitation type to market type. Virtual power plant operators can gradually gain revenue by participating in the electric energy market, auxiliary service market and capacity market, and the profit model is more diversified.