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戎美股份(301088):优质线上服饰品牌 供应链优势明显

廣發證券 ·  Nov 20, 2022 00:00  · Researches

  Core idea Online clothing brand retail company with steady growth in performance. The company specializes in high-end women's clothing and is a well-known domestic online clothing brand retail company. In 2017-2021, the company's revenue showed a steady growth trend. In 2021, it achieved revenue of 872 million yuan (YOY +2.46%) and net profit of 163 million yuan (YOY +0.38%). The slowdown in growth was mainly due to the 2020 epidemic factors that caused the base to be too high; the epidemic affected local logistics in the second half of 2021; and the warm winter affected peak season sales. Deeply cultivate e-commerce platforms to create innovative and innovative supply chains and informatization advantages. (1) Clear target customers, target urban women aged 25-45, and have advantages such as high creditworthiness, number of fans, and customer reputation. (2) Outstanding planning and design capabilities, high frequency of updates 3 times a week and an average of nearly 4,000 high SPUs per year, effectively enhancing customer stickiness. (3) Build a flexible supply chain system to achieve a new Internet retail model where small orders are quickly reversed. (4) Online vertical layout, information systems effectively help operational efficiency. At present, an information management system for the entire business process has been formed, which fits the company's online retail business model. Optimistic about the company's future development. (1) In the context of a general environment where economic growth is declining, benefiting from the downgrade of consumption, Rong Mei is a high quality low ratio. The company selects raw materials and processors. Many of the fabrics are the same as luxury brands, and it is also the largest domestic cashmere sales brand. The processors are also at the leading level in the industry, but the price increase ratio is only 2 times, which is extremely cost-effective. (2) Being deeply involved in Taobao for many years, regular customers account for nearly 80% of consumption, and the one-time sales help rate is as high as 80%; in the past two years, it has also seized the trend of live streaming, further reducing drainage costs, and the cost rate has dropped dramatically. (3) Online sales are less affected by the epidemic. The company has adopted a pre-sale system. Pre-sale accounts for nearly 40%, with high turnover and low inventory. (4) Optimistic about the company's performance growth in the fourth quarter and next year. Growth is expected to accelerate under a low base. Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.80 yuan/share, 0.89 yuan/share, and 1.11 yuan/share in the year 2022 to 2024, respectively. Referring to comparable high-end women's clothing companies and comparable e-commerce industry companies, after comprehensive consideration, the company was given a PE valuation of 27 times in 2022, corresponding to a reasonable value of 21.53 yuan/share, covering the first time, and giving it an “increase in wealth” rating. Risk warning. The risk of increased market competition, the risk of outsourcing production management, and the risk of falling inventory prices.

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