▍The fourth quarter is an important time to consolidate economic stability, and pay close attention to the implementation of policies.

This meeting added relevant statements such as the importance of economic operation in the fourth quarter to the economy for the whole year, making it clear that the current is the "critical point" for consolidating the foundation of economic repair, and it is expected that the policy of stabilizing growth will continue to be carried out during the year. The meeting mentioned that in the follow-up period, we will "pay close attention to the implementation" of previous policy and development financial instruments, and at the same time speed up the "acceleration of capital payment and construction of major projects", promote the formation of physical workload and at the same time drive private investment, and pay attention to the issuance of equipment renewal and re-loans, requiring that "speed up equipment purchase and transformation" and guide policy tools to show results in the real economy.

▍The National standing Committee announced that the reserve reduction did not exceed expectations, and the time was earlier than expected.

In history, it is often mentioned that after the RRR cut, the RRR announcement is often delayed by 2 to 4 days, while the RRR landing is often delayed by 8 to 12 days, so it is expected that this round of RRR reduction may occur in December, which is in line with our previous judgment. However, the shortage of funds in the early stage and the proposal of the central bank's third-quarter monetary policy implementation report to be "vigilant against inflationary pressures" greatly cooled market expectations for the operation of monetary policy easing again, and it was mentioned only a week later that the reserve requirement cut did exceed expectations to a certain extent. The drivers of this reduction are the liquidity gap caused by the downward liquidity water level, the increase in recent fluctuations in the bond market, and the re-emergence of the impact of the scattered point epidemic. The reduction is not only used to supplement the liquidity water level, but also a means to promote the expected stability of the bond market. The impact of the spread point epidemic on the economy, "to consolidate the upward trend of economic stability and do a good job of economic work at the end of the year to provide a suitable liquidity environment."

▍We will promote the implementation of the Baojiao building policy as soon as possible, and require more support for bond issuance to private enterprises.

Recently, the "second Arrow" private enterprise financing support tools have been postponed and expanded, and the "16 Financial articles" and other broad credit and wide real estate policies have been centrally introduced. The first purpose of this meeting is to continue the policy position that the "Financial 16 articles" should also protect the main body of the PICC project, emphasizing the landing of Baojiao building loans. Second, in response to the expansion of the "second Arrow" tool, it is mentioned that "increasing support for bond issuance by private enterprises" is expected to speed up the pace of follow-up credit repair.

▍The healthy development of the platform economy, the smooth flow of transportation and logistics, and financial support entities are also the focus of the meeting.

The meeting mentioned "supporting the sustained and healthy development of the platform economy", which is more positive than the presentation of the platform economy at the meeting of the political Bureau in July. In addition, in the two aspects of "ensuring the smooth flow of e-commerce and express delivery networks", "ensuring the smooth flow of trunk roads and microcirculation, and ensuring the normal operation of collection and distribution of ports," the meeting expressed the importance of ensuring smooth logistics in order to reshape and restore the post-epidemic industrial chain. Finally, in addition to the expressions of lowering the reserve requirement and supporting the issuance of bonds by private enterprises, the meeting also mentioned structural policy tools to guide banks to continue to make profits on inclusive small and micro loans to support the real economy, and it is expected that the follow-up structural tools will work with aggregate tools such as reserve requirement cuts to help repair the economy.

▍Bond market strategy:

After the forecast of the current National standing Committee, the actual landing time of the benchmark reduction may come relatively soon, and the slightly higher-than-expected reduction will inject confidence into the bond market, which is pessimistic about monetary policy expectations and worried about redemption. Interest rates are expected to usher in a round of decline. However, after the landing of this cut, there is less room for imagination for further easing of monetary policy, and it is expected that there will be more policy space for broad credit at the policy level. the trend of interest rates will return to the logic of the development of the epidemic, the landing of broad credit policies, tight liquidity balance, and tortuous repair of fundamentals, and it is still difficult for long-end interest rates to get rid of the shock pattern.