This report is read as follows:
Downstream photovoltaic, silicone pull industrial silicon demand, dry season to industrial silicon prices easy to rise and fall. As the leader of silicon industry chain, the company distributes photovoltaic industry chain products such as polysilicon, which is expected to bring value reshaping.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. Due to the downward impact of product prices, the company's performance is under short-term pressure. Reduce the company's EPS for 22-23 years to 5.37,8.20 yuan (originally 8.52 EPS 9.22 yuan), and add 24-year EPS to 9.31 yuan. With reference to the comparable company, give the company 25 times the valuation and lower the target price to 134.25 yuan (originally 167.86 yuan).
22Q3's performance is in line with expectations. 22Q3 performance is under pressure, 22 the company's revenue in the first three quarters was 18.275 billion yuan, + 29.09% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 4.554 billion yuan,-9.17% compared with the same period last year. Among them, 22Q3 income is 5.275 billion yuan,-17.74% year-on-year, month-on-month-20.19%; net profit is 1.009 billion yuan, year-on-year-61.62%, month-on-month-32.42%. Mainly industrial silicon, silicone prices continue to decline.
Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to rise in the future. Demand side: polysilicon, organosilicon brings demand growth, silicon aluminum alloy and exports slightly increase. Supply side: the incremental Laizi Hesheng Shashan project is 400,000 tons / year (expected to reach Q4 production) in 22 years. Yunnan Hesheng Industrial Silicon Phase I will be put into production at 22Q4, and the rest of the medium-sized and above production capacity will be put into production at the end of 22 or 23 years.
It is expected that the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon is in tight balance. As 22Q4 and 23Q1 enter the dry season, there will be a quarterly gap between supply and demand. We believe that the demand is picking up and the price of industrial silicon is expected to rise.
Growth is the main logic, volume increase and photovoltaic industry chain may bring value reshaping. Angle of quantity: industrial silicon, organosilicon monomers and downstream greatly expand production. In addition, there are industrial chain extension of 200000 tons of polysilicon and 3 million tons of photovoltaic glass not included in the market capitalization expectations, we believe that the intrinsic value of repair space is still very large, growth need not worry.
Risk hint: the project under construction is less than expected and the risk of fluctuation of product volume and price