Main points of investment:
With the opening of fuel oil import channels and the commissioning of self-owned hydrogen devices, the company has essentially improved the shortage of raw materials, greatly increased the capacity utilization of heavy aromatics and environmentally friendly aromatic oil units, and boomed on top of traditional business. the company's profitability has increased significantly. Moreover, the company's products have also opened up a new situation in the application of high-value fields such as lithium anode materials.
The relief of the company's shortage of raw materials led to a reversal of the predicament.
The company has been ploughing the fuel oil deep processing industry for a long time, with an annual production capacity of 400000 tons of heavy aromatic hydrocarbons and 400000 tons of environmentally friendly aromatic oil. the downstream rubber, asphalt and lubricating oil industries have a strong demand, while the integration of upstream refineries leads to a shortage of domestic fuel oil supply. the hydrogen supply in the superimposed plant is unstable, and the company's previous production capacity is relatively low.
With the commissioning of 12000 self-owned hydrogen production units per hour this year, and the gradual opening of overseas raw material import channels, the problem of raw material supply has been basically solved, the company has also ushered in a reversal of difficulties, and the capacity utilization and profitability have improved rapidly.
Tax audit leads to high profit of white oil business.
The company's annual output of 400000 tons of environmentally friendly aromatic oil hydrogenation unit can produce 400000 tons of industrial white oil. in the past two years, with the tax inspection of the refined oil industry becoming more stringent, most refining enterprises in Shandong and other places have reduced their negative or stopped production. In particular, the domestic white oil production in 2022 dropped by nearly 40% year on year, and the company's white oil profit level increased significantly.
High-value utilization of aromatic oil opens up growth space
In order to improve the high-value utilization of aromatic oil, the company has arranged the production capacity of 100000 tons of food / pharmaceutical grade white oil and 80, 000 tons of light white oil by hydrofining industrial white oil. at the same time, the heavy aromatics plant is used to produce upstream needle coke slurry for lithium electrode. and in the pitch-based carbon fiber and other fields are expected to continue to open the growth limit.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's income in 2022-24 will be 37.4 pound 41.4 / 4.61 billion yuan, the corresponding growth rate will be 157%, 11%, 2.9% and 420 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding growth rate will be 182%, 145%, 45%, 2.41 yuan per share and 116%, respectively, respectively. In view of the improvement of the company's capacity utilization, the high profits of the main industry and the continuous extension to the high-end field, with reference to the comparable company's valuation, we give the company 23 years 15 times PE, with a target price of 24.9 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: large fluctuations in product prices, production safety risks, and projects under construction are not as expected.
