"Hong Kong stocks have been testing their bottom line," a saying that has often been said in the past two years. But where is the "bottom line"? No one can tell.

Just from most of the voices in the market, it seems that Hong Kong stocks have nothing to fall, almost to the point where there is "gold" everywhere.

Hong Kong stocks have rebounded strongly since November, and Bao Chengchao, chief strategist at Cheung Kong Securities, analyzed the reasons in a roadshow on November 21.

Bao Chengchao said that before November, the overall adjustment of Hong Kong stocks was relatively obvious, and to sum up, it was affected byThe triple suppression of profit side, valuation side and risk appetite.

The reason for the rebound in November is not only the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, but also expectations of overseas liquidity are slowly starting to tighten from a rapid tightening to a slow release.

Moreover, after the 20th CPC National Congress, manufacturing investment has been driven, and the margin of real estate policy has also been relaxed, which has led to some related industries in Hong Kong stocks and the mainland.

Looking to the future, Bao Chengchao's judgment on Hong Kong stocks is still relatively positive.

At present, in addition to the gradual stabilization and recovery of the Hong Kong stock Internet, Bao Chengchao is also optimistic about the optional consumption of the Hong Kong stock market, such as domestic sports brand leaders, World Cup-related beer, offline scene recovery-related tourism and so on.

We refined his main points into 16:00 and shared them with you.

1. The main reason for the relatively large profit adjustment of Hong Kong stocks is that the domestic economy is relatively weak.

On the one hand, the repeated epidemic has brought some impact, on the other hand, due to the relatively high level of overall inflation this year, especially the prices of raw materials and oil, the manufacturing industry has suffered some damage on the cost side and profit side.

This is similar to the profit status of A-shares.

2, liquidity of this piece of Hong Kong stocks may be slightly different from A shares.

Before November, Hong Kong stocks were weaker than A shares, mainly because of liquidity.

Because most of the money in the Hong Kong stock market comes from overseas, and a lot of overseas money is linked to the liquidity of the Federal Reserve.

We can see that most emerging markets this year have been affected by higher-than-expected interest rate hikes in the United States, so there have been more adjustments.

3, in terms of risk preference, one is the overall constraints on the Internet platform economy, and the other is the conflict between China and the United States, which more or less affects the risk preference of Hong Kong stocks.

4. When we look at the problem in stages, there is a need to distinguish it.

Since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks in January and February has been good, stronger than A shares. The inflection point of the market occurred in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which led to a very flexible decline in global stocks.

Then came the repetition of the domestic epidemic, and there was a wave of adjustment in the market.

During that time, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, were hit by both the profit side and the valuation side brought about by the Fed's continued higher-than-expected interest rate increases.

The transition in August was stimulated by steady domestic growth and the marginal easing of real estate policy, and then it was also suppressed by both the profit side and the valuation side in September and October.

5, in terms of structure, there were more adjustments in medicine, semiconductors, cars and so on in the third quarter before November.

With the gradual deregulation of epidemic control in the Hong Kong market, some consumer services begin to recover slowly, reflecting some excess returns.

After June and November, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks can see the impact of a rebound in risk appetite.

Another reason comes from overseas, as expectations of overseas liquidity are slowly starting to tighten from a rapid tightening to a slow release.

Recently, the CPI data disclosed in the United States is also the first time that the overall CPI data is lower than expected. This slows down the impact of higher interest rates on emerging markets, which is why some changes were seen in November.

Of course, the optimization of domestic prevention and control, the driving force of investment in the manufacturing industry, and the marginal relaxation of some real estate policies have all led to some industries related to the mainland of Hong Kong stocks, such as the real estate industry chain. you can gradually see a very obvious resilience.

7, after 2015, the Internet track has entered a state of stock economy, and at this time, the favorable impact of the continuous concentration of competition brought about by the platform began to emerge. People are also beginning to see the value of leading companies brought about by the borderless expansion of the Internet.

After 2016 and 2017, there has been a marked improvement in the allocation of southward funds and insurance funds.

In fact, before 2016, the valuations of several leading companies in Hong Kong stocks have been about ten times, and not much has changed all the year round.

After 2016 and 2017, there was a double rise in profits and valuations at the valuation level. then, these companies were given the label of scarce assets, and slowly began to give these head companies a certain premium, called a deterministic premium.

8. The leading Internet company in Hong Kong stocks has actually been a "three killers" since 2021.

firstIt is the adjustment of industrial policy.

The second is increased liquidity overseas.With the rise of inflation, the allocation of overseas investors on the Internet giants in Hong Kong stocks has declined significantly.

The third is the domestic economic pressure.As a result, the profit end has been affected more or less.

As a result, starting from 2021, the Internet leading companies of Hong Kong stocks have made more adjustments in their share prices, including the allocation of funds.

9. Since the second quarter of this year, we have seen some marginal changes at some levels, that is,Encourage development in the process of standardization.

Therefore, from the performance of stock prices and the performance of the Internet industry of Hong Kong stocks, we can see the stabilization and rebound, as well as the relatively obvious elastic changes in the near future.

10. The investment logic of Hong Kong stock consumption can be divided into two categories.

The first category is related to pure emerging industries, that is, the permeability of the whole industry is constantly going up, and there are someAn opportunity for pure growthLike sports brands.

The second type of opportunity comes from the relatively clear competition pattern of the industry itself.

For example, takeout, Internet games, mineral water and so on, we can see that the market share of the leading companies and the overall competition pattern of the industry are all in a state of steady growth, and the giants in the industry are relatively clear.The logic of investment is more valuable.

11, the optional consumption of the Hong Kong stock market is also more concerned by the market, such as sports brands, national trend consumption and so on.

Some time ago, some notices on the development planning of the outdoor sports industry were issued, which also provided a policy guarantee for the next step of industrial development. For example, some of the Hong Kong stock marketDomestic sports brand companyYou can pay attention.

Including the recent opening of the World Cup, investment opportunities related to the World Cup also have some optional targets for consumption, such asBeerWait, you can also focus on it.

And because of the optimization of prevention and control policies, there are some policy support for offline consumption, includingTravelThere are also some relevant regulations, which are conducive to the improvement of consumer confidence.

12. Our judgment on Hong Kong stocks in the future is still relatively positive.

If the three factors (profit end, valuation end, risk preference) are compared to springs, all three springs have been pressed to a very low position in the past two years or so.

13. We think there will be some changes in the general direction next year.

First, it can be seen from the recent policyIn the future, the economy, policy, and credit will no longer get worse, so the marginal improvement to the profit side may be visible.

Second, from the perspective of liquidity, the overseas economy has shown a very obvious fatigue recently, including the obvious easing of inflationary pressure, soThe intensity of raising interest rates next year will be at least two percent.At the beginning of the quarterslowly的Slow down.。

Third, we all know very well that at a time when the global economic pressure is great, on the contrary, it will be relatively soft at the economic and trade level, and this will have a neutral and positive impact on risk votes.

14. The advantages of Hong Kong stock investment can be seen from three perspectives.

First, Hong Kong stocks are relatively cheap as a wholeThis is a key standard for the safety margin of investment.

Second, there are many Hong Kong stocks.Assets that are relatively scarce in A-shares。

Third, this is a place where global capital liquidity converges.

15. The shortcomings of Hong Kong stocks are also obvious. once there is a great change in overseas liquidity, many overseas investors will not pay special attention to the valuation and whether they have entered a value investment range. It is more likely that liquidity is pumped away.

16, the risk points of Hong Kong stocks can be explained more clearly from three aspects (profit side, valuation side, risk preference).

First, there is no doubt that if the epidemic next year repeatedly exceeds expectations, the pressure on the domestic economy will still be relatively great.

Second, the United States, including other developed countries, will have a greater crackdown on liquidity if overall liquidity is expected to withdraw rapidly and interest rates are not raised at the same pace as everyone expected.

Third, risk preference is more due to the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts, which may have a certain risk impact on the Hong Kong stock market, but this is a small probability event after all.