Zhitong Financial APP learned that last month$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The slowest holiday season growth in history is forecast, but now there are signs that the global e-commerce giant may have a better Christmas than expected.

Jefferies survey results show that prices are slowing in all categories except rents and groceries. Despite rising interest rates, Americans continued to spend, with retail sales rising at their fastest pace in eight months in October. Meanwhile, analysts expect Amazon.Com Inc's fourth-quarter revenue to reach the expected high end, rising 6.7 per cent to $146.6 billion, a slower but not a disaster compared with 9.4 per cent last year.

When asked about the holiday outlook last October, Amazon.Com Inc's chief financial officer, Brian Olsavsky, expressed moderate optimism, but this year's forecast has become extremely difficult. Online sales in November and December are expected to rise 12% from a year earlier, Insider Intelligence said. But in October, Adobe Inc expects growth of just 2.5 per cent, down from 8.6 per cent in 2021.

Although Americans have spread their holiday shopping over longer periods in recent years, the five-day period from Black Friday and Cyber Monday to the so-called "Cyber 5" period is expected to account for about 1/6 of the quarter's shopping transactions. Dan Brownsher, CEO of Channel Key, an e-commerce consultancy, said: "after Cyber Monday, we will know whether shoppers are really cutting spending or are just waiting for big discounts." Cyber 5 is the golden age, when all transactions are taking place and all traffic is happening. We just don't know yet.

Despite layoffs in technology, finance and real estate, most people are still working and eager for discounts, said Andrew Lipsman, an analyst at Insider Intelligence. Retailers offered only a 10-20% discount last year, but this year they will see a 30-40% discount as retailers compete with each other to clear inventory. "We have entered an environment of greater discounts and consumers are looking for discounts," Lipsman said. Consumers are annoyed by inflation, but they still have disposable income.

For merchants who account for more than half of Amazon.Com Inc's online sales, it largely depends on what they sell, and some categories are not expected to perform particularly well this holiday season. Electronics may be another victim, in part because many Americans bought large quantities of televisions, computers and accessories during the outbreak and have no plans to upgrade.

Bernie Thompson, chief technology officer of Plugable in Redmond, Washington, said searches for laptop interfaces and other products so far in November were down about 20 per cent from the previous month. Thompson is lowering prices and increasing advertising budgets in an attempt to boost sales. "We expect consumer electronics to have a whiplash effect from scarcity to excess, but it's happening faster than anyone thinks."