On Wednesday, the initial PMI reading for the US Markit manufacturing sector in November was 47.6, lower than the expected reading of 50, and the previous value was 50.4, the lowest in 30 months. The initial PMI of the Markit service sector in the United States in November was 46.1, also lower than the expected value of 47.9, with a previous value of 47.8.

Chris Williamson, chief economist of market intelligence at S&P Global Inc., said business conditions deteriorated across the United States in November. According to preliminary PMI surveys, output and demand are falling at a faster rate, in line with the economy's annual contraction of 1 per cent. Companies reported a rising cost of living, tighter financial conditions, particularly higher borrowing costs and a growing headwind from weak demand in domestic and export markets.

Williamson points out that the reduction in pressure on the supply chain is partly a symptom of falling demand, but hiring has been slow everywhere so far in the fourth quarter as companies focus on reducing costs.In this environment, while inflationary pressures are likely to continue to cool in the coming months, there is still a possibility that the US economy will slip further into recession.

The subsequent consumer survey of the university of Michigan in November showed that the one-year inflation rate was expected to be 4.9%, lower than the expected 5.10%, and the previous value was 5.10%.

Joanne Hsu, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, saidInflation expectations are also virtually unchanged from October.The median expected inflation rate for the year is 4.9 per cent, down slightly from 5.0 per cent last month. Long-term inflation expectations are currently 3.0 per cent and have remained within a narrow range of 2.9 per cent (albeit rising) for 15 of the past 16 months. The uncertainty of these expectations is still high, indicating that the stability of these expectations may not necessarily last.

Specifically, the consumer confidence index fell 5 per cent from October, offsetting an increase of about 1/3 since its all-time low in June.In addition to the continuing impact of inflation, rising borrowing costs, falling asset values and weaker labour market expectations have also dragged down consumer confidence.Purchases of durable goods improved significantly last month, but fell most sharply in November, down 19 per cent from September on the basis of high interest rates and persistently high prices. Long-term business conditions have declined by 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal financial conditions have remained virtually unchanged.

On the labor marketIn the week ended Nov. 19, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States was 240000, the biggest increase since the week of August 13, 2022, and is expected to be 225000, compared with a previous figure of 223000. The number of renewed claims for unemployment benefits in the week to November 12 was 1.551 million, with an expected number of 1.517 million, with a previous value of 1.507 million.

Economists have been keeping a close eye on the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in recent weeks because these data have been early warning indicators of recession in the past. Although the index has recovered from its low in May, it is still well below last year's level and historical average.

The agency believes thatThe number of US jobless claims rose faster than expected to a three-month high in a sign of a cooling labour market.

With the advent of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, market liquidity has reduced or exacerbated price volatility. The minutes of the Fed meeting in the early hours of Thursday will be the most closely watched financial event of the week, from which investors are looking for clues about future monetary policy.