Hot news

• This week focuses on the Federal Reserve's economic beige book, Powell's speech looking for more policy path signals.

This week will usher in the release of the Federal Reserve's economic beige book, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the US economic outlook and the job market (02:30 Beijing time on Thursday), and speeches by a number of Fed officials. will look for more information on the scale of the Fed's rate hike.

October PCE data, the Fed's preferred indicator of inflation, will be released on Thursday, one of the most important inflation reports ahead of the December interest rate meeting. Friday's November non-farm report, which will also provide clues to the Fed's next actions, will also provide clues to the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market, which is an important driving force for the Fed's insistence on aggressive interest rate hikes.

• Us stocks have risen recently, but analysts say don't be overly optimistic

Most officials believe the Fed should slow the pace of raising interest rates, according to the minutes of the Fed's November meeting. Before the Fed holds its last meeting of the year on December 13-14, investors will keep a close eye on economic data for clues to what policymakers are thinking.

Stephane Monier, an investment analyst, said, "the Fed needs to continue to raise interest rates reasonably to 5.25%, so there will be some rate increases in the future, so the market is a little too optimistic at the moment." A small recession is expected in the US in 2023, but this will be negligible compared with the crises of 2008 and 2009. At the same time, strategists at Barclays, led by Emmanuel Cau, said the recent stock market rally was mainly due to short covering by macro hedge funds and CTA, and warned that the trend might not last into the New year.

• Goldman Sachs Group: the "bear market" of global stocks will continue next year until these three bottoming signals appear.

Goldman Sachs Group said in the report that the bear market that hit global stock markets in 2022 is likely to continue into next year, and investors are about to enter the "hope" phase of the decline cycle-but this "hope" phase does not mean that the stock market has reached the bottom. Goldman Sachs Group proposed that to prove that the stock market bottomed out, we still need to wait for three key bottoming signals to appear: 1. A lower valuation consistent with the outcome of the recession; 2. The deteriorating momentum of economic growth has reached a low ebb. Interest rates have peaked. At present, it is expected that there is still some way to go before these three signals appear.

• Bank of America: bullish on China market! Us stocks may be sorted out sideways in 2023

The US federal funds rate is expected to peak at 5.25 per cent next year and the Fed may cut rates in December, according to BofA strategists. "U.S. stocks may move sideways in 2023, and the S & P 500 is expected to close at 4000 by the end of next year," the strategist wrote in the report. Risk assets will continue to be bearish in the first half of the year and may turn bullish in the second half of the year. The bank said that the Chinese stock market has a high 'excess savings' and is still in the bullish stage against the trend. "

• In the shadow of high inflation, the "Black five" online consumption in the United States has set a record.

Adobe Inc Analytics, a data analysis company, estimates that US "Black Friday" online sales reached a record $9.12 billion, up 2.3 per cent from a year earlier and better than the agency's previous forecast of a 1 per cent rise, mainly benefiting from big discounts from retailers. Earlier, the media pointed out that the shopping atmosphere in the first half of Black Friday this year was not as good as in previous years, and the flow of people going to shopping malls and buying discounted goods was less than in previous years. Us consumers seem to be making more use of mobile phones to shop this year, with 48 per cent of Black Friday online shopping done through mobile phones, according to Adobe Inc Analytics. Adobe Inc Analytics estimates that sales of "Cyber Monday" will be $11.2 billion.

• Us business activity contracted for the fifth month in a row

U. S. business activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in November because of weak demand. The S & P global composite purchasing managers' index fell below 50 to 46.3 in November, indicating a contraction in business activity. This month, the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell nearly 3 points to 47.6. Excluding the first few months after the outbreak, both production and order indices fell the most since 2009. Experts worry that the US economy will fall further into a possible recession.

• Bird flu continues to rage in the United States, and 1.8 million chickens will be slaughtered on a farm.

Agricultural officials in Nebraska say all 1.8 million chickens on a local farm will be slaughtered after the discovery of bird flu. This is a sign that the bird flu epidemic, which has led to the slaughter of more than 50 million birds in the United States, continues to spread. The USDA says this year's bird flu epidemic has led to the slaughter of more than 52.3 million birds in 46 states, mainly commercial farm chickens and turkeys. A total of 6.8 million birds have been affected on 13 farms in Nebraska, second only to Iowa, where 15.5 million birds have been affected.

• Sanctions against Russian oil come as the United States resumes crude oil production in Venezuela

The Venezuelan government of Maduro said it reached a broad agreement with the Venezuelan opposition on the 26th, breaking the political deadlock. The United States also responded by allowing major US oil producers to restart operations in Venezuela. Ali Moshiri, a former executive of Chevron Corp, had previously said Venezuela could reach its target of producing 1.5 million barrels of oil a day within two years if the White House relaxed sanctions and Chevron Corp and other oil companies were able to produce freely.

Review of US stocks

• Us stocks closed mixed on "Black Friday"

Last Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, U. S. stocks closed three hours early. The Dow is up 0.45%, the S & P is down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq is down 0.52%. Last week, the Dow was up 1.78%, the s & p 500 was up 1.53%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.72%.

Large technology stocks fell collectively, with Netflix Inc down 2.04%, Apple Inc down 1.96% and Alphabet Inc-CL C down 1.02%. Chip stocks fell, with AMD, NVIDIA Corp, Qualcomm Inc and Intel Corp all down more than 1 per cent.

The retail sector rose, with Nordstrom up 2.03% and Macy's up 0.98%.

Hot Chinese stocks generally fell, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3.28%. It fell 5.96% last week to end its three-week rally. Bilibili Inc. fell by more than 7%, JD.com by more than 5%, Wei Xiaoli and BABA by more than 3%.

• Market research agency: Tesla, Inc. delivered more than 190000 vehicles worldwide in September, setting a new delivery record again.

According to a recent report released by market research agency Adamas Intelligence$Tesla (TSLA.US)$In September this year, it is estimated that 190255 vehicles will be delivered worldwide, setting another new delivery record. In terms of battery capacity, Tesla, Inc. delivered 13.9GWh electricity worldwide in September this year, with an average of 73kWh per car. According to the report, Tesla, Inc. delivered a total of 1.848 million pure electric vehicles worldwide from January 2021 to September 2022, deploying 132.9GWh batteries, with an average of about 71.9kWh per vehicle.

• Tesla, Inc. recalled nearly 81000 electric vehicles in China because of software and seat belt problems.

Due to software and seat belt problems$Tesla (TSLA.US)$A total of nearly 81000 electric vehicles have been recalled in China, exceeding the usual deliveries at its Shanghai plant in any January.

Tesla, Inc. will recall 70434 imported Model S, Model X and Model 3 electric vehicles, as well as 10127 domestic Model 3 electric vehicles, the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration said in an announcement on Friday. In addition, Tesla, Inc. called on affected Model 3 owners to contact the service center for maintenance as soon as the recall began, and called on users to "drive their vehicles carefully".

• Musk: if Twitter APP is removed by Alphabet Inc-CL C and Apple Inc, I will develop my own smartphone

Musk said on Twitter that if Alphabet Inc-CL C and Apple Inc remove the Twitter app from APP Store, he will produce an alternative smartphone. "I certainly hope that won't happen, but if I have no choice, I will produce a backup phone. "

• Walmart Inc became the top five winners in black this year.

As of Friday morning, when American consumers searched the Internet for Black Friday discounts, according to advertising technology company Captify$Walmart (WMT.US)$Occupied the dominant position. Captify tracks more than 1 billion searches a day from websites around the world. The search volume of Walmart Inc's Black Friday discount soared 386% from the same period last year, surpassing the competitors.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$. Amazon.Com Inc ranked first in a Captify survey of retailers' Black Friday discount search last year and was the retailer with the largest number of consumer searches. This year, Amazon.Com Inc, the world's largest e-commerce company, ranks fourth, behind$Target (TGT.US)$和$Kohl's Corp (KSS.US)$。

• Is the local tycoon in the Middle East interested in taking the offer? Manchester United shares for sale rose more than 60% last week

After the news that Manchester United might be sold$Manchester United (MANU.US)$The share price began to soar, rising 14.66% on Tuesday, 25.84% on Wednesday and 12.82% on Friday.

Saudi Sports Minister Prince Al Faisal said in an interview with the media that he hopes Saudi investors will win Premiership giants Manchester United and Liverpool. "if any Saudi private sector is involved, we will certainly support it because we know it will have a positive impact on sports in Saudi Arabia," he said. Last year the Saudi sovereign wealth fund bought Newcastle in the Premier League. The Saudi government official said that the Premier League is the best football league in the world and the most watched game, and there are many loyal fans of the two teams in the kingdom, so the acquisition would be good for everyone.

• Us FTC may initiate antitrust lawsuit, Activision Blizzard falls by 4%

Many investors had hoped that Microsoft Corp's good reputation in the U.S. Congress would help FTC approve$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Acquisition$Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US)$But there were media reports on Wednesday that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) might file an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal. Aaron Glick, an M & An arbitrage expert at Cowen & Co, says the market now expects the chances of a successful deal to be about 40 per cent.

Activision Blizzard fell 4.07% on Friday to close at $73.47 a share. Previously, Microsoft Corp's offer was $95 per share, with a total price of $69 billion.

• The identification of drivers of Uber and other ride-sharing companies in the United States still needs final confirmation.

Monday, local time, is the last day for public comment on the Labor Department's proposed rules on whether odd workers are employees or independent contractors under the Fair Labor Standards Act. Industry insiders in the country believe that classifying odd workers as employees may have a chilling effect on the gig economy and will have a great impact.$Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$、$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$和$Fiverr International (FVRR.US)$The operation mode and current situation of the company, etc. The Fair Labor Standards Act was passed by the United States Congress in 1938. The Act provides for minimum wage, maximum working hours, overtime pay and child labour protection. The bill has been amended many times and applied to most employees.

• Airbus is reported to have delayed the delivery of some aircraft in 2023.

Three people in the industry said$AIRBUS SE (EADSY.US)$The company is preparing to further postpone the planned delivery of some medium-range aircraft in 2023. Due to supply chain and labor problems, it is working to meet its delivery target for 2022. People familiar with the matter added that double the speed had been taken because the supply of engines and other parts and labour needed for the production of new aircraft remained uncertain. At least one engine manufacturer is under pressure to move more engines from supporting aircraft production to existing customer spare parts libraries.

• NIO Inc. and Li Bin said that the problem of slow capacity climbing is being solved and the MPV model will not be launched in the near future.

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$In response to the question of why the company's production capacity has been frequently hit by outbreaks and supply chain shortages, CEO Li Bin said on November 27: NIO Inc. 's strategy is to use richer models to meet different market needs, customers make personalized choices for models, and NIO Inc. is responsible for order-to-order production. This strategy conflicts with the current complex supply chain situation, but also determines that NIO Inc. will not focus on the first phase of the new car delivery, impact monthly sales data. Li Bin also said that NIO Inc. has sent dozens of employees to help partners solve the problem of capacity climbing. Prior to this, NIO Inc. was widely questioned by the outside world because of his relatively slow capacity climbing. In addition, despite the demand put forward by many users, NIO Inc. has no plans to produce MPV for a long time in the future, and NIO Inc. will put the MPV model in a later schedule.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Beishui sold more than HK $600 million for Tencent and nearly HK $300 million for Country Garden Services Holdings.

On Friday, southbound funds bought a net HK $2.315 billion. TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG, China Mobile Limited and Country Garden Services Holdings received a net purchase of HK $1.485 billion, HK $489 million and HK $295 million respectively. Tencent ranks first in net sales, with a value of HK $665 million.

Focus today

Key words:Dallas Fed Business activity Index, Pinduoduo released results, 360 DigiTech Inc-S announced the winning results.

On Monday, investors can follow the Dallas Fed Business activity Index.The previous value of the data is below zero, which to some extent means that the US economy is in a recession range, and the recession tends to deepen further.

Financial reportFocus on the pre-market release of US stocks on November 28, Eastern time.$Pinduoduo (PDD.US)$Financial report.

Guojin Securities estimates that Pinduoduo Q3's income is 30.9 billion, up 44% from the same period last year, and Q3's Non-GAAP profit margin is about 23%. The bank said that Pinduoduo's cost-effective platform features attract more businesses and consumers in a weak consumer environment.

In addition$HWORLD-S (01179.HK)$、$ALI HEALTH (00241.HK)$The financial report will be released on the same day.

In terms of new sharesFinancial science and technology platform$360 DIGITECH-S (03660.HK)$Announce the winning result. The company previously announced that Hong Kong shares were subscribed for 1.38 million shares on the retail side, which was 2.47 times oversubscribed.

Niuniu morning reading:

We must think independently and put aside the herd mentality.

-- Jim Rogers