Global macro

• The futures of the three major US stock indexes rose slightly before Wednesday's trading.

Before Wednesday's trading, the three major indexes of U. S. stocks rose slightly near the Thanksgiving holiday. Despite the lukewarm trading mood, the minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting, released later today, still attract a lot of attention. At the same time, the number of new jobless claims has been advanced to today because tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.U. S. stocks will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and close three hours early on Friday.

• The minutes of the Fed meeting may show that consensus and differences coexist, and the "hawkish peak" is approaching?

The Fed will release the minutes of its November monetary policy meeting at 3 a.m. on Thursday, which is expected to hint at a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes, but interest rates will peak higher than previously expected. This is in line with what Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at at a news conference after the FOMC meeting in November. In addition to inflation and employment data, the weak economic outlook is also hampering the Fed's interest rate path. The Fed's tightening policy is increasing the debt burden on households, leading to a rapid decline in excess savings, which could push its hawkish stance close to its peak.

• Morgan Stanley: inflation will remain stubborn next year, and US stocks may face "extreme volatility"

Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said on Tuesday that investors should be prepared for "extreme volatility" in 2023 as the US economy will experience the boom-bust inflationary cycle of the 1940s. In the 1940s, supply and demand finally balanced, but inflation remained stubborn, which could be a clue to next year's economic outlook, the analyst said.

• At odds with FED? Professor at Wharton School: the US economy is faltering and interest rates should be cut to 2% next year

Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School of Business, warned that the Fed needs to realise that inflation is cooling and the US economy is faltering, or risk triggering an unnecessary recession and a decline in corporate profits. Siegel predicts that the Fed will eventually be soberly aware of the economic reality and shift from raising interest rates to cutting them. It said it would not be surprised if the federal funds rate fell to 2% by the end of 2023.

• Goldman Sachs Group predicts that if the United States does not cut interest rates next year, the yield on 10-year US bonds will be more than 4%.

Goldman Sachs Group said the Fed would avoid economic contraction in its fight against inflation and that US 10-year Treasury yields would remain at 4 per cent or higher at least until the end of 2024. The bank said that in a non-recession where inflation is higher than the Fed's target, the Fed seems unlikely to cut interest rates as currently expected. For now, swap traders are betting that Fed officials will raise the benchmark interest rate to a high of just over 5 per cent around June next year and then fall to about 4.6 per cent by the end of 2023.

• Under the double blow of high house prices and soaring interest rates, the number of Q3 investment and home purchases in the United States has plummeted by 30%.

As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates and house prices remain high, the US real estate market has cooled rapidly, and investors' home purchases fell sharply in the third quarter of this year. Property purchases by investors across the country fell 30.2% year-on-year, the biggest drop since the COVID-19 outbreak, real estate agency Redfin said on Tuesday. The decline exceeded the 27.4% drop in overall home purchases.

Hot news

• Most star technology stocks rose before Wednesday's trading.

• Musk revealed Tesla, Inc. 's plan to build a factory in Asia, saying that South Korea is one of the preferred places to invest.

Musk, chief executive of $Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $, said in a video call with South Korean President Yoon Sik-Yue that the company plans to build another super factory in Asia to produce electric cars, and pointed out that South Korea is one of the preferred places to invest, according to the South Korean president's office. Mr Musk added that he would make a decision after a comprehensive assessment of investment conditions such as manpower and technology.

• Manchester United rose nearly 8% before the session, Cristiano Ronaldo officially left the team, and the owner explored to sell the club.

Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo has officially left the club after reaching an agreement with the club, Manchester United Football Club announced yesterday. Manchester United also said its owner said it would explore a deal to sell the Premiership club. As of the press release$Manchester United (MANU.US)$It was up nearly 8% before the day.

• Nordstrom was down more than 7% before trading and lost $20 million in the third quarter.

$Nordstrom (JWN.US) $third quarter revenue of $3.546 billion, market expectations of $3.51 billion; net loss of $20 million, net profit of $64 million in the same period last year. As of press time, Nordstrom was down more than 7% before trading.

• Speed up electrification! General Motors Co plans to launch more than 15 pure electric models in China in the next three years.

General Motors Co (GM.US) $announced on Tuesday that the company plans to launch more than 15 pure electric vehicles based on the Ultium platform in China by 2025, when the company expects profits in the electric vehicle business to be on a par with fuel vehicles.

• Has the market capitalization hit rock bottom after plummeting by $300 billion? Morgan Stanley is bullish on Tesla, Inc. again.

The market value of $Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $has lost nearly $300 billion in two months, and a growing number of analysts are saying that the company's share price has fallen far enough. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said on Wednesday that Tesla, Inc. was approaching his "bearish target price" of $150, which provided investors with a bargain-hunting opportunity. The analyst reiterated his target price of $330. He also stressed that Tesla, Inc. is likely to benefit from U. S. consumer tax credits.

• Goldman Sachs Group: best Buy's profit margin will still be under pressure to maintain its "sell" rating.

Goldman Sachs Group analyst Kate McShane published a research report, raising the target price of $BBY.US (Best Buy) $from $56 to $59, maintaining a "sell" rating. The analyst said Best Buy reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, but noted that fourth-quarter guidance meant the company's performance had slowed month-on-month compared with pre-epidemic trends. McShane believes the company's profit margins will still be under pressure.

• Canaccord: reiterate Apple Inc's buy rating and target price of 200USD

Canaccord analysts say consumers are interested in those with higher prices$Apple (AAPL.US)$Demand for iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max remains high, causing us to slightly lower our estimates. Supply chain constraints have adversely affected the assembly of iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and the analyst expects supply to outstrip demand in the March quarter. He reiterated his buy rating for Apple Inc and his target price of $200.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Most of the hot Chinese stocks rose before the day.

• Lufax Holding Ltd rose more than 3% before trading and will release financial results after trading.

$Lufax (LU.US)$Earnings per share are expected to be 17 cents per share on revenue of $1.99 billion, which will be released after trading on Nov. 23. As of press time, Lufax Holding Ltd was up more than 3 per cent before trading.

• Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. 's revenue in the third quarter was 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 45.7% over the same period last year.

Digital freight platform $Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM.US) $releases third quarter 2022 results. In that quarter, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. achieved revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 45.7% over the same period last year, once again exceeding the highest value previously expected. Non-GAAP 's net profit reached 490 million yuan, compared with a loss of 4.7 million yuan in the same period last year. As of press time, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was up more than 7% before trading.

• Morgan Stanley: it is estimated that Bilibili Inc. 's share price will fall within 60 days, and its rating will keep pace with the big market.

According to the technical opinion report issued by Morgan Stanley$Bilibili (BILI.US)$The recent rise in share prices has made its short-term valuation less attractive. The group's shares have rebounded more than 50 per cent since late October, while the Hang Seng technology index has rebounded by more than 25 per cent. The group is about to report third-quarter results, and it is widely believed that its gaming and advertising revenues in the second half of the year and next year are too high, and there is a potential balance sheet risk in 2024. The bank estimates that the group's share price will fall over the next 60 days, a probability of about 70 to 80 per cent, which is likely to happen. The bank gave it a target price of $11, rated in line with the market.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

21:30 the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits in the current week

22:45 initial PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States

22:45 initial PMI of Markit service industry in the United States

23:00 final value of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence Index

23:00 US one-year inflation rate is expected

23:00 Total sales of new homes in the United States annualized

23:30 US weekly EIA crude oil inventory

23:30 US weekly EIA strategic oil reserve inventory

The next day

01:00 US weekly EIA natural gas inventory

03:00 Fed FOMC releases minutes of November monetary policy meeting