Event
According to the weekly quotation of China Eel net, the price of 3P American eel has risen for three consecutive weeks since October 28 this year, from 89 yuan / kg to 93 yuan / kg.
Comment
The market has entered the peak consumption season, and it is optimistic that the performance of eel culture will continue to be realized. Driven by the National Day, New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other holidays, the peak season of eel consumption is from October of each year to March of the following year. Under the influence of warmer demand, the price of eel has risen recently. According to China Eel net, the wholesale price of 3p American eel in Guangdong market is 89 yuan / kg from October 21 to October 27, 2022. Since then, the price of eel has risen for three consecutive weeks, rising to 93 yuan / kg from November 11 to November 17. The number of superimposed eel ponds is low during the peak consumption season, and eel prices are expected to continue to rise. In the third quarter of 2022, the company sold 2428.5 tons of eel (2000 tons more than the original sales plan). From January to September, the company has achieved 5819.4 tons of eel sales, achieving 72.74 percent of the annual target of 8000 tons of fish, and the annual eel sales are expected to exceed 8000 tons. Looking forward to Q4, the eel price boom upward stack costs continue to be optimized, and the company's profitability is expected to further improve. Looking forward to 2023, the insufficient natural catch of eel seedlings in 2022 will play a role in the decline of eel supply in 2023, driving up eel prices. Up to now, the company has put into production and produced fish one after another in Guangdong, Zhangzhou, Sanming and other aquaculture production bases. With the gradual release of production capacity, the eel output from the pond is expected to exceed 15000 tons in 2023. With the production and sales of eels, superimposed eel prices are expected to rise, and the eel farming business is expected to contribute to a high profit increase in 2023.
With the continuous deepening of the layout of the food business, the C-end has achieved remarkable results. While stabilizing the export channels, the company's food business actively expands domestic online and offline channels to create a series of brands such as "Eel Hall" and "Xinchanglong". In terms of production capacity, in the first three quarters of 2022, the company sold 1259.40 tons of roasted eel. With the increase of project production capacity, it is expected to achieve 10,000 tons of production capacity in the future. In terms of marketing, November eel Guan Xuan Xinguochao IP, the marketing effect is remarkable. During the Singles' Day, the daily sales volume of live broadcast exceeded 30,000 pieces, and Taobao No.1 roasted eel category. In the future, with the landing of the company's food industry construction project and the strengthening of domestic market promotion, the food business is expected to further boost the company's profitability.
Investment suggestion
Considering that the eel production capacity of the company is expected to be released smoothly, the superimposed fish price is expected to continue to rise, and the flexibility of high profit increase can be expected. We raise the company's profit forecast and estimate that the net profit of 2022max 2023 will be RMB 387100,002 million in 2024. The current share price corresponds to the PE of 19.63pm and 10.25max in 2024, which is upgraded to "highly recommended".
Risk hint
The risk of price fluctuation of natural disasters, diseases and raw materials.