According to the minutes of the Fed's November 1-2 policy meeting released on Wednesday, its internal economists predict that the likelihood of a recession in the US next year has risen to nearly 50 per cent because of a slowdown in consumer spending, risks to the global economy and the risk of further interest rate increases. This is the first time the Fed has issued such a warning since it began raising interest rates in March.

"sluggish growth in real private spending in the US, a deteriorating global outlook and tighter financial conditions are all seen as significant downside risks predicted by real activity; in addition, a sustained decline in inflation may require greater fiscal tightening than expected, which is seen as another downside risk," the minutes said. "

"as a result, Fed staff continue to judge that the risk of the baseline forecast for actual economic activity is skewed downwards and that the economy is almost as likely to fall into recession sometime next year as the baseline forecast," the minutes said. "

It is reported that influential staff on the Federal Reserve Board play an important role in the monetary policy-making process, preparing briefings and forecasts for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants on economic conditions, while FOMC participants make the final decision on interest rates.

By contrast, economists surveyed by the media this month put the chances of the US economy falling into recession next year at 65 per cent. The media's economic model puts the probability at 100%.

At this meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row, three times the usual level, to reduce inflation. Us inflation has soared to its highest level in 40 years this year.

But Fed officials also hinted that they would soon slow the pace of tightening, giving the Fed more time to judge the impact of previous interest rate hikes on the economy.

At a press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told reporters that he thought "no one knows whether there will be a recession, and if so, how serious the recession will be."