CITIC: currently in the policy-driven first half, increase the position

In December, it is expected that a new steady state of normalized prevention and control will be gradually formed in the process of optimization of the "New 20 articles", and a new steady state of economic weakness recovery will also be gradually formed in the process of implementing stable growth policies such as the "16 articles" of real estate, and the new steady state will gradually approach, which will consolidate the foundation for medium-term economic repair; the inflection point of US dollar interest rate increase will be established, and domestic monetary policy will concentrate efforts to provide support for the repair of A-share valuation.

The current market characteristics also show that the trend of comprehensive repair of A-shares in the medium term is highly clear, but the pace of short-term repair has slowed down, and it is currently in the first half of policy-driven, so it is suggested to increase the position. balanced allocation of accurate prevention and control, real estate industry chain, global liquidity inflection point three main lines.

Haitong: the trend of A-shares is improving, and the second wave of gains of the year is slowly unfolding.

The valuation level of ① A shares fluctuates periodically, and the current indicators such as PE/PB, stock-debt yield ratio and risk premium ratio are all at the bottom of the cycle.

② A shares have a low every 3-4 years, behind which is the cycle of the economic cycle, the current economy is moving towards the early stage of recovery, A-share trend is improving.

The stable growth policy of ③ continues to increase, and the second wave of gains slowly unfolds during the year, giving priority to high economic growth, such as the digital economy + new energy.

CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD: there is no need for pessimism, short-term style or rotation in the direction of "steady growth"

The central bank cut reserve requirements to help "stabilize growth", ironing liquidity pressures to support credit, and follow-up price-based tools under "weak reality" may also be worth looking forward to.

For the stock market, the substantive significance of this cut may be relatively limited, but at least investors can see the government's determination to "stabilize the economic market" under the "weak reality" that the path of economic endogenous demand recovery is still unclear.There should still be expectations for the follow-up market, and there is no need to turn pessimistic.

Real estate supply side relief policy continues to implement, accurately solve the "Baojiaolou" link pain point, some problems of real estate enterprise credit risk disposal and clearance may be nearing the end. "Baojiaolou" and "financing support for real estate enterprises" are the core behind this series of policies, while real estate sales are still low and stabilizing, and subsequent demand-side policies to help real estate sales improve expectations may also be expected. After the domestic economic growth returns to the potential growth path, the recovery of residents' medium-and long-term confidence will also be conducive to the recovery of the real estate market.

At the end of the year, the demand for stable growth is enhanced, and the style may rotate to the relevant plates in the stable growth chain.

The special bonds of some provinces and cities have been approved in advance, and the central bank has lowered the reserve requirements again. Real estate financing support policies have been introduced frequently, and the market has rectified the pessimistic expectation of "uninsured project" in the early stage.

With the introduction of the "Sixteen principles of Finance", large state-owned banks responded to the positive credit of more than one trillion yuan, and high-quality housing enterprises were the first to benefit; superimposed marginal easing of liquidity, promoting the fundamentals of a stable growth chain, especially the pessimistic expected repair of bank real estate.

Reviewing the similar economic fundamentals in 2011-2012, 2014-2015, 2018 and 2021, the overall fourth quarter is characterized by the obvious dominance of counter-cyclical assets. In terms of the average monthly income performance in the fourth quarter, the stable sector (real estate bank public transportation) > TMT (media communications electronics) > mid-stream manufacturing and optional consumption.

Corresponding to the performance of the industry this year, also in the context of uncertain economic expectations and the basic response of the high-prosperity track boom expectations in that year, the short-term style may rotate in the direction of "steady growth". From the perspective of long-term policy orientation, high-level science and technology may become the main line of medium-and long-term investment.

Guotai Junan Securities: adjustment is a layout opportunity, and stocks increase their positions every time they fall.

The current round of economic repair process will be tortuous, and even there will be greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. However, the change in policy attitude means that the stock market is no longer muddy, and the market "looking for opportunities" around domestic demand is expected to continue to emerge, while under the expected improvement and weak fundamentals, it is difficult to see an overnight pull-up market. it is more likely to evolve upward in shocks and repetitions. On the contrary, adjustment is a layout opportunity, and stocks increase their positions every time they fall.

In the face of the decline of medium-term uncertainty and the rise of short-term uncertainty, an important change in investment thinking is to shift from the high growth of EPS to the growth of G. Pay attention to two main lines: the repair of traditional production chain and the trend opportunity of science and technology manufacturing.

China International Capital Corporation: pay attention to the policy orientation towards the end of the year, and the growth plate still needs to be observed.

The market already has more bottom characteristics in the early stage, and the key to the expected improvement lies in the repair of fundamentals. we reiterate our neutral and positive view on the A-share market in the next 12 months, approaching the end of the year. pay attention to the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic work Conference that may be held near December, and pay attention to the follow-up policy orientation at a time when the economy is still facing internal and external challenges.

In terms of allocation, it is more important to follow the pace of marginal policy changes in the short term, and it is more important to grasp the main line of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading according to the degree of prosperity and China's economic growth structure in the medium term.

In the allocation, it is still mainly in the areas of low valuation, low correlation with the macro or the degree of prosperity and policy support. At present, the overall expectation of the growth sector is not low, the position is still relatively heavy, and systematic allocation opportunities may need to be observed to grasp structural opportunities from the bottom up. The shift from strategic style to growth opportunities needs to pay attention to the progress of overseas inflation and China's steady growth. After the disclosure of the results of the three quarterly reports, pay attention to the follow-up repair of the performance of A-share listed companies.

GF Securities Co., LTD.: Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, A shares are in a repair market

This round of "compound policy bottom" framework has been basically satisfied, Hong Kong stocks bull market, A-share repair market. The "bottom of compound policy" is an important framework for this round of bear-bull switching.

Hong Kong stocks have more odds and flexibility advantages, pay attention to the strategic bottom, Hong Kong stocks bull market three stages, the first stage is dominated by sovereign risk premium downward, the goal has been achieved, short-term volatility increasedHong Kong stock investment three arrows: stable growth policy plus epidemic prevention policy optimization + overseas liquidity suppression and relaxation.

A-share repair city: industry configuration: at this stage, "development to promote security" as the policy clue:

1. Increase the policy of "steady growth" (moderate credit sinking of real estate leading stocks / medical equipment / consumer building materials)

2. Repair opportunities under the trend of epidemic prevention and control optimization (catering supply chain / beer / drugstore / specific drugs)

3. Overseas liquidity easing (Internet platform economy).

Theme investment "national security" (domestic software, etc.), state-owned enterprise reform & low-carbon transformation (construction, etc.).

China Merchants: the A-share performance in the fourth quarter may still be under pressure, and it is expected to enter the weak recovery channel in 2023.

Recently, the central bank announced a reserve cut, confirming once again that the current tone of monetary policy has not changed significantly, giving a boost to short-term market sentiment. Industrial profits fluctuated at the bottom in October, A-share performance in the fourth quarter may still be under pressure, and 2023 is expected to enter a weak recovery channel. Taking into account the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic work Conference near the end of the year, as well as the guidance of a series of recent financing support policies, the probability of increasing the policy of stabilizing growth has been further increased.

In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to stable real estate, medical care, computers, and equipment manufacturing that benefit from improved liquidity and prosperity, and it is still recommended to continue the layout of the "five Golden Flowers in the New era" in the medium and long term.

Societe Generale Securities: comply with the trend and pay short-term attention to the low valuation repair opportunities of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises

Recently, the market has fallen into shock again, the core of which is the repetition of risk appetite. But there is no need to worry too much about systemic risks in the market:

1) the epidemic in April had a significant impact on the market, the core reason was that it seriously blocked the domestic supply chain and dragged down the economy. The impact of the current epidemic on the supply chain and economy is far less than that at that time, and the epidemic prevention policy has been further optimized. The meeting of the standing Committee of the political Bureau on November 10 clearly called for improving the scientific and accurate nature of prevention and control and reducing the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.

2) the redemption of partial debt products has limited impact on the stock market. And although interest rates have risen, there is still plenty of money in the market.

3) the external shock is also weakening. The lower-than-expected CPI in the United States in October led to the decline of US debt interest rates and the dollar index, and the return of foreign investment. Since November 11, the northward capital of Land and Stock Exchange has flowed 54.4 billion.

4) from the perspective of valuation and equity risk premium, the current market is still in the bottom area of high performance-to-price ratio. As of November 25, PE valuations of 12.2 times for the Shanghai Composite Index and 38.2 times for the gem index are still at historic lows, while equity risk premiums are at historic highs of 77.9% and 96.5% respectively since 2010.

In line with the trend, pay attention to the low valuation repair opportunities of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the short term. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the three main lines of "trusting military doctors", "new half army" and "science and technology creation".

Anxin Securities: the market is in the stage of gaining momentum, and winter and spring are worth looking forward to.

December is approaching, the follow-up Politburo meeting and the Central Economic work Conference are important policy observation windows, and the short-term market environment is conducive to the valuation and repair of the overall market value. At present, the market is in the stage of gaining momentum, and if the domestic epidemic situation can be effectively controlled, fundamental expectations will be reversed, and the small spring in winter is worth looking forward to.

Short-term overdistribution industry: real estate (chain); medicine; bank, copper and gold; auto parts; domestic substitution represented by CNC machine tools and cutting tools, ultrasonic welding, high-power bearings; digital economy represented by computer (Xinchuang); green power industry chain represented by energy storage. Theme investment: focus on state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.

Huaxi Securities: a shares are still in the repair market, and the plate rotates quickly.

The construction of the "arc bottom" is characterized by the rapid rotation of the plate. A-share market is still in the repair market, but the reversal of economic fundamentals is difficult to achieve overnight. Under the influence of repeated epidemic and bond market fluctuations, market sentiment is disturbed, and the value and growth market appear "seesaw effect".

Looking ahead, it is unlikely that there will be a "one-sided" phenomenon similar to the "undervalued blue chip" market at the end of 2014. At present, there is no significant easing in micro-funds in the market, the entry of incremental funds such as foreign capital and public funds into the market is limited, and the position of private equity has also fallen back to the low level in the past three years.

Under the background of stock game, A shares will show the characteristics of rapid rotation of plates and styles. After a short-term sharp rebound in the value sector, it is still recommended to give priority to balanced allocation.

In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to three main lines of investment: 1) those who benefit from the marginal adjustment of policies, such as "real estate"; 2) growing industries with high prosperity, such as "new energy"; and 3) those related to "safety and development". Such as "Xinchuang, self-controllable, traditional Chinese medicine" and so on.