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恒实科技(300513):发力综合能源服务 虚拟电厂龙头乘风起航

Hengshi Technology (300513): Leading virtual power plants for integrated energy services set sail by the wind

中泰證券 ·  Nov 17, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Leading intelligent big data integrated solution providers and operators, across the power, communications two major industries. The company's main business is integrated energy service, communication design service and Wisdom application business, among which integrated energy service carries out virtual power plant, integrated energy transformation and electricity market transaction under the background of new power system construction. Communication design services are mainly carried out through the subsidiary Liaoning posts and Telecommunications Design Institute, including wireless design, transmission design, network design, chip design and so on. Smart Internet of things application business, covering ubiquitous power Internet of things, smart city, intelligent transportation, government and enterprise applications and other areas, focusing on power digitization. In order to seize the opportunity of the industry, the company plans to transfer shares into Shenzhicheng, a state-owned enterprise, as the controlling shareholder, giving full play to the synergy between the two sides in the fields of electric power, communications, Internet of things and so on.

The basic conditions of virtual power plant are already in place and will become an important flexible resource. The active promotion of thermal power flexibility transformation, pumped storage and new energy storage comes from the flexible and adjustable resource demand brought by the large-scale grid connection of new energy, and the above regulation methods are located on the generation side and the grid side. On the other hand, the virtual power plant solves the shortcomings and limitations of the power side by means of "aggregation", so that the power side can really play a regulatory role in the power system. At present, the basic conditions for the construction of virtual power plants are in place. On the one hand, the rapid development of distributed photovoltaic and electric vehicles provides components for virtual power plants, on the other hand, the relevant mechanisms such as electricity market-oriented transactions, auxiliary services and demand-side correspondence are continuously improved to provide a profit mechanism for virtual power plants.

Virtual power plant leader, rich project experience and customer resources. The company is one of the first enterprises to support the State Grid Corporation to promote the construction of virtual power plants, and participated in the first domestic virtual power plant project, the national power grid Hebei North Company, with the dual identity of the builder of the virtual power plant trading platform and the virtual power plant operator. valuable project experience has been accumulated in virtual power plants such as northern Hebei and Hunan. The company plans to invest 90 million yuan to build the energy aggregator operation control platform project and 115 million yuan to build the virtual power plant transaction operation platform project. The company is expected to achieve rapid growth in the two income sources of virtual power plant construction, development and operation services.

Investment suggestion: as the leading provider and operator of intelligent big data comprehensive solution in China, the company has strong advantages in technical capability, customer resources and project experience. at the same time, the company participates in the construction and operation of the first virtual power plant project in China. has accumulated valuable project experience, and has a deep understanding of virtual power plant dispatching and transaction. Under the background of the new power system, the construction of flexible resources is very important, and the virtual power plant is expected to become an important profit point of the company. At the same time, the actual controller of the company will be changed to Shen Zhicheng, which will have a synergistic effect with the company in the fields of electric power, communications and the Internet of things, and enhance the company's business development ability and credit standing. From 2022 to 2024, the company's operating income is expected to be 14.27,18.02 and 2.18 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 16.45%, 26.32% and 20.98% respectively over the same period last year. The net profit returned to the home is 1.05,1.47% and 177 million yuan respectively, up 156.85%, 39.14% and 20.70% respectively, and the corresponding PE is 33.

20,23.86,19.77 times. Coverage for the first time, giving the company an "overweight" rating.

Risk hints: the risk that the fixed increase is not as expected; the risk that the project research and development is not as expected; the risk of impairment of goodwill; and the risk that the public data used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in a timely manner.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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