This report is read as follows:
At present, the company is still in a period of contraction, and profit margins continue to decline with the industry. As the recovery cycle of industry fundamentals is longer than expected, the company's development business continues to be under pressure. The company owns the core property of Beijing Financial Street to resist downside risks.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the overweight rating and maintain the target price of 11.81 yuan. Maintain the expected revenue growth rate of 14%, 10% and 10% in 2022-2024, 7%, 13% and 12% in 2022-2024, and the estimated EPS of 0.59,0.66 and 0.74 yuan respectively in 2022-2024. At present, social integration and M2 continue to maintain the scissors gap, and the logic of asset shortage continues to be deduced. the company is the main operator of high-quality office buildings in Beijing Financial Street, maintaining the target price of 11.81 yuan.
The company is currently in a period of contraction, and profit margins continue to decline. In the third quarter of 2022, the company achieved operating income of 4.91 billion yuan and net profit of 230 million yuan, up 17.0% and 54.7% respectively over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved an operating income of 15.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, an increase of 60.5% and 23.8% respectively over the same period last year. The net interest rate was 8.9%, which continued to decline from the 10.8% level of the half-year.
The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the development business continues to be under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved a total sales volume of 21.14 billion yuan and a sales area of 89.7 million square meters, down 26.3% and 37.8% respectively from the same period last year. With the continuous introduction and landing of loose policies in the real estate industry, the company's sales are expected to improve gradually with the industry. As the industry is still in a state of definancialization, the current policy is mainly focused on the demand side, which lengthens the market demand recovery cycle, and the overall fundamentals are expected to remain weak in 2022, resulting in short-term pressure on the company's development business.
The company's high-quality holding property revaluation, thickening performance. In the third quarter of 2022, the Financial Street Center, the Financial Street (Yuetan) Center and the Financial Building produced fair value changes in profit and loss (before tax) of 1.9,0.8 and 10 million yuan, respectively, increasing the company's net profit belonging to the parent company by 205 million yuan.
Risk hint: the growth rate of sales in Zhongcang cities is out of control, and the epidemic brings about a decline in commercial rents.
