Event: on November 18, the company successfully started the first carbonization line of the 12000 ton carbon fiber composite project. The production line is the first flat carbon fiber production line with the largest independent design and installation capacity in China. Through the upgrading of the equipment, the annual production capacity can reach more than 3000 tons.
The carbon fiber composite project is about to reach production, and the transformation in the field of new materials industry is progressing steadily. The carbon fiber composite successfully driven this time belongs to the 2021 private stock offering project, which mainly produces 12000 tons of extruded panels. The carbonization line is the first flat carbon fiber production line with the largest independent design and installation capacity in China. through the upgrading of the equipment, the annual output can reach more than 3000 tons. it further prolongs the production cycle, improves the safety and stability, and improves the product quality. At the same time, carbon fiber products can be used in areas such as wind power, photovoltaic and other green energy, as well as cars, rail transit and other lightweight fields. The start-up of this production line marks the steady and orderly progress of the company's goal of transformation to the new materials industry. After the production line reaches full production in the future, it is expected to achieve an average annual operating income of 1.54 billion yuan and a total annual profit of 142 million yuan, which is expected to significantly thicken the company's performance and fully improve the competitiveness of the industry.
The integrated layout of carbon fiber is becoming more and more perfect, and the high demand downstream is expected to fully consume the production capacity: in terms of small tow, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Jilin Cameike 600 tons of 1K and 3K small tow carbon fiber has been put into production. In terms of large tow, the company holds a 49% stake in Jilin Baodi, which currently has an annual carbon fiber production capacity of 8000 tons per year and plans to produce 12000 tons of carbon fiber by the end of 2025. Guoxing carbon fiber assets are expected to be injected into listed companies. Guoxing carbon fiber is expected to have a large tow carbon fiber production capacity of 22000 tons by the end of 2022. In terms of composite materials, the 12000-ton carbon fiber composite project will be put into production soon. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the application field of carbon fiber, the demand for carbon fiber in China is growing rapidly. According to the forecast of Guangzhou Saio, the demand for carbon fiber in China will total 62400 tons in 2021, is expected to reach 159200 tons in 2025, and the CAGR in four years is as high as 26.4%. It is expected to fully absorb the company's expansion capacity.
Years of viscose fiber leading enterprise technology accumulation, tamping the foundation of carbon fiber transformation. The company is the main manufacturer of viscose fiber in China, and viscose fiber is still the basic main business of the company. according to the 22 semi-annual report, the revenue of viscose fiber accounts for 95.56% of the total revenue. Carbon fiber laminate and viscose fiber both belong to the manufacturing field of chemical fiber, and their production factors have certain commonality. The company relies on its many years of technical accumulation and engineering management experience, it is expected to form a strong and continuous support for further improving the production process of carbon fiber and strengthening cost control. In addition, the company also through the participation of the company Qifeng chemical fiber layout upstream is the main raw material of carbon fiber polyacrylonitrile, tamping the foundation of transformed carbon fiber.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company's carbon fiber composite project has been successfully started and is progressing smoothly, and we still maintain the company's profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.491,187,000,000 yuan, respectively, and the equivalent EPS will be 0.02Compact 0.12yuan per share respectively. We are optimistic about the development prospect of the company's transformation and upgrading to carbon fiber products in the future, and maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: capacity release is lower than expected, product and raw material prices fluctuate, downstream demand is less than expected risk.