This report is read as follows:
The current yellow chicken cycle reversal, the company as the yellow chicken chilled products industry leader, with a strong network channel layout and leading cold chain fresh-keeping technology advantages, the future with the continuous expansion of production capacity and channels, is expected to step into the fast lane of growth.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. We maintain the company's 2022-2024 EPS estimate of 1.31,2.12,2.28 yuan, and maintain the company's target price of 56.34 yuan.
The performance is in line with expectations. The company released its three-quarter report for 2022, showing a nearly 20-fold increase in net profit compared with the same period last year.
In the third quarter, the company's operating income was 1.107 billion yuan, an increase of 40% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 92.3531 million yuan, an increase of 1925.83% over the same period last year.
The cycle of Yellow Feather Chicken reversed, and its performance turned from deficit to profit compared with the same period last year. Supply side: affected by trading losses during the epidemic, the industry has started a two-year pace of de-production, and capacity contraction has been transmitted from ancestral breeder chickens to commercial broilers.
And at present, the parental stock column of yellow chicken is at a low level. as of September 2022, the total stock of parental chicken seedlings is 23 million sets, which is still 3.03% lower than the same period last year. Demand side: the demand shows seasonal growth in the second half of the year, and the consumption of yellow chicken has improved. Both supply and demand support commodity generation chicken seedling prices have continued to rise since April, and the reversal of yellow chicken has also contributed to a year-on-year turnaround in performance. The fourth quarter is the peak season of traditional consumption, downstream merchants, market demand growth is expected to further improve the performance.
The ice-fresh business is leading in the industry and actively arranges the industrial cluster. The company has a series of complete and efficient supply chain system, such as breeding, slaughtering and processing, cold chain logistics, chilled self-management, e-commerce and so on. It is a leading enterprise in the field of chilled yellow chicken. Xiangjia shares is committed to building a green circular economy industrial chain of 100 million meat birds, 10 million egg birds, 1 million live pigs, 500000 tons of organic fertilizer and 100000 tons of Shimen citrus within five years. The completion of Tianxinyan Pig breeding Farm marks the formal construction of the whole industry chain of millions of live pigs in cooperation with Wuzhou Hengtong organic brands to promote the production standardization of chilled chicken products and expand the development advantages of enterprises.
Risk tips: epidemic risk, raw material price fluctuations, the company's scale expansion is not up to expectations.