The current situation of the company
Recently, the company announced that the application for non-public offering of shares has been approved by the CSRC, and it is expected that the non-public offering will not exceed about 99.848 million new shares within 12 months.
We believe that the company's photovoltaic film business technology, products and other competitive advantages, with the smooth increase of approval, the company's photovoltaic film business capacity is expected to expand rapidly, break through the growth ceiling, and drive the rapid rise of the company.
Comment
1. It is estimated that the production capacity of photovoltaic film will be expanded by 450 million square meters, supporting rapid growth in the medium and long term. According to the company announcement, the company plans to increase the production capacity of solar encapsulation film by 450 million square meters, adding a total of 32 transparent EVA films, 7 white synergistic EVA films and 21 POE/EPE film production lines, to achieve simultaneous production of transparent EVA, white synergistic EVA films and POE/EPE and other multiple film production capacity. We believe that the smooth landing of this additional investment project is expected to help the company's annual photovoltaic film production capacity from the current 160 million square meters to 510 million square meters in 2024, and POE/EPE and other high-performance film production capacity is also expanded, is expected to optimize the product structure, medium-and long-term rapid growth is expected.
2. The company's photovoltaic film business products and technical advantages are widely recognized by downstream customers. We believe that the company has laid out the photovoltaic film business for more than 10 years, successfully created a stable and efficient manufacturing system and excellent technology, and the manufacturing cost of single flat film ranks among the leading level in the industry. its high-quality product quality has been widely recognized by Zhengtai, Oriental Risheng, a new energy and other downstream high-quality customers.
3. It is optimistic about the rapid growth prospect of the company's photovoltaic film business and is expected to become the first echelon in the industry. We expect that with the gradual release of upstream silicon supply, the decline in silicon prices is expected to drive the operating rate of downstream photovoltaic modules and the marginal demand for photovoltaic film to improve. With the rapid expansion of production capacity, the company's photovoltaic film business is expected to rely on excellent comprehensive competitiveness, on the one hand to increase the share of the stock of customers, on the other hand continue to obtain high-quality new customers, fully undertake the continuous demand for good, rapid and high-quality growth is expected.
Profit forecast and valuation
The earnings forecast for 2022amp will remain unchanged in 2023, with the current share price corresponding to 18 times Pmax E in 2023, outperforming the industry rating and target price of 16 yuan, and corresponding to 24 times Pmax E in 2023, which has 37% upside compared to the current stock price.
Risk.
Terminal demand is lower than expected; new capacity is not as expected; raw material prices fluctuate; cash flow risk.
