The Institute of International Finance (IIF) pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could become "permanent"的War, the global economy in 2023 will be as weak as it was in 2009 after the financial crisis.

Global economic growth is expected to slow to 1.2 per cent next year, IIF economists Robin Brooks and Jonathan Fortun wrote in a report on Thursday. Adjusted for the base effect, this is as weak as in 2009.

It is worth mentioning that Brooks was one of the first people to predict the parity of the euro against the dollar earlier this year, and he accurately predicted the rebound of the Brazilian real before most people, causing a sensation in Twitter circles.

The report points out that the future impact on the global economy mainly depends on the development trajectory of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which is expected to last until 2024:

From a regional perspective, the global economic slowdown is mainly led by Europe, which is most affected by the conflict, and the euro zone economy is expected to contract by 2% next year as consumer and business confidence plummets.

As for the US, GDP growth is expected to be 1 per cent next year.

Latin American economies are expected to grow more strongly, at 1.2 per cent, mainly because Latin American commodity exporters continue to benefit from high food and energy prices.

Next year, the biggest single driver of the global economy will be China.