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戴维医疗(300314):电动吻合器龙头企业 联盟集采驱动业绩腾飞

David Healthcare (300314): Electric stapler leading enterprise alliances gather to drive performance take-off

開源證券 ·  Nov 22, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Electric stapler leading enterprise, alliance collection drive performance take off, cover for the first time, give "buy" rating company wholly-owned subsidiary Verkaidi for domestic electric endoscope stapler track leading enterprise, product continuous iterative innovation to meet clinical minimally invasive demand, Fujian alliance collection policy landing is expected to promote the rapid growth of electric endoscope stapler business, the company's baby care business as the cornerstone business can provide stable cash flow We estimate that the company's net return profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.95 hundred and fifty-five hundred million yuan, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.33, 0.54 and 0.80, respectively, and the current share price corresponding to Pmax E will be 43.6, 26.8 and 18.0 times, respectively. Compared with similar companies, it has a valuation performance-price ratio and is given a "buy" rating for the first time.

Stapler cavity mirroring and electrification is the general trend. The collection policy of electric stapler is expected to speed up the domestic market scale of nearly 7 billion yuan for replacement of domestic stapler in 2020, and 988 million yuan for electric endoscopic stapler. It is estimated that the market size of stapler in 2025 will reach 15 billion yuan, of which the market size of electric mirror stapler will exceed 5.4 billion yuan, and CAGR will exceed 40%. At present, imports account for more than 7 billion yuan. Although Verkaidi is the leader in China, its market share is still less than 10%. At the same time, there are only a handful of competitors with production capacity and sales volume of more than 20 million yuan. At present, the localization rate of electric mirror stapler track is low, the growth space is large, and the competition pattern is good. There is still a big gap in the rate of minimally invasive surgery between China and developed countries, but minimally invasive surgery is expected to gradually replace open surgery because of its advantages such as less trauma and quick recovery after operation. endoscopic stapler is an important surgical instrument for minimally invasive surgery, among which electric endoscopic stapler will be the trend of the times because of its clinical value. In the collection and mining rules of Fujian Alliance, the highest quotation of electric mirror stapler is higher, the drop is more mild, and a drop of 40% is intended to be selected. Due to the difference in ex-factory prices of domestic and foreign brands, it is expected that imported brands will be transferred out of the market and will be competed by domestic companies; dealers will also have more incentive to sell domestic brands because of profit margins, which will help domestic manufacturers to obtain more extra quantity. Among them, only 60 per cent of the decline in ≥ has the opportunity to participate in the distribution of the surplus of components such as the amount transferred, while imported brands are expected to be unable to participate and are divided by domestic products.

Vilkaidi, a subsidiary, has been precipitated in the market and technology for a long time, and is expected to use the force of collection to accelerate the performance release of stapler. It has been precipitated for 8 years and has been able to replace foreign products. In 2018, it obtained the first registration certificate of electric endoscopic stapler in China, and now there are 4 registration certificates, of which one is Ⅲ (only three in China). Ⅲ is better in the scope of surgical application and can close severed blood vessels. After four years of marketing and academic education, more than 300 third-class and first-class hospitals have been covered, and there will be a greater opportunity to compete for the remaining distribution of collection in the alliance; at the same time, the company is expected to speed up access and rapidly improve hospital coverage through collection and acquisition. Breakthrough before the sales of weak provinces such as Zhejiang, the company's domestic electric mirror stapler performance is expected to accelerate the release. Overseas stapler markets such as North America and Southeast Asia have hatched successfully, but the base is relatively low and is expected to grow rapidly.

Risk hint: the company's new product promotion is not as expected, and the collection policy is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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