Main points of investment
Event: on the evening of November 22, the company issued an announcement on the signing of major contracts for daily operations.
With the newly signed 113 million contract order with Tianhe Group, the profitability of automation equipment is expected to last from August 20 to November 22. The company and the grandchildren and subsidiaries of Tianhe Group have signed contracts totaling about 113 million yuan for 12 months in a row, accounting for about 10% of revenue in 2021. The object of the contract is industrial automation equipment and transformation. The integrated company reported that the unconfirmed revenue-on-hand order amount is about 1.07 billion yuan, compared with a large increase, we believe that the company's main automation equipment profitability is expected to continue.
The premium of TOPCon is beginning to show, and it is expected that the average production expansion from 2023 to 2025 is expected to exceed that of 200GW. At present, the price of TOPCon battery is 0.07-0.12 yuan / W higher than that of PERC, which has a performance-to-price ratio compared with the cost side. At present, nearly 40GW TOPCon batteries have been put into production in the industry, and Jingke, Tianhe, Zhonglai, Jingao, Tongwei, Shangji, Junda, and one all have production expansion plans of different scales. It is expected that TOPCon battery expansion in 2022 is expected to exceed 80GW. 2023-2025 is expected to reach a peak, and the average annual production expansion is expected to exceed 200GW.
As a domestic photovoltaic automation leader, the company actively arranges technological innovation in TOPCon-related fields. In the future, with the gradual delivery of orders and the continuous increase of new projects, the profitability of the main business will continue to improve.
The leader of high-end automation equipment is expected to become the new entrant of battery process equipment. The company has the leading layout in the field of photovoltaic battery automation equipment, with the ability of PERC/TOPCON/HJT automation, as well as the application technology foundation of copper plating heterojunction production, and is expected to become a new entrant of battery process equipment in the future. According to the October announcement, the company is currently working with several customers to develop copper plating projects, has signed confidentiality agreements with corresponding partners in this field, and is actively promoting the research and development process of related projects. The company has newly developed a fourth set of scheme technology which is different from horizontal, vertical continuous and vertical rise and fall, which makes up or balances the defects of the previous scheme and has better advantages.
Looking to the future: "new energy + pan-semiconductor" dual main industry development, the future market capitalization has a large upward space 1) ficonTec: due to the epidemic and other factors, technical reasons will be terminated, the follow-up will restart the restructuring when the time is ripe and various conditions are in place, and it is expected that the overall valuation of the company will be further enhanced in the future. 2) Photovoltaic process equipment: the cost of HJT is expected to be equal to that of PERC battery in 2023, and the market space of related HJT process equipment is expected to open quickly. 3) Pan-semiconductor process equipment: the products can be compared with Core Source Micro and Shengmei Shanghai; generally speaking, it is expected that there is still a large upward space for the company's total market capitalization in the future.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company's homing net profit in 2022-2024 is 0.4 billion yuan, 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and the year-on-year growth in 2023-2024 is 187% Universe 81%, corresponding to PE 117 Universe 41 Universe 23X. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, new energy and pan-semiconductors are expected to increase their performance and maintain their "buy" rating in the future.
Risk hint
1) the expansion of new technology is not as expected; 2) the epidemic affects order delivery.