The time lag of performance cashing is long, and the growth rate of income and profit is under short-term pressure. In the third quarter, the company realized operating income of 3.137 billion yuan, + 1.21% compared with the same period last year, and realized a net profit of 66.86 million yuan,-8.5% compared with the same period last year. From the beginning of the year to the end of the third quarter, the operating income was 9.4 billion yuan,-5.07% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 251 million yuan, + 8.30% compared with the same period last year. Considering that the infrastructure projects that the company participates in generally have a large amount of money and a long construction period, there will be a long time lag between the orders brought by "stable growth of infrastructure" and the realization of performance, and the acceleration of subsequent construction progress is expected to promote performance repair.
The newly signed project orders have increased rapidly, and the installed scale of power generation has accelerated. In the third quarter, the company signed newly signed engineering orders of 4.746 billion yuan, + 71.2% compared with the same period last year, and accumulated 12.81 billion yuan of newly signed engineering orders in the first three quarters, totaling + 109.7% compared with the same period last year. From the beginning of the year to the third quarterly report, the company's power generation business was newly connected to the grid and installed 310.9MW, which was + 314.5% over the same period last year. The installation of power generation business accelerated in line with expectations, creating the company's second growth pole. The company's on-hand framework agreement involves that the installed scale exceeds that of 10GW. With the continuous progress of project approval and feasibility research, the company is expected to land a large number of new energy power generation projects in the next 1-2 years.
The ability to control administrative expenses is strong, and the pressure drop of financial expenses is still under pressure. The management expense rate of the company in the first three quarters of 2022 was 1.94%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points over 2021, still maintaining the industry's leading level.
The company's financial expense rate in the first three quarters was 4.56%, an increase of 0.46% over 2021, or due to a significant increase in clean energy investment and a corresponding increase in the scale of long-term borrowing. The company is planning to increase 2 billion yuan to supplement working capital and support investment in clean energy power generation projects, which is expected to ease the financial pressure to some extent.
Investment advice: maintain profit forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings.
It is predicted that the company's revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 will be 13.24%, 9.96%, 9.08%, 22.7%, 18.8%, 14.7%, 0.33, 0.40, and 0.46 yuan, respectively, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 21.2, 17.8, 15.6. The relative valuation method estimates a reasonable valuation of 8.01-9.52 yuan in 2023, covering it for the first time and giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: infrastructure investment is not as expected, clean energy power generation policy adjustment, power generation project framework agreement landing is not as expected, competition in the construction industry is intensified, power generation project framework agreement landing is not as expected, the risk of relatively concentrated operating area, rising financing costs, restructuring and increasing the risk of failure.
