The performance structure of the first three quarters of 2022 is divided, and the follow-up continues to be optimistic. 2022Q1-3 realized revenue of 1.53 billion, yoy 14.77%; return to the mother net profit of 34 million, yoy-66.97%. The company's revenue grew steadily in the first three quarters of 2022, mainly due to the substantial increase in revenue from the photovoltaic sector and the steady increase in sales of high-end optical films; profits were greatly affected by the rise in raw materials and the external environment, showing a short-term pressure trend. In the long run, we believe that the trend of the company's optical film, photovoltaic film and automotive film plate products is still good, while the company is actively developing high value-added products such as composite film and quantum dot film. Profitability is expected to further improve.
Photovoltaic film business has increased rapidly. As of 2022H1, in terms of solar backplane film, the company achieved delivery to a number of leading component companies, and the share of P-type and N-type module products increased. At the same time, new products such as TPO and transparent backplane successfully passed Jingke, Longji and other customer verification and mass production delivery. 2022H1's solar backpanel film revenue was 427 million, an increase of 78.7% over the same period last year, accounting for 41.5% of the company's 2022H1 revenue.
The demand for photovoltaic backplane continues to increase with the installed capacity. With the transformation of the global energy structure to the direction of diversification, cleanliness and low carbon, more and more countries and regions will actively participate in the commercial development and utilization of solar photovoltaic power generation to promote the sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. According to the data and forecasts of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, optimistically, the new installed capacity of the world will reach 270GW in 2023, while the more conservative perspective also gives a forecast of 16% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025. The photovoltaic backplane is located on the back of the photovoltaic panel, which protects and supports the battery. Although the manufacturing cost of photovoltaic backplane accounts for only 3% of the manufacturing cost of photovoltaic modules, its performance and quality directly determine the service life and power generation efficiency of solar modules.
On the scale of 10 billion yuan, the growth rate of POE/EPE is remarkable. We assume that the photovoltaic installed capacity will increase to 1.2 per year on the basis of 2021, and that the corresponding film area per GW in 2022-2025 will be 1000-1300 square meters. According to the CPIA data, it is assumed that the permeability of China's POE+EPE will increase gradually on the basis that the permeability of China will be about 23% in 2021. At the same time, it is assumed that the price of POE&EPE is gradually falling. Finally, the approximate scale of POE&EPE is calculated. According to estimates, we expect the global scale of POE&EPE to reach 26.59 billion yuan by 2025, compared with 9.73 billion in 2021, CAGR 28.57%.
Profit forecast: exciting Technology is a domestic leader in display optical films, with the leading global position of display films, steady growth of high-end optical films, and the cost advantage is expected to expand under the integrated layout of the industry chain. new products such as solar backplane film and plastic film are expected to benefit from industry development and technology upgrading dividends to achieve rapid development. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 21.0130.64 billion yuan in 2022-2024. Realize the net profit of 0.58 pounds, 300,000 pounds, 401 million yuan. At present, the corresponding PE from 2022 to 2024 is 112.5 Universe 21.7Mab 16.2x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: intensified market competition, display technology update iteration, lower-than-expected profitability, measurement error risk.